空间面板数据模型设定问题分析

空间面板数据模型将空间计量经济学和面板数据方法相结合,不仅同时考虑时空特征,而且将空间效应纳入研究体系,成为当前计量经济学的热点研究领域,但其模型设定、参数估计及模型检验也更为复杂,实证研究中往往出现模型设定偏误等问题。因此,基于空间面板数据模型的前沿理论,重点探讨模型设定中的常见问题,包括空间滞后模型与空间误差模型的选择、随机效应与固定效应的选择以及模型拟合优度的选择与比较,为模型的应用和新模型的扩展提供理论依据和参考。     

浅谈休止

通过对休止即空拍的分析,提出了休止在音乐当中的重要作用;休止符在乐段不同的位置上（开头、中间及段落中间）产生的不同的效果以及休止符在乐句、乐节和动机中产生的不同的效果;及准确弹奏休止即空拍的方法：教师在教学中要让学生认清准确“弹奏”休止符的重要性;教师在教课时要向学生详细讲解休止在曲子中的意义,使学生在理解的基础上弹奏休止,会起到更好的效果。     

土地可持续性利用的空间分析——经济学和生态学模型

经济学家忽视空间格局和动态研究,而景观生态学家很重视土地的空间分析。经济学家的参与会使生态学家的研究更深入。本文讨论经济学家在土地利用空间分析中的研究途径及可能遇到的困难。     

“新丝绸之路”交通基础设施与全要素生产率增长

采用基于面板数据的空间计量分析方法,实证了"新丝绸之路"交通基础设施与全要素生产率增长之间的关系。结果显示:"新丝绸之路"交通基础设施对全要素生产率有着显著的正向影响;铁路与等级较高的公路对全要素生产率增长的空间溢出效应为74.77%;各类交通基础设施对全要素生产率增长的贡献份额为59.0704%;铁路、高速公路对全要素生产率增长有着显著持续的正向促进作用。     

具有正弦、余弦、正切鉴相特性的一类三阶锁相环路方程的定性分析

本文对采用理想积分滤波器和RC积分滤波器得到正弦、余弦、正切鉴相特性三阶锁相环路方程，运用首次近似方法，对等价系统判定平衡点渐近稳定、不稳定及拓扑结构，运用Liapunov函数研究渐近稳定的吸引域，进而提供所论环路方程有失锁点。     

Impact Factors and Risk Analysis of Tropical Cyclones on a Highway Network

Coastal areas typically have high social and economic development and are likely to suffer huge losses due to tropical cyclones. These cyclones have a great impact on the transportation network, but there have been a limited number of studies about tropical‐cyclone‐induced transportation network functional damages, especially in Asia. This study develops an innovative measurement and analytical tool for highway network functional damage and risk in the context of a tropical cyclone, with which we explored the critical spatial characteristics of tropical cyclones with regard to functional damage to a highway network by developing linear regression models to quantify their relationship. Furthermore, we assessed the network's functional risk and calculated the return periods under different damage levels. In our analyses, we consider the real‐world highway network of Hainan province, China. Our results illustrate that the most important spatial characteristics were location (in particular, the midlands), travel distance, landfalling status, and origin coordinates. However, the trajectory direction did not obviously affect the results. Our analyses indicate that the highway network of Hainan province may suffer from a 90% functional damage scenario every 4.28 years. These results have critical policy implications for the transport sector in reference to emergency planning and disaster reduction.     

Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory

There is a paucity of research examining public response to the cumulative effects of multiple related extreme events over time. We investigated the separate and combined effects of frequency and trajectory of terrorist attacks. A scenario simulation of a series of gas station bombings in Southern California was developed to evaluate respondents' affect, risk perception, and intended avoidance behavior using a 3 (frequency; low vs. medium vs. high) by 3 (trajectory; increasing vs. constant vs. decreasing) factorial design. For each of the nine conditions, three videos were created to simulate news broadcasts documenting the attacks over a three‐week period. A total of 275 respondents were included in the analysis. Results from analysis of covariances (ANCOVAs) indicate that trajectory of the sequential attacks (increasing or decreasing in frequency) predicts negative affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior. In contrast, frequency predicts neither negative affect, positive affect, risk perception, nor intended avoidance behavior. Results from structural equation modeling (SEM) further indicate that the effect of negative affect on behavioral intention is mediated by risk perception and the effect of trajectory on risk perception is partially mediated by negative affect. In addition, both ANCOVAs and SEM model results suggest that (1) females experience less positive affect and perceive more risk than males, (2) respondents with higher income perceive more risk, and (3) younger respondents are more likely to modify their behavior to avoid the risk of future attacks.     

无限大双各向同性媒质中的矩阵并矢

讨论了双各向同性媒质中矩阵并矢格林函数的求解方法,给出了无限大双各向同性媒质中矩阵并矢格林函数主值和奇异项的计算结果。上述理论工作为随机分布双各向同性媒质散射场和媒质等效特性的计算奠定了基础。     

商圈时空动态性研究

传统商圈理论对于研究商业企业,特别是研究零售商业企业销售辐射范围是一种有效的工具。随着社会主义市场经济的发展,商圈的概念不应只是服务于单个零售企业,而应该看成一定空间商业企业的集聚,随着集聚产生了商圈内和商圈间的相互竞争,并对商圈时间动态性和空间动态性产生了深刻影响。商圈不仅随着经济周期、季节和生命周期等时间因素发生变化,而且随着各种外部和内部空间因素发生动态变化。     

城市新型城镇化水平的时空差异与影响因素研究——以安徽省为例

新型城镇化是经济社会发展到一定阶段的必然产物。文章通过构建能够合理测度安徽省新型城镇化水平的综合评价指标体系,运用DEA方法建立数据包络模型,对安徽省2005—2014年16个地级城市的新型城镇化水平进行效率分析,对城镇化发展空间格局的演变进行深入探究,并分析其影响因素,最后对安徽省如何有效地推进新型城镇化提出建议。