双向FDI与经济增长的实证研究

从双向FDI的角度分析OFDI和IFDI与经济增长的关系。选取双向FDI对经济增长的3个主要影响因素,分别对双向FDI与GDP、投资、净出口和产业结构的关系进行实证分析。研究发现:双向FDI对于GDP和投资都具有拉动作用;IFDI对投资的影响滞后4期才能产生,对净出口的增长起到正向促进作用;OFDI的扩大不利于净出口的增长;双向FDI与三次产业都存在较强的灰色关联度。据此,提出改善对内对外投资环境、发挥双向FDI对固定资产投资和净出口的促进作用、强化双向FDI对产业结构的调整作用等建议。     

Assisting the High Administrative Court in Restricting Too Broad a Concept of Academic Judgment

I have received substantial monetary compensation and a formal apology from my first doctoral school, and a Ph.D. from another university. This essay describes my personal view on discussing the boundaries of academic judgment and research supervision with the ombudsman agency for higher education, and at the High Administrative Court of England and Wales. The Court’s judicial doctrine addresses substantial research accountability matters. It clarifies that although the Court and ombudsman agency must not interfere with academic judgment, not everything done by an academic can be considered as academic judgment. A Ph.D. supervisor can seriously fail to perform his/her duties.     

Correlated random effects regression analysis for a log-normally distributed variable

In regression analysis, it is assumed that the response (or dependent variable) distribution is Normal, and errors are homoscedastic and uncorrelated. However, in practice, these assumptions are rarely satisfied by a real data set. To stabilize the heteroscedastic response variance, generally, log-transformation is suggested. Consequently, the response variable distribution approaches nearer to the Normal distribution. As a result, the model fit of the data is improved. Practically, a proper (seems to be suitable) transformation may not always stabilize the variance, and the response distribution may not reduce to Normal distribution. The present article assumes that the response distribution is log-normal with compound autocorrelated errors. Under these situations, estimation and testing of hypotheses regarding regression parameters have been derived. From a set of reduced data, we have derived the best linear unbiased estimators of all the regression coefficients, except the intercept which is often unimportant in practice. Unknown correlation parameters have been estimated. In this connection, we have derived a test rule for testing any set of linear hypotheses of the unknown regression coefficients. In addition, we have developed the confidence ellipsoids of a set of estimable functions of regression coefficients. For the fitted regression equation, an index of fit has been proposed. A simulated study illustrates the results derived in this report.     

基于消费者效用的生鲜农产品供应链生鲜度激励机制研究

生鲜供应链整体生鲜度的提升对减少浪费、提高供应链整体盈利水平及社会福利有重要意义。本文基于消费者效用理论研究了两供应商和单一零售商组成的供应链系统，构建了单周期下生鲜农产品生鲜度激励模型，模型以供应商为领导者，采用Stackelberg博弈方法求解得到了均衡状态下供应商、零售商的最优定价策略及供应商新鲜度努力选择。研究结果表明，供应商和零售商利润与消费者价格敏感系数呈反向变化，与新鲜度敏感系数呈同向变化。在价格竞争市场，供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与价格替代率呈反向变化；在生鲜度竞争市场，供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与新鲜度替代率呈同向变化。基于研究结论，厂商及政府应当联手引导消费者的消费观念，尽可能减少由于信息不对称引致的道德风险，在市场价格替代率不变甚至降低的情形下，提高生鲜度替代率，使得消费者的意愿支付价格上升，提高自身讨价还价能力，获取更多利润。     

Curved versus straight scissors to avoid 3rd and 4th degree perineal tears: A randomised feasibility study

BackgroundSevere perineal tears sustained during childbirth cause significant distress and morbidity amongst women. The objective of this study was to compare the use of straight scissors for cutting an episiotomy with the use of curved scissors, which are designed to curve away from the anal sphincter.MethodsWe used a single-centre, randomised feasibility trial. The intervention was the use of curved scissors. Women were recruited during a prenatal visit and randomised in the delivery suite, when it became clear that an episiotomy was required. The feasibility outcomes were the proportion of women able to be recruited, randomised and followed up. We also calculated the incidence of obstetric anal sphincter injury when either straight or curved scissors were used to cut an episiotomy. Other outcomes assessed were pain, length of hospital stay, perineal infection and perineal dehiscence.ResultsOf the 155 patients recruited in the prenatal period, only 20 (12.9%) were eventually randomised at birth. The main reasons for the high loss were that women either did not have a vaginal delivery (38, 24.5%), or they did not need an episiotomy (72, 46.5%). Rates of obstetric anal sphincter injury and other outcomes were similar between groups.DiscussionAnal sphincter injury during childbirth remains an important problem. Although the use of curved scissors provides a theoretical solution, we found that the high attrition rate made feasibility of conducting a suitably powered, randomised trial using the current design untenable. Alternative strategies have been suggested to make any future study more viable.     

Rolling horizon master production schedule performance: A policy analysis

In this paper, a simulation experiment has been developed to examine the combined influence of the design, inventory and environmental factors on the cost performance of a rolling horizon master production schedule. Specifically, a 2 5 factorial design was used to examine the effects associated with three rolling schedule design policies, one inventory policy and one environmental condition of forecast error on MPS cost performance. The study was based on actual data from a paint company. Results suggest that the choice of appropriate lot-size and inventory policies have a significant influence on MPS costs and that there are indeed important interactions between these policies and other design factors of a rolling schedule.     

“零度写作”在中国的接受过程

“零度写作”在20世纪80年代末成为文学理论研究与文学作品评论类文章中频繁亮相的术语，研究界用“零度写作”评价新写实主义、先锋派等后现代写作。一方面借用“零度写作”对主体的解构，以“零度情感”评价新写实小说，另一方面将“零度写作”理解为摆脱意识形态、摆脱历史记忆的纯粹文学样式，从而将不再承载某种主流意识形态，标榜无意义或消解中心的后现代写作称为“零度写作”。但不同的学者站在捍卫或批判后现代写作的立场，令“零度写作”在中国遭遇了冰火两重天的局面。     

明清回族进士考略(十)

本文考证了明清时期甘肃所属州县15位进士的生平、事迹及其家世,重点提供了他们为回族的根据,以为进一步深入研究的线索。     

非均匀分布下区间数排序可能度计算模型及其应用

区间数排序的可能度计算模型是学术界一直在不断探索的基础性问题之一。区间数刻画着事物属性特征的取值范围,以往学术界都假设在区间内的取值服从均匀分布。本文将均匀分布推广到一般分布,运用概率论的方法,构建了一个新的区间数排序的可能度计算模型,由此修正了以往关于两个区间数全等的定义,提出了区间数形等的概念,同时进一步修正了可能度的自反性条件和区间数的综合排序方法,并将理论应用于多属性决策问题,给出了基本的决策过程,通过实例决策问题的计算,呈现了新理论和新方法的可行性和合理性,具有很好的推广应用价值。     

信息化在“四化”发展中的贡献度研究——基于中国省际面板数据

构建“四化”发展水平指标体系,基于2006-2013年中国省际面板数据,运用全局主成分分析法得出“四化”发展水平得分,在此基础上,对“四化”耦合发展互动关系进行计量分析.结果显示:“四化”之间存在长期均衡的协整关系;信息化对于农业现代化边际贡献度为0.231 8,弱于工业化的边际贡献;信息化对于城镇化的边际贡献度为0.702 3,强于工业化对城镇化的贡献;信息化对于工业化的边际贡献不显著.基于实证分析结果,提出加强城镇信息化建设和提升城镇化人口素质的政策建议.