Universal admissibility in second order asymptotics

Some sufficient conditions for an estimator to be universally second order admissible are derived. Those sufficient conditions consist of the elementary integrals with respect to the Fisher information and the limits of some functions characterized by the dealt statistical model, and thus can be checked with comparative ease. In location model and scale model, the sufficient condition for the linear estimator with respect to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) to be universally second order admissible is given. Furthermore, a guide for classifying any estimator into either the universal admissibility or the non-universal admissibility is proposed.     

The English language fluency and occupational success of ethnic minority immigrant men living in English metropolitan areas

This paper examines two crucial aspects of the assimilation experience of ethnic minority immigrants in the United Kingdom. It explores the determinants of their English language (speaking) fluency and the key role such skills play in their occupational success. Our sample is derived from the Fourth National Survey of Ethnic Minorities undertaken in 1994. Uniquely this data contains an interviewer-assessed measure of English language fluency. Importantly, we also attempt to control for possible endogeneity bias in the estimates of the effect of language fluency on occupational success. We find that fluency is associated with significantly higher mean hourly occupational wages. Received: 26 November 1999/Accepted: 03 August 2000     

A two-state regime switching autoregressive model with an application to river flow analysis

We propose a regime switching autoregressive model and apply it to analyze daily water discharge series of River Tisza in Hungary. The dynamics is governed by two regimes, along which both the autoregressive coefficients and the innovation distributions are altering, moreover, the hidden regime indicator process is allowed to be non-Markovian. After examining stationarity and basic properties of the model, we turn to its estimation by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and propose two algorithms. The values of the latent process serve as auxiliary parameters in the first one, while the change points of the regimes do the same in the second one in a reversible jump MCMC setting. After comparing the mixing performance of the two methods, the model is fitted to the water discharge data. Simulations show that it reproduces the important features of the water discharge series such as the highly skewed marginal distribution and the asymmetric shape of the hydrograph.     

Periodograms asymptotic distributions in periodically correlated processes and multivariate stationary processes: An alternative approach

Discrete time periodically correlated (PC) processes are viewed as the processes with time-dependent spectra. This, together with an auxiliary operator which is defined here is employed to apply classical results on the asymptotic distribution of the periodogram of the univariate white noise (innovations) to derive the asymptotic distributions of the periodograms for the PC processes and also for the multivariate stationary processes. We assume only the continuity and positive definiteness of the spectral densities together with the independence of the innovations.     

EVIDENCE FOR RELATIONAL CONTRACTS IN SOVEREIGN BANK LENDING

This paper presents direct evidence for relational contracts in sovereign bank lending. Unlike the existing empirical literature, its instrumental variables method allows for distinguishing a direct influence of past repayment problems on current spreads (a “punishment” effect in prices) from an indirect effect through higher expected future default probabilities (“loss of reputation”). Such a punishment provides positive surplus to lenders after a default and decreases the borrower's present discounted value of the net benefits of future borrowing, which create dynamic incentives. Using data on bank loans to developing countries for 1973–1981 and constructing continuous variables for credit history, we find evidence that most of the influence of past repayment problems is through the direct, punishment channel.     

Interaction balance for symmetrical factorial designs with generalized minimum aberration

There are two different systems of contrast parameterization when analyzing the interaction effects among the factors with more than two levels, i.e., linear-quadratic system and orthogonal components system. Based on the former system and an ANOVA model, Xu and Wu (2001) introduced the generalized wordlength pattern for general factorial designs. This paper shows that the generalized wordlength pattern exactly measures the balance pattern of interaction columns of a symmetrical design ground on the orthogonal components system, and thus an alternative angle to look at the generalized minimum aberration criterion is given. This work is partially supported by NNSF of China grant No. 10231030.     

Designing sampling plans to capture rare objects

This article focuses on two‐phase sampling designs for a population with unknown number of rare objects. The first phase is used to estimate the number of rare or potentially rare objects in a population, and the second phase to design sampling plans to capture a certain number or a certain proportion of such type of objects. A hypergeometric‐binomial model is applied to infer the number of rare or potentially rare objects and Monte Carlo simulation based approaches are developed to calculate needed sample sizes. Simulations and real data applications are discussed. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 417–434; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

The Lindsay transform of natural exponential families

Let μ be an infinitely divisible positive measure on R. If the measure ρ_μ is such that x^-2[ρ_μ(dx)—ρ_μ({0})δ₀(dx)] is the Lévy measure associated with μ and is infinitely divisible, we consider for all positive reals α and β the measure T_α,β(μ) which is the convolution of μ*^α and ρ_μ*β. For example, if μ is the inverse Gaussian law, then ρ_μ is a gamma law with paramter 3/2. Then T_α,β(μ) is an extension of the Lindsay transform of the first order, restricted to the distributions which are infinitely divisible. The main aim of this paper is to point out that it is possible to apply this transformation to all natural exponential families (NEF) with strictly cubic variance functions P. We then obtain NEF with variance functions of the form □ΔP(□Δ), where A is an affine function of the mean of the NEF. Some of these latter types appear scattered in the literature.     

Strong invariance principles for triangular arrays of weakly dependent random variables

We establish a strong invariance principle for triangular arrays of a broad class of weakly dependent real random variables. We approximate the original array of dependent random variables by an array of rowwise independent standard normal variables. We demonstrate the functional central limit theorem and law of the iterated logarithm for the approximating array and thereby extend these results to the original array. Among several examples, we look at arrays used in describing the rate of convergence of estimators in regression analysis.     

A reanalysis of a longitudinal scleroderma clinical trial using non-ignorable missingness models

When analyzing incomplete longitudinal clinical trial data, it is often inappropriate to assume that the occurrence of missingness is at random, especially in cases where visits are entirely missed. We present a framework that simultaneously models multivariate incomplete longitudinal data and a non-ignorable missingness mechanism using a Bayesian approach. A criterion measure is presented for comparing models. We demonstrate the feasibility of the methodology through reanalysis of two of the longitudinal measures from a clinical trial of penicillamine treatment for scleroderma patients. We compare the results for univariate and bivariate, ignorable and non-ignorable missingness models.