元前文献图籍所载黄河河源

有关黄河河源的概念，古代各种史学、地理、以及宗教文献都有相关记载。早期文献中提出的重源潜流的概念，也为塑造河源空间概念留下了发挥余地。及至唐朝，各种类书、笔记、野史关于位于境外的河源的著述沿用了上述文献中已有的地理知识，并融入了佛教世界观的空间概念以及唐代实地考察的纪录，逐渐构成了河源这一多元化的空间想象。本文探讨了不同知识框架对唐代河源记载的影响，以及在几幅现存宋代地图上所反映出的相关影响。这类文献资料有助于我们理解中古地理知识的深化与演变，以及后代地图上展示河源的更丰富的地图表现形式。     

Anticipated Backward Stochastic Differential Equation with Reflection

In this article, we deal with anticipated backward stochastic differential equation with reflecting boundary. The existence and uniqueness of solution is obtained for equation with Lipschitz and non-Lipschitz generator.     

基于结构方程模型的农民工可雇佣性的决定因素研究——基于中部六省的调查

农民工是中国人力资源的重要组成部分。从智能、技能、体能和心能四个维度构建农民工可雇佣性模型,根据调查问卷收集数据,运用结构方程验证了农民工可雇佣性模型的合理性,研究了农民工可雇佣性及其各维度间的关系。结果表明,各维度对农民工可雇佣性影响程度依次为:技能、心能、智能和体能。农民工因年龄、文化程度不同,在可雇佣能力、技能、心能和智能方面存在显著性差异,但是在体能上没有显著差异。     

Accelerating inference for diffusions observed with measurement error and large sample sizes using approximate Bayesian computation

In recent years, dynamical modelling has been provided with a range of breakthrough methods to perform exact Bayesian inference. However, it is often computationally unfeasible to apply exact statistical methodologies in the context of large data sets and complex models. This paper considers a nonlinear stochastic differential equation model observed with correlated measurement errors and an application to protein folding modelling. An approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)-MCMC algorithm is suggested to allow inference for model parameters within reasonable time constraints. The ABC algorithm uses simulations of ‘subsamples’ from the assumed data-generating model as well as a so-called ‘early-rejection’ strategy to speed up computations in the ABC-MCMC sampler. Using a considerate amount of subsamples does not seem to degrade the quality of the inferential results for the considered applications. A simulation study is conducted to compare our strategy with exact Bayesian inference, the latter resulting two orders of magnitude slower than ABC-MCMC for the considered set-up. Finally, the ABC algorithm is applied to a large size protein data. The suggested methodology is fairly general and not limited to the exemplified model and data.     

Creating the Next Wave of Family Therapy

This article is an exploration of family therapy in Australia based on interviews with seven leading Australian family therapists: Max Cornwell, Carolyn Quadrio, Ron Perry, Laurie MacKinnon, Brian Stagoll, Banu Moloney and Jim Crawley. It explores the attributes and qualities of what makes a good family therapist and seeks to understand how the next generation of therapists can generate a new enthusiasm for family therapy.     

Semi-empirical likelihood inference for the ROC curve with missing data

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is one of the most commonly used methods to compare the diagnostic performance of two or more laboratory or diagnostic tests. In this paper, we propose semi-empirical likelihood based confidence intervals for ROC curves of two populations, where one population is parametric and the other one is non-parametric and both have missing data. After imputing missing values, we derive the semi-empirical likelihood ratio statistic and the corresponding likelihood equations. It is shown that the log-semi-empirical likelihood ratio statistic is asymptotically scaled chi-squared. The estimating equations are solved simultaneously to obtain the estimated lower and upper bounds of semi-empirical likelihood confidence intervals. We conduct extensive simulation studies to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed empirical likelihood confidence intervals with various sample sizes and different missing probabilities.     

Dividend barrier and ruin problems for a risk model with delayed claims

In this paper, a compound Poisson risk model in the presence of a constant dividend barrier is considered. Two types of individual claims, main claims and by-claims, are defined, where every by-claim is induced by the main claim and and the time of delay for the claim is assumed to be random. A system of integro-differential equations with certain boundary conditions for the expected discounted penalty function is derived. We show that its solution can be expressed as the solution to the expected discounted penalty function in the same risk model with the absence of a barrier plus a linear combination of two linearly independent solutions to the associated homogeneous integro-differential equation. Using systems of integro-differential equations for the moment-generating function as well as for the arbitrary moments of the sum of discounted dividend payments until ruin, a matrix version of the dividends–penalty type relationship is derived. We also prove that ruin is certain under constant dividend barrier strategy. The closed form expressions are given when the claim amounts from both classes are exponentially distributed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the solution procedure.     

空间批评视角下的《生日》

从空间批评视角看,文本中的空间不再是静止的＂容器＂,而是一种蕴含多维文化信息的指涉系统,注重文本中空间的社会、文化属性。在美国华裔作家雷祖威的短篇小说《生日》中,与华裔青年华莱士·王的爱情故事相关的几个空间场景不仅再现了华裔的现实生活世界,更充分展示了他们居于社会边缘的处境与内心疏离的痛苦。     

Bayesian penalized B-spline estimation approach for epidemic models

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are normally used to model dynamic processes in applied sciences such as biology, engineering, physics, and many other areas. In these models, the parameters are usually unknown, and thus they are often specified artificially or empirically. Alternatively, a feasible method is to estimate the parameters based on observed data. In this study, we propose a Bayesian penalized B-spline approach to estimate the parameters and initial values for ODEs used in epidemiology. We evaluated the efficiency of the proposed method based on simulations using the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the Kermack–McKendrick model. The proposed approach is also illustrated based on a real application to the transmission dynamics of hepatitis C virus in mainland China.     

服装系列设计方法之“抽象方程”论

通过长期的实践教学经验总结,将服装系列设计方法与数学方程联系在一起,形成服装系列设计的"抽象方程"理论,使服装系列设计具有了定向、定量、明确、有序的特征,力求寻找一条由简到繁、由易到难、循序渐进的学习实践方法,帮助服装设计初学者尽早摆脱设计瓶颈,步入设计正轨。