城管执法冲突的三方感知与对策建议——以昆明市五华区为例

从1997年全国第一个综合执法试点建立到现在,城管队伍已经经过了15年的发展。新闻媒体上越演越烈的城管执法冲突事件,给这个直面大众的城市管理部门蒙上了一层阴影。本文以昆明市五华区为例,探究执法者、被执法者以及第三方(其他城市居民)的心理情感和冲突感知,据此剖析城管执法冲突发生的原因,并从转变执法理念、完善法制建设、提高人员素质、调整执法方式、加强舆论宣传等方面提出解决冲突对策。     

A latent variable model for analyzing mixed longitudinal (k,l)-inflated count and ordinal responses

A random effects model for analyzing mixed longitudinal count and ordinal data is presented where the count response is inflated in two points (k and l) and an (k,l)-Inflated Power series distribution is used as its distribution. A full likelihood-based approach is used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of the model. For data with non-ignorable missing values models with probit model for missing mechanism are used.The dependence between longitudinal sequences of responses and inflation parameters are investigated using a random effects approach. Also, to investigate the correlation between mixed ordinal and count responses of each individuals at each time, a shared random effect is used. In order to assess the performance of the model, a simulation study is performed for a case that the count response has (k,l)-Inflated Binomial distribution. Performance comparisons of count-ordinal random effect model, Zero-Inflated ordinal random effects model and (k,l)-Inflated ordinal random effects model are also given. The model is applied to a real social data set from the first two waves of the national longitudinal study of adolescent to adult health (Add Health study). In this data set, the joint responses are the number of days in a month that each individual smoked as the count response and the general health condition of each individual as the ordinal response. For the count response there is incidence of excess values of 0 and 30.     

底层生态与生活重建:新市民社会管理中的社区介入

本文从底层生态的视角,考察新市民的社会生活。研究发现,由于工作性质、经济收入、个人禀赋、社会网络等因素所致,新市民群体的社会生活呈现出明显的多元化和碎片化特征。重建新市民的社会生活,需要以政府为主导,以社区管理为切入点,缩小新市民与原城市居民两大群体的社会距离,帮助新市民融入城市社会。     

社会服务供给集约化发展思路探索

针对我国目前社会服务供给主体发展现状和社会服务供给特性,结合市场集中度和集约化管理理论,分析我国社会服务供给主体存在的主要问题,论述社会服务供给市场集中度与社会服务供给集约化的关系,提出通过降低准入门槛、鼓励主体竞合、强化规模运营、培育大型主体、理顺主体关系、完善竞争机制及优化市场结构等策略与措施,来推动社会服务供给集约化管理。     

Assessing the performance of variational methods for mixed logistic regression models

We present a variational estimation method for the mixed logistic regression model. The method is based on a lower bound approximation of the logistic function [Jaakkola, J.S. and Jordan, M.I., 2000, Bayesian parameter estimation via variational methods. Statistics & Computing, 10, 25–37.]. Based on the approximation, an EM algorithm can be derived that results in a considerable simplification of the maximization problem in that it does not require the numerical evaluation of integrals over the random effects. We assess the performance of the variational method for the mixed logistic regression model in a simulation study and an empirical data example, and compare it to Laplace's method. The results indicate that the variational method is a viable choice for estimating the fixed effects of the mixed logistic regression model under the condition that the number of outcomes within each cluster is sufficiently high.     

Experiences with systematic triangulation at the Global Environment Facility

Systematic triangulation may address common challenges in evaluation, such as the scarcity or unreliability of data, or the complexities of comparing and cross-checking evidence from diverse disciplines. Used to identify key evaluation findings, its application has proven to be effective in addressing the limitations encountered in country-level evaluation analysis conducted by the Independent Evaluation Office of the Global Environment Facility (GEF). These include the scarcity or unreliability of national statistics on environmental indicators and data series, especially in Least Developed Countries; challenges in evaluating the impacts of GEF projects; and inherent difficulties in defining the GEF portfolio of projects prior to the undertaking of the evaluation. In addition to responding to the need for further developing triangulation protocols, procedures and/or methodologies advocated by some authors, the approach offers a contribution to evaluation practice. This applies particularly to those evaluation units tasked with country-level evaluations in international organizations, facing similar constraints.     

贵州社会管理创新:经验、问题与出路

近年来,贵州社会管理创新取得了一些成效,其主要经验是强化中国共产党在社会管理创新中的领导地位,发挥政府在社会管理创新中的主导作用,创新内容要关注民生。尽管如此,贵州社会管理创新还存在社会矛盾化解机制不健全、基层政府社会管理力量薄弱、社会组织培育机制不健全等问题,应通过完善源头治理机制、改革基层社会管理体制、优化社会组织培育机制等途径来解决。     

Performance of Confidence Intervals in Regression Models with Unbalanced One-Fold Nested Error Structures

Abstract

In this article we consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for a linear regression model with unbalanced nested error structure. A popular approach is the likelihood-based method employed by PROC MIXED of SAS. In this article, we examine the ability of MIXED to produce confidence intervals that maintain the stated confidence coefficient. Our results suggest that intervals for the regression coefficients work well, but intervals for the variance component associated with the primary level cannot be recommended. Accordingly, we propose alternative methods for constructing confidence intervals on the primary level variance component. Computer simulation is used to compare the proposed methods. A numerical example and SAS code are provided to demonstrate the methods.     

Calculation of the expected lifetime lost due to an extra risk

Methods are given for estimating the average years of life lost when a person is discovered to be at risk from an extra hazard. The methods use the probability per year of the extra risk striking, and the mean and standard deviation of lifetime in the absence of the risk. The formulae are simple enough that only a hand‐held calculator is needed.