引进外资是否促进中国对外直接投资?——基于空间溢出与门槛特征的经验分析

在吸引外资与对外投资出现并驾齐驱发展趋势及十九大报告提出"坚持引进来和走出去并重"的背景下,讨论了中国引进外资政策是否有效促进了地区对外投资增长这一重要命题。首先,梳理了引进外资影响对外直接投资机制,对已有文献做出补充。其次,利用2003-2016年中国省级层面数据,构建R&D资本、R&D人员和经济空间权重,运用空间面板模型和门槛模型发现:(1)区域OFDI活动存在显著空间溢出效应,邻近地区OFDI对本地区OFDI具有明显"竞争效应";(2)短期内FDI对区域OFDI有正向促进作用,长期内影响则表现"倒U型";(3)以金融发展为门槛变量,证实FDI对区域OFDI存在三重门槛的非线性影响。最后,从协调两者发展机制、引进高质量外商资本和优化地区发展环境方面提出相应建议。     

A kind of stochastic recursive Zero-Sum differential game problem with double obstacles constraint

Abstract

This paper concerns a class of stochastic recursive zero-sum differential game problem with recursive utility related to a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) with double obstacles. A sufficient condition is provided to obtain the saddle-point strategy under some assumptions. In virtue of the corresponding relationship of doubly reflected BSDE and mixed game problem, a stochastic linear recursive mixed differential game problem is studied to apply our theoretical result, and here the explicit saddle-point strategy as well as the saddle-point stopping time for the mixed game problem are obtained. Besides, a numeral example is also given to demonstrate the result by virtue of partial differential equations (PDEs) computation method.     

A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry

Reproduction constraints lead to some a priori information that may prove valuable in econo- metrically modeling inventory dynamics within the U.S. cattle herd. The distributed-lag models estimated for animal inventories suggest an implicit incorporation of the age distribution of the herd that is crucial to understanding the retention/culling (investment) decisions. The estimated equations are validated using post-sample observations that were withheld prior to estimation. The final-form dynamic equations have complex roots and protracted price and investment effects. The parameter estimates are used to calculate intermediate and long-run elasticities at the means of relevant variables.     

The relationship between unit diversity and perceptions of organizational performance in the military

Structural equation modeling techniques are used to examine the relationship between demographic diversity and perceptions of organizational performance in military units. Analyzing data from the Military Equal Opportunity Climate Survey reveals higher female and minority representation reduces females’ and minorities’ perceptions of organizational effectiveness, respectively. Identical factors appear to influence the perceptions of organizational performance across these two subgroups of employees. The results demonstrate the importance of conducting separate analyses for subgroups in examining the effects of demographic diversity on organizational performance.     

Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Linear-Quadratic Approximation

I describe a method that can be used to approximate the solution of the stochastic growth model. The method relies on approximating the return and transition functions of the original problem by taking second-order and first-order Taylor expansions around the steady state of the system. The result is the optimal linear regulator problem.     

Approximate Bayesian Inference in Spatial Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Abstract.  In this paper we propose fast approximate methods for computing posterior marginals in spatial generalized linear mixed models. We consider the common geostatistical case with a high dimensional latent spatial variable and observations at known registration sites. The methods of inference are deterministic, using no simulation-based inference. The first proposed approximation is fast to compute and is 'practically sufficient', meaning that results do not show any bias or dispersion effects that might affect decision making. Our second approximation, an improvement of the first version, is 'practically exact', meaning that one would have to run MCMC simulations for very much longer than is typically done to detect any indication of error in the approximate results. For small-count data the approximations are slightly worse, but still very accurate. Our methods are limited to likelihood functions that give unimodal full conditionals for the latent variable. The methods help to expand the future scope of non-Gaussian geostatistical models as illustrated by applications of model choice, outlier detection and sampling design. The approximations take seconds or minutes of CPU time, in sharp contrast to overnight MCMC runs for solving such problems.     

试论英语教学中的“情感过滤”

“情感过滤”和“输入”是影响外语习得的两大重要因素。该文首先论述了“情感过滤”对外语习得和学习的作用机制 ,然后分析了引起“情感过滤”的四大情感因素 ,并提出怎样减少或消除学习者的“情感过滤”来提高英语教学质量的方法。     

Information loss due to incomplete data from a spatial gaussian one-parameter first-order conditional process

Formulae are given for the Fisher information loss on parameters for the mean and the variance when some values of a Gaussian process are not observed. The special case of a one-parameter first-order conditional process on a rectangular lattice is considered in detail, and formulae are compared with numerical results.     

Alternative approaches to testing non-nested models with autocorrelated disturbances

Since departures from the classical assumptions regarding the disturbances in a linear tegression model arise frequently in empirical application, deveral computationally Straightforward procedutes are presented in this paper for testiog non-nested models when the disturbances of these models follow first- or higher-order autoregressive processes. Anempirical example is used to illustrate how the procedures may be used to test competing Keynesian and New Classical non-nested models of unemployment for the U.S using annual time series data for 1955-85.     

Do Legacy Industrial Sites Produce Legacy Effects in Ethnic and Racial Residential Settlement? Environmental Inequality Formation in Rhode Island’s Industrial Core1

This study advances understanding of environmental inequality by examining its production through the interaction of two ubiquitous and ongoing urban-ecological processes: industrial land-use changes and changing patterns of residential segregation. We employ longitudinal data from the Rhode Island Directory of Manufacturers (1953–2012) and tract-level US Census data measured at four panel-years (1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010) to study the effects of these interactions in Rhode Island’s historical industrial cities of Providence, Pawtucket, and Central Falls. Spatial patterning analysis and hybrid spatial panel modeling of residential exposure to active and legacy industrial sites in relation to ongoing racial and industrial change reveal two novel findings. First, we find a “legacy effect,” suggesting that the spatial organization of industrial activities prior to the study period has measurable impacts on patterns of residential segregation in later decades. Our results also indicate that over the study period Latinx and African-American residents have become increasingly less likely to bear disproportionate impacts of active manufacturing sites, despite very different spatial patterns of population growth. This is strong evidence that environmental inequality formation is a variable process in which historically distinct pathways can lead to similarly disproportionate exposure to environmental risk.