“健康丝绸之路”构建的“政府—社会”复合路径

借鉴社会运动理论,可探索一种融合了政府自上而下和社会自下而上进程的“政府—社会”复合路径,以构建“健康丝绸之路”。社会运动理论的三种视角可为这种复合路径的具体实施与需要关注的环节带来重要启发：首先,当前新冠肺炎疫情的跨国传播暴露了全球公共卫生治理体系存在的严重不足,凸显出构建补充型国际卫生合作模式的必要性与紧迫性;其次,推进“健康丝绸之路”的构建,需要政府和社会层面的协作,将“一带一路”沿线国家的资源充分调动起来,形成优势互补与资源共享。与此同时,要推进健康话语体系的完善,如倡导和促进“人类卫生健康共同体”理念的传播,通过话语和心理共鸣等民心相通的途径,促使国际社会采取联合行动以共同应对全球公共卫生危机。     

De minimis and equity in risk

Indices and orderings are developed for evaluating alternative strategies in the management of risk. They reflect the goals of reducing individual and collective risks, of increasing equity, and of assigning priority to the reduction and to the equity of high risks. Individual risk is defined as the (random or non-random) level of exposure to a danger. In particular the role of a lower negligibility level is investigated. A class of indices is proposed which involves two parameters, a negligibility level and a parameter of inequality aversion, and several interpretations of the indices are discussed. We provide a set of eight axioms which are necessary and sufficient for this class of indices, and we present an approach to deal with partial information on the parameters.     

“鲁迅形象”建构的文化语境、过程与反思

"鲁迅形象"是中国现代文化史上典型的现代知识分子的形象符码,其生成过程与现代中国的动态语境密切相关,深刻地勾联了阐释者的文化心理和思维形态。"鲁迅形象"是由自塑和他塑合力而构成的公共形象,对其进行文化学意义上的考察可为探索现代中国发展的社会史和现代知识分子的心灵史提供理论资源。     

正确把握新时代坚持和加强党的全面领导的逻辑理路——中国化马克思主义发展思想研究

党的十九大明确作出“坚持和加强党的全面领导”的重大政治论断,并把它作为新时代“党的建设”总要求的首要观点、坚持和发展中国特色社会主义“基本方略”的第一条提出来,这是中国共产党人进行党建工作的基本指导和根本遵循。新时代,正确把握坚持和加强党的全面领导的逻辑理路至关重要,因为这是我们党与生俱来和新时代历史使命的必然要求,是我们党带领人民战胜敌人的强大法宝和克服一切困难风险的定海神针;是执政党持之以恒正风肃纪和紧锣密鼓反腐惩恶的内在需要和客观要求。     

当前大学生对国学教育的认知和需求——以某高校调查数据为例

对大学生国学认知程度和需求的调查是有效开展国学教育的基础。这个基础必须通过详实的数据调查和实证分析来奠定。通过在某高校展开问卷调查,我们发现大学生对于国学的不甚了解是一个普遍现象。高校学生对国学教育的需求不仅存在,而且是理性而合理的。真正影响高校国学教育效果的症结仍然是师资力量、课程内容、教学步骤等问题。我们建议应该遵循由易到难、从日常习用到弘文奥义、分类教学的原则,系统地做好国学教育内容的顶层设计。     

湖湘大地才是炎帝文化的母体——兼与中华炎黄文化研究会商讨“炎帝故里”问题

湖南是原始拜火教的发源地和稻作农业的诞生地,也是炎帝族中心聚落的所在地,湖南才是炎帝文化的母体。中华炎黄研究会认为山西高平是炎帝故里的说法缺乏关键证据支持,因而难以成立。     

传统幼儿游戏在农村幼儿数学教育活动中的应用与价值

游戏是幼儿的天性,是幼儿成长发展的需要。幼儿园教育要以游戏为基本活动,寓教育于幼儿的生活、游戏活动中。农村有得天独厚的自然条件,有丰厚的传统幼儿游戏资源,将这些传统游戏应用于幼儿数学教育活动,达成幼儿数学认知目标,是将幼儿数学教育寓幼儿游戏活动路径的有益探索,在农村幼儿园现有条件下有重要的实践意义和理论价值。     

基于发展新理念的粮食类家庭农场成长绩效测评研究

基于发展新理念对粮食类家庭农场成长绩效的评价指标进行理论遴选后,借助专家评审和鉴别力分析进行指标筛选,构建了具有较高信度和效度的评价指标体系。以华北平原五省的453户粮食类家庭农场为样本,采用AHP-模糊综合评价模型,对指标体系做了应用研究。结果表明：粮食类家庭农场成长绩效虽在总体上处于中等偏上水平,但个体间存在一定的成长绩效差异;经济绩效整体表现良好,创新绩效却较低。因此,应引导粮食类家庭农场平衡性成长、制定精准扶持方略和建立成长绩效监测体系。     

休谟与启蒙运动——基于《人性论》引言的思想史考察

当前对休谟的研究常把他和启蒙运动相隔裂.通过对休谟代表性著作《人性论》引言的分析,可以发现他和法国启蒙思想家共享认识世界的“力学模式”和实验方法,都试图将当时在英格兰兴起的“自然哲学”应用于人类境况,都致力于用对人类生活有用的经验研究所产生的新理论代替传统形而上学.同时,休谟对经验主义方法自身的局限有着更为健全的认识,主张在经验和可观察现象范围内的实验方法.这一认识在我们反思启蒙时极富价值.     

A likelihood ratio test to discriminate exponential–Poisson and gamma distributions

The exponential–Poisson (EP) distribution with scale and shape parameters β>0 and λ∈?, respectively, is a lifetime distribution obtained by mixing exponential and zero-truncated Poisson models. The EP distribution has been a good alternative to the gamma distribution for modelling lifetime, reliability and time intervals of successive natural disasters. Both EP and gamma distributions have some similarities and properties in common, for example, their densities may be strictly decreasing or unimodal, and their hazard rate functions may be decreasing, increasing or constant depending on their shape parameters. On the other hand, the EP distribution has several interesting applications based on stochastic representations involving maximum and minimum of iid exponential variables (with random sample size) which make it of distinguishable scientific importance from the gamma distribution. Given the similarities and different scientific relevance between these models, one question of interest is how to discriminate them. With this in mind, we propose a likelihood ratio test based on Cox's statistic to discriminate the EP and gamma distributions. The asymptotic distribution of the normalized logarithm of the ratio of the maximized likelihoods under two null hypotheses – data come from EP or gamma distributions – is provided. With this, we obtain the probabilities of correct selection. Hence, we propose to choose the model that maximizes the probability of correct selection (PCS). We also determinate the minimum sample size required to discriminate the EP and gamma distributions when the PCS and a given tolerance level based on some distance are before stated. A simulation study to evaluate the accuracy of the asymptotic probabilities of correct selection is also presented. The paper is motivated by two applications to real data sets.