Sadder but wiser: The effects of emotional states on ambiguity attitudes

Many important decisions are made without precise information about the probabilities of the outcomes. In such situations, individual ambiguity attitudes influence decision making. The present study identifies emotions as a transient cause of ambiguity attitudes. We conducted two random-assignment, incentive-compatible laboratory experiments, varying subjects’ emotional states. We find that sadness induces choices that are closer to ambiguity-neutral attitudes compared with the joy, fear, and control groups, where decision makers deviate more from payoff-maximizing behavior.     

个案工作实验课的组织方法探索

个案工作是社会工作的方法之一,实验是个案工作课程教学的重要组成部分,组织开展好个案工作实验,有助于提高教学效果,有助于提升学生的学习兴趣,有助于检验理论并发展理论,同时更有助于培养学生的实践操作能力。在个案实验组织中,要精心组织,注重系统性、完整性、紧密型、选择性和开放性,并要特别注意社会工作价值观的运用。     

Certainty and overconfidence in future preferences for food

We examine consumer certainty of future preferences and overconfidence in predicting future preferences. We explore how preference certainty and overconfidence impact the option value to revise today’s decisions in the future. We design a laboratory experiment that creates a controlled choice environment, in which a subject’s choice set (over food snacks) is known and constant over time, and the time frame is short – subjects make choices for themselves today, and for one to two weeks ahead. Our results suggest that even for such a seemingly straightforward choice task, only 45% of subjects can predict future choices accurately, while stated certainty of future preferences (one and two weeks ahead) is around 80%. We define overconfidence in predicting future preferences as: the difference between actual accuracy at predicting future choices and stated certainty of future preferences. Our results suggest strong evidence of overconfidence. We find that overconfidence increases with the level of stated certainty of future preferences. Finally, we observe that the option value people attach to future choice flexibility decreases with overconfidence. Overconfidence in future preferences affects economic welfare because it says people have too much incentive to lock themselves into future suboptimal decisions.     

个案工作实验课的组织方法探索

个案工作是社会工作的方法之一,实验是个案工作课程教学的重要组成部分,组织开展好个案工作实验,有助于提高教学效果,有助于提升学生的学习兴趣,有助于检验理论并发展理论,同时更有助于培养学生的实践操作能力。在个案实验组织中,要精心组织,注重系统性、完整性、紧密型、选择性和开放性,并要特别注意社会工作价值观的运用。     

Co-evolution of conventions and networks: An experimental study

We study the emergence of conventions in dynamic networks experimentally. Conventions are modeled in terms of coordination games in which actors can choose both their behavior and their interaction partners. We study how macro-level outcomes of the process in terms of Pareto-efficiency and heterogeneity depend on initial conditions. Moreover, we examine the underlying processes at the microlevel. Predictions are derived from a game-theoretic model which is applied to our experimental conditions by means of computer simulation. The results provide mixed support for the macro-level hypotheses, and indicate possible directions to improve the model at the micro level.     

Crossover designs in the presence of carry-over effects from two factors

Experiments, used in the telecommunications industry and elsewhere, are considered that involve the simultaneous application of levels of two unrelated factors, treatments and stimuli, to each of several subjects in a succession of time periods. The existence is suspected of carry-over effects of treatments and stimuli, in the period immediately following the period of their application. Methods are given for the construction of separate sequences of treatments and of stimuli; these methods are based on the Latin squares of Williams and of Russell. In the resulting designs, the treatments and stimuli are either orthogonal or nearly orthogonal, and the coincidence of the direct and carry-over effects of each factor is either balanced or nearly balanced. The efficiencies of the designs are assessed by comparing the average variances of elementary contrasts in the levels of each factor with appropriate lower bounds.     

董事会构成的模糊综合评判方法

董事会既充当股东大会的代理人,又担当经理层的委托人,在公司治理结构中具有十分重要的地位,已经成为公司治理结构的核心。企业董事会的构成直接决定着董事会职能的有效发挥,因此选择合理的董事会构成模式,不仅能够有效地维护股东的利益,而且对企业的长远发展具有重要的战略意义。本文在对董事会构成模式及其影响因素分析的基础上,运用模糊数学理论和层次分析法,提出了选择董事会构成模式和确定董事会构成大体比例的模糊综合评判方法,为企业合理组织董事会捉供理论指导。     

Gender differences in honesty: The role of social value orientation

This paper experimentally analyzes the role of individual social value orientation (SVO) on honest behavior. We focus on a situation where dishonest behavior pays off at somebody else’s cost. In which case, distributional preferences might matter for the willingness to act honestly. To examine this link we conduct a laboratory experiment where we first elicit SVO to measure distributional preferences. Afterwards, we implement a die rolling game to elicit dishonest behavior at an individual level. We detect a positive correlation between subjects’ SVO angle and honest behavior. Furthermore, the data confirm common gender differences, i.e., women are significantly more honest than men. Additionally, we find that, on average, women have higher SVO angles than men. A mediation analysis reveals that SVO explains the gender effect.     

高等数学多媒体教学探索

利用多媒体现代技术教学是高等教育的发展方向。实践证明,高等数学同其他学科一样,也可以打破传统观念采用多媒体方式进行教学,并且由于高等数学的特殊性还具有一定优势。高等数学多媒体课件的制作对教师提出了一定要求。     

A small world on feet of clay? A comparison of empirical small-world studies against best-practice criteria

Small-world studies were introduced by Milgram and others in the 1960s and 1970s. These studies, and a majority of variants conducted by others, display a number of methodological weaknesses that bias their results. While no explicit methodological standard exists for these studies, here I derive a number of best-practice criteria for small-world studies by pointing out mistakes of previous studies, and by applying methodological standards from other empirical research areas. Improving the methodology of letter referral studies is important, because such studies could still be useful in a number of contexts today, especially for the exploration of factors affecting targeted search processes.