努力开拓团结进取为实现我院"十五"发展计划而奋斗

回顾和总结了华北工学院"九五"期间所取得的丰硕成果,分析了可持续发展的环境条件,阐述了立足实际,面向未来,制定和实现学院"十五"发展计划的宏伟目标.     

抓好学科建设促进学校发展--"九五"学科建设工作回顾与"十五"发展设想

回顾了华北工学院"九五"期间,学科建设工作并探讨、归纳出学科建设以及促进学校发展的成功经验,决心在"十五"期间继续勇于探索,不断创新,促使学院发展再上新台阶.     

A remedial strategy for data analysis

Professional evaluators are often called upon to analyze data produced by a catastrophically inadequate evaluation design. This problem is occurring more frequently as accountability pressures force program experts into evaluation activities for which they are not trained. A remedial strategy involving diagnosis of error, application of a corrective procedure and sensitization of program personnel of the need for a more sophisticated stance, is proposed as a solution. A case study is described and the contribution of a remedial strategy to improved evaluation is outlined.     

Cramér-von Mises tests of fit for the Poisson distribution

Goodness-of-fit tests based on the Cramér-von Mises statistics are given for the Poisson distribution. Power comparisons show that these statistics, particularly A², give good overall tests of fit. The statistic A² will be particularly useful for detecting distributions where the variance is close to the mean, but which are not Poisson.     

On a cramér-von mises type statistic for testing bivariate independence

A Cramér-von Mises type statistic for testing bivariate independence, proposed by Hoeffding (1948) and by Blum, Kiefer, and Rosenblatt (1961), is examined in greater detail. The statistic is decomposed into components in the manner of Durbin and Knott (1972), and the components are shown to be related to linear rank statistics. Asymptotic power properties of the Hoeffding statistic and its components in testing for independence with bivariate normal random observations are described; a Monte Carlo study comparing these statistics with other nonparametric statistics for bivariate independence is also reported.     

Infinitesimal sensitivity of posterior distributions

We measure the local sensitivity of a posterior expectation with respect to the prior by computing the norm of the Fréchet derivative of the posterior with respect to the prior over several different classes of measures. We compute the derivative of the posterior upper expectation when the prior varies in a restricted ?-contamination class. A bound on the global sensitivity of a class of priors is obtained. As an application, we show that of all sets with posterior probability 1 — α, the likelihood region minimizes the norm of the Fréchet derivative over the ?-contamination class and so is, in some sense, the most robust region with this posterior probability. But there exist counterexamples to this result for other classes of priors.     

ON THE PERFORMANCE OF KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV TESTS ON STABLE RANDOM VARIABLES1

This paper provides two procedures to perform the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) tests on stable random variables. One utilizes the integral representation of the cumulative distribution function of this random variable to perform the K-S test; the other utilizes the Gil-Pelaez-Roseń transformation of data (Csörg(1983)) to test uniformity on (0,1) for the transformed sample. Both procedures are examined and evaluated by a simulation study.     

Practical problems associated with programme evaluation in third world countries

Problems in conducting programme evaluation in third world countries can be divided into four interrelated categories: those associated with design, personnel, time, and budget. Some of the problems in each of these areas are considered and suggestions for dealing with them are presented.     

Des indicateurs «SMART» pour mesurer le travail décent: proposition dans la perspective du programme de développement pour l'après‐2015

Les indicateurs associés aux objectifs du Millénaire pour le développement présentent plusieurs lacunes: des problèmes de mesure et d'interprétation, l'utilisation de données agrégées et des hypothèses inadaptées aux pays en développement. Les auteurs proposent par conséquent quatre nouveaux indicateurs de l'emploi productif et du travail décent: l'augmentation de la part du travail dans la valeur ajoutée par těte, le taux de travailleurs pauvres et la proportion de travailleurs qui perçoivent un revenu inférieur à un minimum donné, fixé en valeur absolue d'abord puis à 60 pour cent du revenu du travail médian. Deux cas d'espèce – Ouganda et Pérou – illustrent l'application pratique de ces indicateurs.