Impact Factors and Risk Analysis of Tropical Cyclones on a Highway Network

Coastal areas typically have high social and economic development and are likely to suffer huge losses due to tropical cyclones. These cyclones have a great impact on the transportation network, but there have been a limited number of studies about tropical‐cyclone‐induced transportation network functional damages, especially in Asia. This study develops an innovative measurement and analytical tool for highway network functional damage and risk in the context of a tropical cyclone, with which we explored the critical spatial characteristics of tropical cyclones with regard to functional damage to a highway network by developing linear regression models to quantify their relationship. Furthermore, we assessed the network's functional risk and calculated the return periods under different damage levels. In our analyses, we consider the real‐world highway network of Hainan province, China. Our results illustrate that the most important spatial characteristics were location (in particular, the midlands), travel distance, landfalling status, and origin coordinates. However, the trajectory direction did not obviously affect the results. Our analyses indicate that the highway network of Hainan province may suffer from a 90% functional damage scenario every 4.28 years. These results have critical policy implications for the transport sector in reference to emergency planning and disaster reduction.     

Partitioning Pearson's Chi-squared Statistic for Singly Ordered Two-way Contingency Tables

This paper presents a partition of Pearson's chi-squared statistic for singly ordered two-way contingency tables. The partition involves using orthogonal polynomials for the ordinal variable while generalized basic vectors are used for the non-ordinal variable. The benefit of this partition is that important information about the structure of the ordered variable can be identified in terms of locations, dispersion and higher order components. For the non-ordinal variable, it is shown that the squared singular values from the singular value decomposition of the transformed dataset can be partitioned into location, dispersion and higher order components. The paper also uses the chi-squared partition to present an alternative to the maximum likelihood technique of parameter estimation for the log-linear analysis of the contingency table.     

Modelling Correlated Zero-inflated Count Data

This paper extends the two-component approach to modelling count data with extra zeros, considered by Mullahy (1986), Heilbron (1994) and Welsh et al. (1996), to take account of possible serial dependence between repeated observations. Generalized estimating equations (Liang & Zeger, 1986) are constructed for each component of the model by incorporating correlation matrices into each of the maximum likelihood estimating equations. The proposed method is demonstrated on weekly counts of Noisy Friarbirds ( Philemon cornic-ulatus ), which were recorded by observers for the Canberra Garden Bird Survey (Hermes, 1981).     

Modeling of rates over a hierarchical health administrative structure

Identifying the distribution of the incidence rate of a disease over a region is a prediction problem where area‐specific random effects are to be estimated. The authors consider the inclusion of such effects at different levels of a hierarchical health administrative structure. They develop inference procedures for this type of multi‐level model and show that the predicted rates are approximately weighted sums of the crude rates obtained by pooling data on each level of the hierarchy. Their techniques are illustrated using infant mortality data from British Columbia.     

Banach空间中Hammerstein型积分微分方程初值问题的一种拟上下解法

通过建立一个新的比较原理,利用L-拟上下解方法和混合单调迭代法,研究了Banach空间中一阶非线性积分微分方程初值问题解的存在唯一性,并给出了近似解的迭代序列和误差估计式.     

Identification of local clusters for count data: a model-based Moran's I test

We set out I_DR as a loglinear-model-based Moran's I test for Poisson count data that resembles the Moran's I residual test for Gaussian data. We evaluate its type I and type II error probabilities via simulations, and demonstrate its utility via a case study. When population sizes are heterogeneous, I_DR is effective in detecting local clusters by local association terms with an acceptable type I error probability. When used in conjunction with local spatial association terms in loglinear models, I_DR can also indicate the existence of first-order global cluster that can hardly be removed by local spatial association terms. In this situation, I_DR should not be directly applied for local cluster detection. In the case study of St. Louis homicides, we bridge loglinear model methods for parameter estimation to exploratory data analysis, so that a uniform association term can be defined with spatially varied contributions among spatial neighbors. The method makes use of exploratory tools such as Moran's I scatter plots and residual plots to evaluate the magnitude of deviance residuals, and it is effective to model the shape, the elevation and the magnitude of a local cluster in the model-based test.     

情感因素与外语教学

在外语教学中,正确运用情感因素,充分重视并处理好教学中教师和学生的情感过滤问题,有助于师生之间的情感交流和教学效果的提高。     

关于城乡结合部“小银行”提升核心竞争力的思考

核心竞争力是企业和银行实现又好又快发展、赢得竞争优势、获得丰厚利润的关键因素，提升核心竞争力已成为经营者和管理者的一致追求。在对城乡结合部“小银行”提升核心竞争力理论探索的基础上，通过实证分析提出了提升“小银行”核心竞争力的对策思考。     

Multivariate applications of the ash in regression

A simple algorithm for estimating the regression function over the United States is introduced. The approach allows for data obtained from a complicated sampling design, as well as for the inclusion of a few additional covariates. The regression estimates are obtained from an associated probability density estimate, namely the averaged shifted histogram. The algorithm has proven especially successful over a large mesh, say 300 by 200 nodes, in a data rich setting, even on a 486 computer running Splus. We currently run much higher resolution meshes on a Pentium. Commonly available alternative codes including kriging failed to produce useful estimates in this setting.     

关于半无界弦振动问题的解

对半无界弦振动问题给出一个较强的结果