以策略训练为基础的外语教学对阅读理解的影响

以策略训练为基础的外语教学能有效地提高学生的阅读能力，尤其在理解文章中心思想和判断推理能力方面有较大提高。对提高学生自主学习能力有积极作用。该研究还为大学英语教学提供了可借鉴的启示。     

Mapping Invasive Species Risks with Stochastic Models: A Cross-Border United States-Canada Application for Sirex noctilio Fabricius

Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.     

跨文化交际教育中的交流模式解析

伴随着全球化进程，跨文化交际过程中对于交流技巧的关注愈来愈多。交流的方式及过程直接影响到交流效果的好坏，于是如何使用得当的方式处理交流过程中涉及的信息、意义便成为保障顺利交流的关键。文本试从解析交流过程中信息的产生及走向为出发点，重点探讨改进意义的方式，并最终建构跨文化交际教育中更为科学合理的交流模式。     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French Cold-Smoked Salmon: II. Risk Characterization

A model for the assessment of exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold-smoked salmon consumption in France was presented in the first of this pair of articles (Pouillot et al ., 2007, Risk Analysis, 27:683–700). In the present study, the exposure model output was combined with an internationally accepted hazard characterization model, adapted to the French situation, to assess the risk of invasive listeriosis from cold-smoked salmon consumption in France in a second-order Monte Carlo simulation framework. The annual number of cases of invasive listeriosis due to cold-smoked salmon consumption in France is estimated to be 307, with a very large credible interval ([10; 12,453]), reflecting data uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly associated with the dose-response model. Despite the significant uncertainty associated with the predictions, this model provides a scientific base for risk managers and food business operators to manage the risk linked to cold-smoked salmon contaminated with L. monocytogenes. Under the modeling assumptions, risk would be efficiently reduced through a decrease in the prevalence of L. monocytogenes or better control of the last steps of the cold chain (shorter and/or colder storage during the consumer step), whereas reduction of the initial contamination levels of the contaminated products and improvement in the first steps of the cold chain do not seem to be promising strategies. An attempt to apply the recent risk-based concept of FSO (food safety objective) on this example underlines the ambiguity in practical implementation of the risk management metrics and the need for further elaboration on these concepts.     

基于测井资料的低孔低渗储层产能预测研究

针对低孔低渗储层产能预测模型受敏感因素影响大，主次因素在低产情况下区别不明显，产能预测评价相对较困难等实际问题，以准噶尔盆地夏子街地区夏77井、夏79井为例，开展低孔低渗储层产能预测的前期试验研究，对多个产能预测模型及其适用条件进行了对比分析，从Darcy模型、Jones（1976）模型、Vogel/Harrison（1968）模型、裂缝模型中进行优选和调试。通过分析产能预测模型结果与测试结果在产量上的相关性，表明基于测井资料的预测结果与试油测试结果相当吻合，从而确认产能预测模型结果的可靠性。     

高职数学“自主探究”教学模式的实验研究

探讨“自主探究”教学模式对高职数学教学具有重要的作用。研究结果表明：（1）学生的自主探究能力与学生学习兴趣、学习态度之间有密切联系。（2）“自主探究”教学模式在培养学生自主探究能力方面是有效的，并且效果显著。（3）“自主探究”教学模式在提高学生的数学成绩方面是有影响的。     

Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) according to the Codex Alimentarius Principles is conducted to evaluate the risk of human salmonellosis through household consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium. The quantitative exposure assessment is carried out by building a modular risk model, called the METZOON-model, which covers the pork production from farm to fork. In the METZOON-model, the food production pathway is split up in six consecutive modules: (1) primary production, (2) transport and lairage, (3) slaughterhouse, (4) postprocessing, (5) distribution and storage, and (6) preparation and consumption. All the modules are developed to resemble as closely as possible the Belgian situation, making use of the available national data. Several statistical refinements and improved modeling techniques are proposed. The model produces highly realistic results. The baseline predicted number of annual salmonellosis cases is 20,513 ( SD 9061.45). The risk is estimated higher for the susceptible population (estimate  4.713 × 10⁻⁵; SD 1.466 × 10⁻⁵  ) compared to the normal population  (estimate 7.704 × 10⁻⁶; SD 5.414 × 10⁻⁶)  and is mainly due to undercooking and to a smaller extent to cross-contamination in the kitchen via cook's hands.     

Could Removing Arsenic from Tobacco Smoke Significantly Reduce Smoker Risks of Lung Cancer?

If a specific biological mechanism could be determined by which a carcinogen increases lung cancer risk, how might this knowledge be used to improve risk assessment? To explore this issue, we assume (perhaps incorrectly) that arsenic in cigarette smoke increases lung cancer risk by hypermethylating the promoter region of gene p16INK4a, leading to a more rapid entry of altered (initiated) cells into a clonal expansion phase. The potential impact on lung cancer of removing arsenic is then quantified using a three‐stage version of a multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) model. This refines the usual two‐stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis by resolving its intermediate or “initiated” cell compartment into two subcompartments, representing experimentally observed “patch” and “field” cells. This refinement allows p16 methylation effects to be represented as speeding transitions of cells from the patch state to the clonally expanding field state. Given these assumptions, removing arsenic might greatly reduce the number of nonsmall cell lung cancer cells (NSCLCs) produced in smokers, by up to two‐thirds, depending on the fraction (between 0 and 1) of the smoking‐induced increase in the patch‐to‐field transition rate prevented if arsenic were removed. At present, this fraction is unknown (and could be as low as zero), but the possibility that it could be high (close to 1) cannot be ruled out without further data.     

固气相变蒸发热的计算

用固体的Einstein模型与Debye模型分别导出相应模型的固气相变的蒸发热和蒸发压公式，并对其做数值计算。结果表明，蒸发热与温度之间近似呈线性关系,之与工程上经验近似是一致的。     

The fusion of culture and science: Challenges and controversies of cultural competency and evidence-based practice with an African American family advocacy network

This paper identifies interrelationships between evidence-based practice (EBP), radical structuralism, and culture, arguing that culturally-specific beliefs and norms should be integrated into evidence-based, cross-cultural partnerships within child and family service systems. A single case study of family advocate training in evidence-based practice is provided as an illustration of, and impetus for, the development of a format for use with community-based and ethnically-diverse parent/family advocates. The lessons learned from teaching evidence-based practice to a parent advocate in a particular child welfare service system are highlighted. The use of enhanced roles for social workers and indigenous social capital and resources, such as family advocates as allies, is recommended to help achieve a greater degree of accountability, cooperation, and core understanding in the use of EBP. By training racially-diverse foster parents as mental health advocates to work collaboratively with policymakers, community groups, and family participants, proponents of EBP will reach and benefit more diverse populations.