On a problem with singularity in comparison of linear experiments

For consistency, the parameter space in the Gauss-Markov model with singular covariance matrix is usually restricted by observation vector. This restriction arises some difficulties in comparison of linear experiments. To avoid it we reduce the problem of comparison from singular to nonsingular case.     

An adaptive seamless phase II/III design for oncology trials with subpopulation selection using correlated survival endpoints

Although the statistical methods enabling efficient adaptive seamless designs are increasingly well established, it is important to continue to use the endpoints and specifications that best suit the therapy area and stage of development concerned when conducting such a trial. Approaches exist that allow adaptive designs to continue seamlessly either in a subpopulation of patients or in the whole population on the basis of data obtained from the first stage of a phase II/III design: our proposed design adds extra flexibility by also allowing the trial to continue in all patients but with both the subgroup and the full population as co-primary populations. Further, methodology is presented which controls the Type-I error rate at less than 2.5% when the phase II and III endpoints are different but correlated time-to-event endpoints. The operating characteristics of the design are described along with a discussion of the practical aspects in an oncology setting.     

A Cross-Validation Analysis of Neural Network Out-of-Sample Performance in Exchange Rate Forecasting

Econometric methods used in foreign exchange rate forecasting have produced inferior out-of-sample results compared to a random walk model. Applications of neural networks have shown mixed findings. In this paper, we investigate the potentials of neural network models by employing two cross-validation schemes. The effects of different in-sample time periods and sample sizes are examined. Out-of-sample performance evaluated with four criteria across three forecasting horizons shows that neural networks are a more robust forecasting method than the random walk model. Moreover, neural network predictions are quite accurate even when the sample size is relatively small.     

An Evaluation of Routing and Volume-based Storage Policies in an Order Picking Operation

Order picking, the assembly of a customer's order from items in storage, is an essential link in the supply chain and is the major cost component of warehousing. The critical issue is to simultaneously reduce the cost and increase the speed of the order picking activity. This study departs from the limited prior research that focused on either routing of workers or storage of warehoused items. The main objectives are to (1) evaluate various routing heuristics versus an optimal routine in a volume-based storage environment, (2) propose several methods of implementing volume-based storage, and (3) examine the interaction of the routing and storage policies under different operating conditions of pick list size and demand skewness. The experimental results show statistically significant differences in the mean route distance for the routing policies, storage policies, and their interactions. Further testing indicates that the choice of certain routing and storage policies in combination can result in increased picking efficiency.     

Freezing the Master Production Schedule Under Demand Uncertainty

Managing the trade-off between achieving a stable master production schedule (MPS) and being responsive to changes in customer requirements is a difficult problem in many firms where providing a high level of customer service is viewed as an important competitive factor. One alternative for managing this trade-off is to freeze an agreed portion of the MPS. This paper investigates the impact of adjustments in the design parameters of MPS freezing methods on two performance measures (MPS lot-sizing cost and stability) under stochastic demand conditions in a rolling planning horizon environment given a service level target. Simulation experiments are reported which indicate that many of the conclusions regarding the design of MPS freezing methods obtained under deterministic demand conditions hold under stochastic demand.     

也谈信用证欺诈与风险防范

信用证作为一种依赖于银行信用的重要的结算方式已广泛应用于国际贸易中,但是由于信用证采取的是纯粹的单据交易的方式,为一些不法分子提供了可乘之机。信用证欺诈已逐渐成为严重影响当代国际贸易的一种非暴力犯罪。通过分析信用证欺诈在国际贸易实务中的主要表现形式,并根据近年来信用证欺诈呈现的新特点,探讨性提出信用证的各主要当事人进行欺诈防范的相关措施。     

Partitioning Work Centers for Group Technology: Analytical Extension and Shop-Level Simulation Investigation*

This paper investigates the effects of partitioning job shop work centers to implement cellular manufacturing. Analytical models are utilized to show that partitioning leads to adverse effects on flow characteristics. The setup reduction introduced in partitioned systems has to overcome these adverse effects before leading to the benefits associated with cellular manufacturing. It is shown that partitioned systems with an insufficient degree of setup reduction are inferior to unpartitioned systems. Two new parameters relevant to this context, the breakeven setup reduction factor and flow ratio, are introduced for the design of viable cellular manufacturing systems. These insights are verified using a shop-level simulation experiment, assuming non-Markovian conditions. The experimental factors include lot size, setup reduction factor, cell size and allowance of inter-cell movements. It is shown that the results are consistent with analytical insights in indicating the range of parameters in which cellular manufacturing may compare favorably with the best of the functional-layout systems.     

A Model for Master Production Scheduling in Uncertain Environments

In uncertain environments, the master production schedule (MPS) is usually developed using a rolling schedule. When utilizing a rolling schedule, the MPS is replanned periodically and a portion of the MPS is frozen in each planning cycle. The cost performance of a rolling schedule depends on three decisions: the choice of the replanning interval (R), which determines how often the MPS should be replanned; the choice of the frozen interval (F), which determines how many periods the MPS should be frozen in each planning cycle; and the choice of the forecast window (T), which is the time interval over which the MPS is determined using newly updated forecast data. This paper uses an analytical approach to study the master production scheduling process in uncertain environments without capacity constraints, where the MPS is developed using a rolling schedule. It focuses on the choices of F, R, and T for the MPS. A conceptual framework that includes all important MPS time intervals is described. The effects of F, R, and T on system costs, which include the forecast error, MPS change, setup, and inventory holding costs, are also explored. Finally, a mathematical model for the MPS is presented. This model approximates the average system cost as a function of F, R, T, and several environmental factors. It can be used to estimate the associated system costs for any combination of F, R, and T.     

Optimal Purchase and Transportation Cost Lot Sizing for a Single Item

A review of the literature indicates that the traditional approach for evaluating quantity discount offerings for purchased items has not adequately considered the effect that transportation costs may have on the optimal order quantity; despite the general fact that purchased materials must bear transportation charges. The transportation cost structure for less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments reflects sizable reductions in freight rates when the shipment size exceeds one of the nominal rate breakpoints. However, the shipper must also be aware of the opportunity to reduce total freight costs by artificially inflating the actual shipping weight to the next rate breakpoint, in order that a lower marginal tariff is achieved for the entire shipment. Such over-declared shipments result in an effective freight rate schedule that is characterized by constant fixed charge segments in addition to the nominal marginal rates. Over-declared shipments are economical when the shipment volume is less than the rate breakpoint, but greater than a cost indifference point between the two adjacent marginal rates. This paper presents a simple analytical procedure for finding the order quantity that minimizes total purchase costs which reflect both transportation economies and quantity discounts. After first solving for the series of indifference points that apply to a particular freight rate schedule, a total purchase cost expression is presented that properly accounts for the actual transportation cost structure. The optimal purchase order quantity will be one of the four following possibilities: (1) the valid economic order quantity (EOQ), QC; (2) a purchase price breakpoint in excess of QC; (3) a transportation rate breakpoint in excess of QC; and (4) a modified EOQ which provides an over-declared shipment in excess of QC. Finally, an algorithm which systematically explores these four possibilities is presented and illustrated with a numerical example.     

Partitioning Work Centers for Group Technology: Insights from an Analytical Model*

This paper develops analytical approximations based on an M/M/c queuing model, for the operating characteristics of job shop work centers. The model is used to analyze the effects of partitioning a work center and introducing setup reduction into the cell components. The results using this model are shown to be consistent with the results of prior simulation-based studies of group technology under certain parameter ranges. A simulation experiment was conducted to verify the effects with multi-item, non-Markovian assumptions, and the general effects predicted by the model were found to apply.