90年代特大城市发展与流动人口关系探析

以上海为例，通过对流动人口的抽样调查分析，探讨人口流动与特大城市的经济结构及空间扩散效应之间的相关性，以期寻求人口流动与特大城市经济发展之间的内在规律性，为中国特大城市发展和制订人口政策提供参考。     

劳动力流动对中国地区经济差距影响的空间计量经济模型分析

学术界对劳动力流动对地区经济发展产生的影响有两种不同观点：一种观点认为劳动力流动能够缩小地区差距;另一种观点则认为劳动力流动会扩大地区发展差距。考虑各地区经济发展的空间依赖性,通过构建空间计量经济模型,并利用中国各省区经济的面板数据进行研究与实证分析。结果表明：劳动力流动对中国不同地区经济发展的作用方向和强度表现不同,对地区差距的影响是劳动力流入与劳动力流出综合作用产生的结果。     

Semiparametric estimation of spatial long-range dependence

Estimation of the long-range dependence parameter in spatial processes using a semiparametric approach is studied. An extended formulation of the averaged periodogram method proposed in Robinson [1994. Semiparametric analysis of long memory time series. Ann. Statist. 22, 515–539] is derived, considering a certain homogeneous and isotropic behaviour of the spectral distribution in the low frequencies. The weak consistency of the estimator proposed is proved.     

Origins of linguistic zonation in the Australian Alps. part 1 - Huygens' principle

The hitherto poorly recorded boundaries of extinct traditional south-east-Australian Aboriginal languages can now be redetermined with greatly improved precision using an entropy-maximizing phonetic-signature calculated from existing data sources, including old word-lists and census forms, that have, until now, largely been considered informationally worthless. Having thus determined traditional Aboriginal language zones to a previously unimaginable degree of geographical precision, it is argued that these boundaries should not be viewed merely as a static 'snapshot' but, instead, as the end-product of a knowable dynamic process (Gillieron wave propagation) governed by well-known physical rules (such as Huygens' principle and Snell's Law) and operating over 'deep' time-scales more familiar to the archaeologist than the linguist. Although this initial study is limited to south-eastern Australia, the new methodology provides the first real hope of obtaining a detailed understanding of language dispersal throughout the entire continent over the past 60,000 years.     

Modelling method effects as individual causal effects

Summary.  Method effects often occur when different methods are used for measuring the same construct. We present a new approach for modelling this kind of phenomenon, consisting of a definition of method effects and a first model, the method effect model , that can be used for data analysis. This model may be applied to multitrait–multimethod data or to longitudinal data where the same construct is measured with at least two methods at all occasions. In this new approach, the definition of the method effects is based on the theory of individual causal effects by Neyman and Rubin. Method effects are accordingly conceptualized as the individual effects of applying measurement method j instead of k . They are modelled as latent difference scores in structural equation models. A reference method needs to be chosen against which all other methods are compared. The model fit is invariant to the choice of the reference method. The model allows the estimation of the average of the individual method effects, their variance, their correlation with the traits (and other latent variables) and the correlation of different method effects among each other. Furthermore, since the definition of the method effects is in line with the theory of causality, the method effects may (under certain conditions) be interpreted as causal effects of the method. The method effect model is compared with traditional multitrait–multimethod models. An example illustrates the application of the model to longitudinal data analysing the effect of negatively (such as 'feel bad') as compared with positively formulated items (such as 'feel good') measuring mood states.     

试论作为一种研究思路的结构方程模型

结构方程模型（SEM）是一种采用验证性研究路径分析某一现象结构理论的统计方法.近年来已逐步运用于外语教育的多个研究领域,但在实际应用中却存在明显误区,即SEM研究的设计方案多数是探索性分析.这既不同于国外学者的验证性研究取向,也违背了SEM重在验证性分析的基本原则.从方法论的高度审视SEM的实质,指出SEM不仅是一种非实验研究范式,更是一种极具价值的研究思路,即先理论后实证具有普适性的研究思路.此外,还从理论的基本特征出发,结合语言研究的具体案例探讨SEM的主要适用情况.     

Spatio‐temporal modelling of disease mapping of rates

This paper studies generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of geographic and temporal variability of disease rates. This class of models adopts spatially correlated random effects and random temporal components. Spatio‐temporal models that use conditional autoregressive smoothing across the spatial dimension and autoregressive smoothing over the temporal dimension are developed. The model also accommodates the interaction between space and time. However, the effect of seasonal factors has not been previously addressed and in some applications (e.g., health conditions), these effects may not be negligible. The authors incorporate the seasonal effects of month and possibly year as part of the proposed model and estimate model parameters through generalized estimating equations. The model provides smoothed maps of disease risk and eliminates the instability of estimates in low‐population areas while maintaining geographic resolution. They illustrate the approach using a monthly data set of the number of asthma presentations made by children to Emergency Departments (EDs) in the province of Alberta, Canada, during the period 2001–2004. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 698–715; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

Using geocoded survey data to improve the accuracy of multilevel small area synthetic estimates

This paper examines the secondary data requirements for multilevel small area synthetic estimation (ML-SASE). This research method uses secondary survey data sets as source data for statistical models. The parameters of these models are used to generate data for small areas. The paper assesses the impact of knowing the geographical location of survey respondents on the accuracy of estimates, moving beyond debating the generic merits of geocoded social survey datasets to examine quantitatively the hypothesis that knowing the approximate location of respondents can improve the accuracy of the resultant estimates. Four sets of synthetic estimates are generated to predict expected levels of limiting long term illnesses using different levels of knowledge about respondent location. The estimates were compared to comprehensive census data on limiting long term illness (LLTI). Estimates based on fully geocoded data were more accurate than estimates based on data that did not include geocodes.     

一类含多滞量的非线性中立型差分方程的振动准则

研究了含有多个滞量的非线性中立型差分方程的振动性，得到了该类方程振动的一个充要条件     

福建省科教投入对GDP影响的实证分析

本文主要以福建省1990年到2004年教科研投入与GDP之间的数据关系为依托,借助计量经济模型,运用OLS~2原理,说明科教投入在福建GDP增长过程中的重要贡献,并作比较分析,为加强科教兴省,促进海峡西岸经济区建设提供事实与理论依据。