Quod vadis? The effect of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration in the MENA region

Recent trends in international migration reveal increasing migration outflows from Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. This development is accompanied by a massive rise in youth unemployment and a major increase in the young population in this region. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of migration patterns and analyses the interacting effect of the unfavourable combination of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration decisions. Based on an assessment of bilateral migration flows from 19 MENA to 34 OECD countries between 1995 and 2020, we find that youth unemployment plays a significant role in explaining emigration flows from MENA countries. We also find that the migration-generating effect of youth unemployment is contingent upon demographic pressure in the youth cohorts and increases with an increasing number of youths.     

Devolution in a ‘Stateless Nation’: Nation‐building and Social Policy in Scotland

The implications of the 2011 Scottish election and the proposed referendum on Scottish independence for the future of social policy across the devolved UK are profound but far from certain. It is crucial to understand not only the historical nature of this conjuncture but to develop an adequate conceptual understanding of the place of social policy in the dialectic between state and nation in Scotland. To this end, we critically examine theories that depict Scotland as an essentially ‘stateless nation’ in the light of recent developments. In so doing, we examine the implications for social policy of the changing character of statehood in Scotland, the nature of civil nationalism, and the problem of legitimacy in Scotland for the UK as a multinational state. As the architecture of statehood is re‐negotiated, strong centrifugal pressures are being created for a more distinct divergence of social policy in Scotland from the rest of the UK regardless of the outcome of the independence referendum. Policy‐making is ensnared in a series of tensions, not just between Westminster and Holyrood but also, more broadly, tensions between competing principles of social justice and territorial justice, and competing demands between welfare nationalism and competitive nationalism.     

Patience moderates the class cleavage in demand for redistribution

Previous studies on class voting have yielded mixed results linking income and demand for redistribution. Why do some poor people oppose redistribution, while some rich people support it? This article argues that an individual's level of patience, an important personal characteristic that influences how people calculate immediate and distinct outcomes, may moderate the effect of class on redistributive preference. In a one-shot game, redistribution between the rich and the poor is zero sum. When people extend their time horizons, however, the poor see the possibility of upward mobility, while the rich emphasize future losses, such as unemployment and economic instability. Consistent with the hypotheses, analyses of the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and a representative Taiwanese dataset from 2016 reveal a clear class cleavage in demand for redistribution among impatient poor and rich respondents, but the cleavage between their patient counterparts diminished. This pattern of convergence extends previous studies on upward mobility and risk perception theory.     

未成年人犯罪对青少年价值观的诘问

分析认识青少年人生观、价值观扭曲的现实,是做好青少年思想道德教育工作的必要前提。运用了全国未成年犯调查资料,对未成年犯和中学生的价值观进行了比较。结果显示：不良的媒介偏好、偶像崇拜、闲暇意愿以及不正确的成功取向、交友倾向等方面的比例均是未成年犯明显高于中学生。研究认为应积极应对大众传媒不良信息对青少年的深层渗透,重视同伴教育在青少年价值观形成中的作用和道德实践。     

伊拉克战争与公众参与中国中东外交政策制定

伊拉克战争为公众参与中国中东外交政策制定提供了机会,参与群体前所未有地扩大,参与途径全面拓展,不同意见的表达开始涌现,公众主动对外交建言献策,开始有意施加民意压力。更为重要的是,公众意见开始成为外交部门对外传播国家主张的背景支撑和参考因素。公众因素开始成为中国制定中东外交决策时需要考虑的重要参数之一,但其影响力有限,更多是参考和制约作用,其影响正处于发展之中。     

中东剧变中的阿尔及利亚政局透视

2010年底以来,中东地区多国发生了政权更迭,阿尔及利亚一度爆发群众游行示威,但目前阿尔及利亚政局基本稳定,原因可归纳为以下四个方面:一是阿尔及利亚独立以来的长期动荡释放了民众的不满;二是布特弗利卡执政联盟仍具有较强的政治实力;三是国内的两个主要反对派因其各自的缺陷,难以获得大多数民众的支持;四是现政权与美国保持了较好的关系。然而,由于目前中东地区的局势尚在发展中,随着新因素的加入,阿尔及利亚的政局仍存在变数。     

从苏丹个案看中国对阿外交之成长

苏丹是中国外交参与程度较深的发展中国家,中苏双边关系的发展演变不仅始终彰显着共同发展的主旋律,也清晰地反映了中国对阿外交的成长轨迹。在民族解放运动蓬勃发展时期,中国和苏丹的相互援助加速了全球殖民体系的瓦解,整体上推动了发展中国家的社会发展进程。在此后的全球化浪潮中,中国逐步深度参与了苏丹的经济事务,帮助苏丹实现了经济腾飞和国内持久和平。以南北矛盾和达尔富尔人道主义灾难为主要内容的苏丹危机,是中国外交参与国际事务时必须直面的挑战之一。中国外交必须重新审视与西方和发展中国家关系的基本内容和应对技巧,在深度参与中逐步走向成熟,实现外交转型和国家形象重塑。     

阶层固化背景下底层青年的“中国梦”

时至今日,社会各个阶层的固化趋势渐趋严重,很大程度上成为中华民族复兴历程上最大的拦路虎,这不能不引起我们的关注和重视。而广大的新世纪底层青年正是在这一背景下踏上历史舞台,展开各自的人生传奇。当代底层青年面对着日益严峻的阶层固化态势,他们的崛起之路变得愈加坎坷和艰难。他们要破茧而出,打破阶层藩篱,实现逆袭,获得职业成功,必须把握该阶层的特点、构成,并依赖政府、社会各方面的参与和努力,更重要的是,个人的奋斗和坚持是不可或缺的。     

Impacts of the Triple Global Crisis on Growth and Poverty: The Case of Yemen

Yemen is an oil‐exporting and food‐importing country with the highest levels of poverty in the Middle East and North Africa. The impacts of the triple crisis are likely to further complicate pre‐existing conditions of conflict, oil depletion and governance failure. Using a dynamic CGE model, this article finds that oil‐driven growth in 2008 dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis, but that growth was not pro‐poor. The financial crisis of 2009 slowed growth sharply and raised the poverty rate to 42.8%, up from 34.8% in 2005/6. Poverty continues to be higher in rural areas, where almost half the population live in poverty.     

Class and ideological orientations revisited: an exploration of class‐based mechanisms

Studies of the relationship between class position and political outlooks still only have a limited understanding of the class‐related mechanisms that matter for ideological orientations. This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the mechanisms that link class position and left/right and authoritarian/libertarian orientations. Besides main factors such as income, career prospects, job security, education, class origin and class identification, the significance of work‐related factors such as work autonomy, working in a team, a physically demanding job and a mentally demanding job is studied. The findings are based on a survey specifically designed for this purpose and collected in Sweden in 2008/2009. A great deal of the association between class position and left/right orientations is explained by socio‐economic conditions; different classes sympathize with policies that will benefit them economically. Another important factor is class identification. Work‐related factors also have relevance, but the effect of class position on left/right orientations works mainly through the remuneration system. Class position is also related to authoritarian/libertarian orientations. However, this relationship is less explained by socio‐economic position per se, but is rather an effect of the educational system and its allocation of the workforce into different class positions. It also turns out that work‐related factors do not explain the class effects; however, a physically demanding job shows a unique effect. Overall, our findings suggest that besides factors such as class position, income, education and class identification, we need to consider work‐related aspects to derive a more complete understanding of the distribution of ideological orientations in Western societies.