我国分季度GDP估算方法的研究

 近年来随着各国经济的不断融合和金融市场的日趋国际化,宏观经济的短期波动越来越受到各国的重视,季度GDP作为高质量的子年度统计数据可以说具有独特的研究价值,为此各国都在探讨季度GDP的核算方法,以获取更加及时、准确的统计数据。我国近两年经济波动较大,寻找及时、准确的高频数据进行短期经济分析具有重大意义。为此,本文借鉴国际上的Chou-Lin方法对我国季度GDP进行分产业的估算,并将估算结果与官方数据进行比较,发现估算结果与官方数据偏差极小,可以作为高频数据进行经济分析及预测。     

Implementing Rigorous Survey Methodology within Contexts of Social Work Education,Training and Practice: A Case Study in Substance Use

With the integration of evidence-based practice central to all areas of social work education and training across the globe, it is crucial that we continue to engage with the methodological challenges inherent in gathering this evidence, particularly when it is related to the nature of social work education itself. As a result, this paper addresses some of the methodological challenges involved in examining the education available to social workers on engaging with substance use, both within the social work academy and local authorities in England. Drawing on experiences of implementing large scale online surveys from three substantial research projects completed by the authors, this paper highlights four methodological themes: (1) Constructing a representative sampling frame; (2) Identifying participants within organisations with many departments; (3) Response rates; and (4) Questionnaire design. While these are familiar methodological considerations, this article draws attention to the specific complexities of gathering ‘representative’ knowledge to inform educational strategies on substance use within social work education and employment contexts. Finally this paper offers lessons learned and guidance for social work academics, students and practitioners who are minded to build, or draw from, an evidence-base using representative samples from and within these environments.     

《孙子兵法》管理思想初探

从管理学角度深入探究了《孙子兵法》的思想精髓 ,分析阐述《孙子兵法》的管理思想、管理方法和人才标准 ,对于丰富现代管理理论 ,管理工作实践具有一定的借鉴和启迪作用     

国家创新体系视角下的国家创新能力测度述评——理论方法、数据基础及中国实践

文章从国家创新体系角度,对创新能力测度相关的理论基础、方法工具、科技统计调查及中国的研究与实践进行全面梳理和分析。国家创新能力测度的发展与实践表明:国家创新体系理论(NIS理论)以系统论为指导全面考察创新活动的发生机制,为准确测度国家创新能力提供了有力支撑;不同时期形成的创新能力测度方法与当时占主流地位的创新理论密切相关;当前占主导地位的测度方法可分为建模计量法、综合指标法和DEA效率评价法三类,都是以NIS理论为支撑的;规范的科技统计调查是准确测度创新能力的前提,OECD是这方面的典范,其经验为发展中国家提供了参考依据;中国学者在测度方法的探索上有诸多独到之处,但国内科技统计调查工作仍有待进一步规范。     

中国行政管理学研究状况的文献计量学分析

采用文献计量学方法从研究主题、研究方式、研究阶段三个角度对2001-2005年刊登在中国行政管理学4个重要刊物上的研究论文的内部结构所进行的分析发现,在行政管理学的研究主题上,行政职能、决策、改革、哲学、法治、人事、基层政权为主流研究领域;行政职能、行政决策、行政改革、国外行政研究和行政哲学等为一级主题的研究热点;公共服务、绩效评估、政府信用、服务型政府和非政府组织等为二级主题的研究热点.在研究方式上,中国行政管理学研究存在着经验研究与非经验研究、定性分析与定量分析的比例失调问题,但经验研究与定量分析方法正在得到越来越多的应用.在研究阶段上,所调查的研究论文多处于问题描述、问题诊断和对策分析阶段.     

Ambiguous Criteria Weights in AHP: Consequences and Solutions*

Two related streams of criticism of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) have not yet been satisfactorily resolved, although both date from the early 1980s. The first relates to ambiguity in the meaning of the relative importance of one criterion as compared to another. The second is concerned with reversals of rank alleged to be possible when new options are introduced in an AHP problem. Both proponents and critics of AHP agree that rank reversals occur, but disagree on the legitimacy of such reversals. This paper shows that there is a necessary correspondence between the manner in which criteria importances are interpreted and computed and the manner in which the weights of the options under each criterion are normalized. In general, if this relationship is ignored, incorrect weights are generated for options under consideration regardless of whether new options are added or deleted. A rank reversal on the addition of an option is merely symptomatic of this fact, and such reversals do not occur when the correspondence condition is met.     

Some Cautions on the Measurement of User Information Satisfaction*

User information satisfaction (UIS) is important because of its potential effects on MIS department goals, quality of user work life, and extent of voluntary usage of systems. Reliable measurement of UIS is important for providing evaluative information for both researchers and practitioners. This study used 92 managers and executives as subjects to compare the test/retest reliability of a widely used, 13-scale UIS instrument together with four summary questions under experimental and control conditions. The summary questions behaved more reliably than the detailed questions for all groups, perhaps because of problems with scale units and origins and with item heterogeneity. This suggests that researchers need more reliable measures of UIS and that practitioners need to exercise caution when collecting and interpreting UIS scores.     

Integrating Analysis and Communication Skills into the Decision Science Curriculum*

The teaching of decision sciences presupposes that careful attention is directed toward improving students' critical thinking and analytical skills. This paper presents an approach to teaching quantitative methods classes that focuses on developing student skills in the areas of analytical and critical thinking through written and oral communication. The approach requires very little additional instructor preparation time and does not require the instructor to make major changes in either the content or organization of the course. While the instructor's investment is minimal, the benefits to the students appear to be substantial.     

关于计划生育干部培训形式的几点思考

目前我国人口与计划生育工作已进入稳定低生育水平、综合治理人口问题的新阶段 ,要求全面提高计划生育干部素质 ,教育培训工作越来越显示出其重要性。本文探讨了原有培训形式存在的问题和今后计划生育干部培训形式的多元化发展     

用创新精神探索学生思想工作的新路

随着我国高等教育在办学体制、管理体制、招生就业体制、经费筹措体制、学校内部管理体制等方面改革的不断深入和发展 ,给高校学生思想政治工作带来了大量的新情况、新问题。本文旨在探讨 ,在此新形势下加强和改进高校学生思想政治工作的新方法和途径