土地征收的制度性批判与法治模式构建

土地征收问题已成为全面建设小康社会的热点、难点和焦点问题。一系列土地征收侵权性立法制度设计是导致问题的根本症结。解决问题的根本途径是构建符合中国实际的人本化土地征收法治模式制度。     

小流域综合治理及其效益评价研究进展

本文在纵览国内20多年来有关小流域综合治理及其效益评价研究文献的基础上，分别对小流域综合治理的相关概念、发展历程、治理模式、治理措施以及目前存在的问题等方面的研究进行了较为全面的回顾；总结了小流域综合治理效益评价的内容、标准和原则，对不同学者所建立的评价指标体系进行了比较分析，并从定性和定量两个方面综述了已有文献中所应用的效益评价方法；最后指出了现有研究中存在的问题，并提出了进一步研究的方向，以期对后续研究有所参考和启示。     

原则和出路:当代社会阶层变动下的利益关系调整

利益问题是关系到人的生存与发展的根本性问题。改革的过程实际上就是对社会各阶层既得利益的重新分配过程。文章针对当前各社会阶层之间利益冲突日益凸显的现象,以十六大精神为指导,从利益协调的原则和出路两方面着手,提出解决上述问题的思路。     

王安忆女性人物形象论

王安忆笔下的女性人物多是庸常之辈。她们精明世故,有小市民追逐物质利益的一面,但并不贪婪;她们地位卑微、生活艰辛,却能以顽强的毅力对抗生命的不幸和磨难,她们的身上跃动着强大的生命力和柔韧力。     

Bayesian Variable Selection Under Collinearity

In this article, we highlight some interesting facts about Bayesian variable selection methods for linear regression models in settings where the design matrix exhibits strong collinearity. We first demonstrate via real data analysis and simulation studies that summaries of the posterior distribution based on marginal and joint distributions may give conflicting results for assessing the importance of strongly correlated covariates. The natural question is which one should be used in practice. The simulation studies suggest that posterior inclusion probabilities and Bayes factors that evaluate the importance of correlated covariates jointly are more appropriate, and some priors may be more adversely affected in such a setting. To obtain a better understanding behind the phenomenon, we study some toy examples with Zellner’s g-prior. The results show that strong collinearity may lead to a multimodal posterior distribution over models, in which joint summaries are more appropriate than marginal summaries. Thus, we recommend a routine examination of the correlation matrix and calculation of the joint inclusion probabilities for correlated covariates, in addition to marginal inclusion probabilities, for assessing the importance of covariates in Bayesian variable selection.     

Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Multi-Variance Break and Level Shifts That Have Power Against the Piecewise Stationary Alternative

Structural breaks in the level as well as in the volatility have often been exhibited in economic time series. In this paper, we propose new unit root tests when a time series has multiple shifts in its level and the corresponding volatility. The proposed tests are Lagrangian multiplier type tests based on the residual's marginal likelihood which is free from the nuisance mean parameters. The limiting null distributions of the proposed tests are the χ²distributions, and are affected not by the size and the location of breaks but only by the number of breaks.

We set the structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses to relieve a possible vagueness in interpreting test results in empirical work. The null hypothesis implies a unit root process with level shifts and the alternative connotes a stationary process with level shifts. The Monte Carlo simulation shows that our tests are locally more powerful than the OLSE-based tests, and that the powers of our tests, in a fixed time span, remain stable regardless the number of breaks. In our application, we employ the data which are analyzed by Perron (1990), and some results differ from those of Perron's (1990).     

孟子义利思想辨析

孟子的义利思想不能简单概括为重义轻利。它至少包含先利后义、以利说义、先义后利三个层面。孟子的相关话语都有特定的语境,在阐释时必须进行语境还原。抽离语境而把论题普适化、绝对化,就会导致误读。     

儒商萌现--浅论《聊斋志异》中的商人形象

《聊斋志异》中,已经出现了儒商的形象,这是文言小说的重大收获.儒商形象的基本特征是诚信为本的经商道德,义利合一的经商准则,诗酒儒雅的经商心理,科学理性的商务管理和回报社会的人文关怀.与此同时,下位性、官本位和农耕圈是《聊斋志异》儒商的历史局限.     

“设官为民”的官民关系论

"设官为民"是中国传统政治思想视阈中最为典型的官民关系命题和官僚制度的基本原理。这一命题的基本思路是:从官僚产生的形上依据来说,上天爱民,设官代天牧民;从官僚权力的直接来源说,君不独治,设官佐君治民;从设官的社会根源说,民不自治,设官以治民;从君臣的政治责任角度说,君臣合道,设官为民事君;从君、臣、民的政治关系来说,忠君爱民,清正廉洁勤政有为是基本的官僚规范。对"设官为民"的官民关系进行总体分析和理论概括,将有助于我们全面认识中国古代统治思想的基本内涵和特征。     

四川省科技人才需求预测研究

根据四川省经济发展速度和目标,从科技人才开发利用现状出发,利用回归系统经济预测模型,对四川省2005-2010年科技人才需求量进行了预测。并从社会经济发展的角度分析了科技人才使用效益和预测结果的可行性,最终得出了四川省科技人才队伍质量和创新能力不断提高的结论,但仍存在科技人才增速缓慢,相对数量较少的问题。