民族心理研究中文化偏差的克服:向文化人类学借鉴

民族心理研究机械照搬经典科学心理学范式,容易导致文化偏差。文化人类学研究获得的心理知识表明,人类各民族的心理有相似性和差异性,心理与文化有密切关联,西方范式心理学知识难以充分解释非西方文化中的心理现象。民族心理研究中,应借鉴人类学理念和方法,以克服文化偏差。     

An Alternative FMEA Method for Simple and Accurate Ranking of Failure Modes

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a methodology for prioritizing actions to mitigate the effects of failures in products and processes. Although originally used by product designers, FMEA is currently more widely used in industry in Six Sigma quality improvement efforts. Two prominent criticisms of the traditional application of FMEA are that the risk priority number (RPN) used to rank failure modes is an invalid measure according to measurement theory, and that the RPN does not weight the three decision criteria used in FMEA. Various methods have been proposed to mitigate these concerns, including many using fuzzy logic. We develop a new ranking method in this article using a data‐elicitation technique. Furthermore, we develop an efficient means of eliciting data to reduce the effort associated with the new method. Subsequently, we conduct an experimental study to evaluate that proposed method against the traditional method using RPN and against an approach using fuzzy logic.     

A Multicriteria Outranking Modeling Approach for Credit Rating

Rating models are widely used by credit institutions to obtain estimates for the probabilities of default for their clients (firms, organizations, individuals) and to assess the risk of credit portfolios. Several statistical and data mining methods are used to develop such models. In this article, the potential of an outranking multicriteria decision‐aiding approach is explored. An evolutionary algorithm is used to fit a credit rating model on the basis of the ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalité trichotomique method. The methodology is applied to a large sample of Greek firms. The results indicate that outranking models are well suited to credit rating, providing good classification results and useful insight on the relative importance of the evaluation criteria.     

音乐作品“解读”论

音乐作品表现形式的多样化和内在涵义的多元性导致音乐作品的解读方法必然是多样的，许多分析解读不仅是多样化方法的综合运用，而且有各种方法的互渗、互补的特点。由于时代的不同，对同一音乐作品解读的具体方法又是与时俱进的。只有对音乐作品进行深入且具有历史含义的解读，才能发掘出作品真正的历史意义与内在价值。而解读结果所包含的解读者丰富的个体特征、审美判断、审美意向以及时代特征等同样值得作为一种解读后的解读。     

党政领导干部思想道德素质测评内容与方法

“德才兼备”是我们党选拔领导干部的一贯原则,进入新时期,选拔干部更加注重了对“德”的要求。但是,如何对思想道德素质进行测评一直是理论研究和实践应用的瓶颈问题。本文在对以往研究总结的基础上,探讨了党政领导干部思想道德素质测评的必要性、测评的基本内容和测评方法。最后,文章提出了党政领导干部思想道德素质测评进一步发展需要注意的几个问题。     

The Efficacy of Neural Networks in Predicting Returns on Stock and Bond Indices*

This paper uses two recently developed tests to identify neglected nonlinearity in the relationship between excess returns on four asset classes and several economic and financial variables. Having found some evidence of possible nonlinearity, it was then investigated whether the predictive power of these variables could be enhanced by using neural network models instead of linear regression or GARCH models. Some evidence of nonlinearity in the relationships between the explanatory variables and large stocks and corporate bonds was found. It was also found that the GARCH models are conditionally efficient with respect to neural network models, but the neural network models outperform GARCH models if financial performance measures are used. In resonance with the results reported for the tests for neglected nonlinearity, it was found that the neural network forecasts are conditionally efficient with respect to linear regression models for large stocks and corporate bonds, whereas the evidence is not statistically significant for small stocks and intermediate-term government bonds. This difference persists even when financial performance measures for individual asset classes are used for comparison.     

基于双重抽样框的抽样估计方法研究

 随着经济社会的快速发展,抽样调查中调查对象的流动日益频繁,传统的单一抽样框很难完整覆盖流动性的目标总体,如果一定要使单一抽样框实现完整覆盖,成本必定是高昂的,甚至由于编制过程漫长使抽样调查失去其时效性。有时采用两个不完整抽样框的组合可以实现对目标总体的完整覆盖。基于双重抽样框进行抽样调查,其抽样设计工作不难,但是由于样本在两个抽样框中存在交叉,致使抽样估计甚是困难。基于此,本文将系统评述目前国外已有的各种双重抽样框估计方法,将这些方法分为分离抽样框估计和组合抽样框估计两类,并按照统一的模式比较各估计方法的功效,文章最后对我国采用双重抽样框调查进行展望。     

Important Strategic and Tactical Manufacturing Issues in the 1990s*

This paper reports the identification and ranking of major manufacturing issues that American manufacturing managers and academics must focus on and resolve in the 1990s to be competitive on a global basis. Vice-presidents of manufacturing from over 75 companies across the United States were asked in a Delphi study to rank the key strategic and tactical issues facing American manufacturing in the next three to five years. Based on three rounds of a Delphi study, quality management, manufacturing strategy, and process technology emerged as the top ranked strategic issues. The top ranked tactical issues were quality control, manufacturing planning and control systems, and work force supervision. These issues were valid across diverse industry groups, since the industrial and educational background of the respondents was shown to have no impact on the final consensus rankings and opinions reported in this paper. Factor analysis of the responses by the panel revealed that certain issues tend to be consistently viewed together, and were interpreted accordingly to provide insights into the ranking of issues. Apart from building a consensus among experts on key manufacturing issues of present and future importance, this study can also be helpful for setting future academic research and pedagogical priorities for the field of production and operations management.     

Happy by What Standard? The Role of Interpersonal and Intrapersonal Comparisons in Ratings of Happiness

The present research suggests that many of the most commonly-used indicators of happiness are constructed in a manner that renders them susceptible to null or misleading findings. While few happiness indicators specify particular comparison standards, we demonstrate that people tend to evaluate their happiness relative to comparison standards and give reliably different happiness ratings based on the comparison standards they spontaneously adopt. In Study 1, participants reported that intrapersonal comparisons were a more important consideration than interpersonal comparisons in determining their happiness ratings. In Study 2, participants using a free-response format more frequently reported making intrapersonal comparisons than interpersonal comparisons when rating happiness. In both Studies 1 and 2, participants who reported using interpersonal comparisons gave higher happiness ratings than those who reported using intrapersonal comparisons. In Study 3, participants who were prompted to make interpersonal comparisons gave higher happiness ratings than those prompted to make intrapersonal comparisons. We discuss the implications of these findings for measuring subjective well-being and interpreting happiness research.

美国2010年人口普查方法介绍

 本文根据美国人口普查局网站资料,介绍了美国2010年人口普查的调查目的、内容、具体组织实施方法等,其科学的调查设计方法、规范的操作流程、先进的数据收集和处理方法及丰富的公开信息资源,为我国2010年人口普查提供了参考,有利于加快完善我国人口普查制度,实现及时准确反映全国及各地的人口变化情况。