马歇尔大法官与杰斐逊总统的恩怨——点评《杰斐逊全传》中的一段历史公案

约翰·马歇尔大法官和杰斐逊总统都是美国历史上著名的人物,但两人在担任联邦政府公职期间却一直冲突不断,尤其体现在“马伯里诉麦迪逊案”、弹劾蔡斯事件以及“伯尔叛国案”中.在这些冲突中二人的孰是孰非,是中外史学家的热门话题,论者往往依据个人偏好而有失公正.通过对刘祚昌先生晚年大作《杰斐逊全传》中马歇尔与杰斐逊关系的分析,本文试图更公正地评价二人的关系.     

理解新媒介--网络时代重读麦克卢汉

20世纪60年代,麦克卢汉提出了他具有前瞻性的媒介观,强调媒介本身对人类社会的重要意义.今天,当互联网这一新媒介日益渗透于人类生活时,我们发现,新媒介的特点及带给人类的影响正好证实了麦克卢汉媒介观的预见性和合理性;同时,麦克卢汉的媒介思想也在新时代重新焕发出光彩,指导着我们更清晰地理解和认识互联网这一新媒介.     

A new family of lifetime models

We introduce a new family of distributions by adding a parameter to the Marshall–Olkin family of distributions. Some properties of the new family of distributions are derived. A particular case of the family, a three-parameter generalization of the exponential distribution, is given special attention. The shape properties, moments, distributions of the order statistics, entropies and estimation procedures are derived. An application to a real data set is discussed.     

Duality of the Multivariate Distributions of Marshall–Olkin Type and Tail Dependence

A dual class of the multivariate distributions of Marshall–Olkin type is introduced, and their copulas are presented and utilized to derive explicit expressions of the distributional tail dependencies, which describe the amount of dependence in the upper-orthant tail or lower-orthant tail of a multivariate distribution and can be used in the study of dependence among extreme values. A sufficient condition under which tail dependencies of two such distributions can be compared are obtained. Some examples are also presented to illustrate our results.     

The Weibull Marshall–Olkin family: Regression model and application to censored data

We introduce a new class of distributions called the Weibull Marshall–Olkin-G family. We obtain some of its mathematical properties. The special models of this family provide bathtub-shaped, decreasing-increasing, increasing-decreasing-increasing, decreasing-increasing-decreasing, monotone, unimodal and bimodal hazard functions. The maximum likelihood method is adopted for estimating the model parameters. We assess the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators by means of two simulation studies. We also propose a new family of linear regression models for censored and uncensored data. The flexibility and importance of the proposed models are illustrated by means of three real data sets.     

论消费者剩余的产生对资源配置的影响

消费者剩余是马歇尔在面对欲望及其满足问题时为了更好地处理价格与效用之间的关系而提出来的一个概念。以此概念作为理论切入点,通过对消费者剩余产生原因的探讨以及相关理论分析,进而讨论消费者剩余的产生对资源配置的影响,提出市场配置资源方式下的资源损耗由两部分所组成:市场价格机制内的和游离于市场价格机制之外的或者说被货币所衡量出来的和没有被货币所衡量出来的。当市场价格机制中存在着游离于价格机制之外的效用损耗时,完全竞争的资源配置方式及其理论充当了资源加速消耗的发动机和加速器。     

Applications of Marshall–Olkin Fréchet Distribution

In this article, we consider the applications of Marshall–Olkin Fréchet distribution. The reliability of a system when both stress and strength follows the new distribution is discussed and related characteristics are computed for simulated data. The model is applied to a real data set on failure times of air-conditioning systems in jet planes and reliability is estimated. We also develop acceptance sampling plan for the acceptance of a lot whose lifetime follows this distribution. Four different autoregressive time series models of order 1 are developed with minification structure as well as max-min structure having these stationary marginal distributions. Some properties of the models are also established.     

论麦克卢汉的技术哲学思想

传统技术观认为,技术只是一种运载物质或信息的工具,它并不能决定或改变它所运载的东西。麦克卢汉认为,这种技术观遮蔽了技术的本质特征。他提出了“媒介即信息”的思想,认为技术对社会产生的影响和对人的存在方式的改变远远大于技术所负载、传递给人们的具体信息内容;认为媒介即人的延伸,任何发明或技术都是人类躯体的延伸或自我截除;并最早提出了“地球村”的概念,即电子技术将被拼音字母和印刷术所分割的世界“重新部落化”,使世界成为了一个“地球村”。麦克卢汉从全新的角度揭示了人与技术的真实关系,拓展了技术研究的新空间。     

麦克卢汉媒介技术思想探析

随着信息传播技术的发展，世界日益成为了一个“地球村”。麦克卢汉的预言在互联网崛起的今天，终于变成了现实。他奇特的媒介理论如：“冷、热媒介”、“媒介即是讯息”、“媒介是人体的延伸”等都给人以震撼。但也因此使他成为学术界最具有争议的人物。     

马歇尔计划时期美国对西欧的文化宣传

马歇尔计划实施期间,其主管机构经济合作署曾通过主办资助发行杂志书籍、制作电影、举办展览等交织并行的方式,试图将美国的生产技术和价值观念孕育于各种文化产品中,并以此为载体传送到西欧国家。这些宣传活动使西欧人民对马歇尔计划有了更多的了解,在某种程度上改变了欧洲国家一些人对美国文化的传统偏见,是以美国化的方式在西欧国家进行的文化扩张。