Towards an adequate and sustainable replacement rate in defined benefit pension systems: The case of Spain

The main objective of this article is to determine, based on internal data, replacement rates for a defined benefit pension system, with two aims: the adequacy of pensions – measured in terms of the expenditure of retirees – and the sustainability of the system. For this purpose two instruments are used: the internal rate of return, and techniques based on systems of notional accounts. These figures, derived from internal data, will serve, by comparison with the replacement rate of the system, to assess whether the system tends more towards adequacy or sustainability. The system studied is that of Spain.     

Promises to keep. An evaluator's perspective on employee assistance programs.

This paper presents a critical review of the rapidly expanding literature concerning employee assistance programs (EAPs). Several essential features of EAPs are identified and the assumptions underlying these components are examined. The latter section of this report offers some tentative suggestions for correcting this situation so that the EAP movement will no longer suffer from the lack of a firm database upon which to build more coherent and defensible theories and programs.     

Jackknifing L-estimates

Linear functions of order statistics (“L-estimates”) of the form T_n =under jackknifing are investigated. This paper proves that with suitable conditions on the function J, the jackknifed version T_n of the L-estimate T_n has the same limit distribution as T_n. It is also shown that the jackknife estimate of the asymptotic variance of n^1/2 is consistent. Furthermore, the Berry-Esséen rate associated with asymptotic normality, and a law of the iterated logarithm of a class of jackknife L-estimates, are characterized.     

On the asymptotics of randomness statistics

Kiefer (1959) studied the asymptotics of q-sample Cramér-von Mises nonparametric statistics when q is fixed and the sample sizes tend to infinity. Here we prove the asymptotic normality of such statistics when the sample sizes stay fixed or small while the number of samples, q, becomes large.     

Social security,social welfare and the aging population

This study examines the effects of pay-as-you-go social security programs in aging economies when the middle-aged both educate their dependent children and subsidize the retirement of the old. Using an overlapping generations framework in which agents are three-period lived but timing of death in the third period is uncertain, we analyze the effects of social security tax schemes, under various demographic assumptions, on capital accumulation, education expenditures, social welfare, and economic growth. We find that in many cases social security crowds out education, and reduces economic growth and social welfare. Received: 29 April 1998/Accepted: 3 March 1999     

新历史主义视角下的美国“9·11”电影——以《特别响，非常近》为例

电影《特别响,非常近》以“9·11”事件为故事背景,透过平民的视角表现恐怖主义事件给普通百姓造成的心理创伤及精神焦虑。从新历史主义理论的视角看,该电影具有强烈的民间化、平民化色彩,透射出灾难后美国普通民众生活的真实性。同时该电影表现出批判性的政治意识形态,不仅控诉了“9·11”事件给美国人民带来的创伤,也谴责了所有的战争给人类带来的灾难和痛苦。     

Sensitivity analysis of longitudinal data with intermittent missing values

Several models for longitudinal data with nonrandom missingness are available. The selection model of Diggle and Kenward is one of these models. It has been mentioned by many authors that this model depends on untested modelling assumptions, such as the response distribution, from the observed data. So, a sensitivity analysis of the study’s conclusions for such assumptions is needed. The stochastic EM algorithm is proposed and developed to handle continuous longitudinal data with nonrandom intermittent missing values when the responses have non-normal distribution. This is a step in investigating the sensitivity of the parameter estimates to the change of the response distribution. The proposed technique is applied to real data from the International Breast Cancer Study Group.     

Sample Path Asymmetries in Non‐Gaussian Random Processes

We tackle an important although rarely addressed question of accounting for a variety of asymmetries frequently observed in stochastic temporal/spatial records. First, we review some measures intending to capture such asymmetries that have been introduced on various occasions in the past and then propose a family of measures that is motivated by Rice's formula for crossing level distributions of the slope. We utilize those asymmetry measures to demonstrate how a class of second‐order models built on the skewed Laplace distributions can account for sample path asymmetries. It is shown that these models are capable of mimicking not only distributional skewness but also more complex geometrical asymmetries in the sample path such as tilting, front‐back slope asymmetry and time irreversibility. Simple moment‐based estimation techniques are briefly discussed to allow direct application to modelling and fitting actual records.     

Integer‐valued Trawl Processes: A Class of Stationary Infinitely Divisible Processes

This paper introduces a new continuous‐time framework for modelling serially correlated count and integer‐valued data. The key component in our new model is the class of integer‐valued trawl processes, which are serially correlated, stationary, infinitely divisible processes. We analyse the probabilistic properties of such processes in detail and, in addition, study volatility modulation and multivariate extensions within the new modelling framework. Moreover, we describe how the parameters of a trawl process can be estimated and obtain promising estimation results in our simulation study. Finally, we apply our new modelling framework to high‐frequency financial data.     

La flexicurité en Belgique: une proposition fondée sur des principes économiques

En Belgique, l'assurance chǒmage et la législation sur la protection de l'emploi en vigueur ont été conçues dans un contexte oü les relations entre les travailleurs et les entreprises étaient durables et stables. La mondialisation de l'économie et les rapides changements technologiques et organisationnels les obligent à plus de flexibilité. Les institutions doivent ětre réformées rapidement pour accorder ce nouveau besoin avec celui de sécurité pour les travailleurs. L'appel à la «flexicurité» n'est pas nouveau, mais il n'y a pas d'unanimité sur le modèle institutionnel qu'elle implique. Les auteurs proposent une réforme qui est explicitement fondée sur des principes issus de l'analyse économique.