Estimating Transition Probabilities for Ignorable Intermittent Missing Data in a Discrete-Time Markov Chain

This article considers a discrete-time Markov chain for modeling transition probabilities when multiple successive observations are missing at random between two observed outcomes using three methods: a na\"?ve analog of complete-case analysis using the observed one-step transitions alone, a non data-augmentation method (NL) by solving nonlinear equations, and a data-augmentation method, the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The explicit form of the conditional log-likelihood given the observed information as required by the E step is provided, and the iterative formula in the M step is expressed in a closed form. An empirical study was performed to examine the accuracy and precision of the estimates obtained in the three methods under ignorable missing mechanisms of missing completely at random and missing at random. A dataset from the mental health arena was used for illustration. It was found that both data-augmentation and nonaugmentation methods provide accurate and precise point estimation, and that the na\"?ve method resulted in estimates of the transition probabilities with similar bias but larger MSE. The NL method and the EM algorithm in general provide similar results whereas the latter provides conditional expected row margins leading to smaller standard errors.     

Sparse Functional Principal Component Analysis via Regularized Basis Expansions and Its Application

This article introduces principal component analysis for multidimensional sparse functional data, utilizing Gaussian basis functions. Our multidimensional model is estimated by maximizing a penalized log-likelihood function, while previous mixed-type models were estimated by maximum likelihood methods for one-dimensional data. The penalized estimation performs well for our multidimensional model, while maximum likelihood methods yield unstable parameter estimates and some of the parameter estimates are infinite. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the effectiveness of our method for some types of missing data. The proposed method is applied to handwriting data, which consist of the XY coordinates values in handwritings.