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161.
路崴崴 《白城师范学院学报》2010,(1):43-47
通过较为全面的观察及较为细致的分析鉴别,我们最终确定“V一下”的结构语义主要有二:一是动作的具体数量;二是动作的少量。其语用功能为“减小对对方的强加”。 相似文献
162.
地震灾害发生后,灾区学校教师除了继续扮演好教书育人和学生管理等常规角色之外,还要做好学生的心理疏导工作,成为学生的心理调节者和心理医生,抚慰学生受伤的心灵和灾害带来的冲击、缓解因地震及一系列次生事件带来的情感的、心理的压力。灾区学校教师肩负着如此重要的任务,那么教师自身因地震灾害而带来的心理冲击和精神压力首先应该得到缓解和释放,然后才能在日常教学和学生管理中扮演好自己的角色。笔者通过研究发现,地震灾后学校教师存在着大量的心理社会方面的需求,存在着巨大的精神压力问题。笔者试图探讨通过学校社会工作服务来减轻教师的精神紧张和心理压力,从而达到提升教师精神健康的目的。 相似文献
163.
We propose model-free measures for Granger causality in mean between random variables. Unlike the existing measures, ours are able to detect and quantify nonlinear causal effects. The new measures are based on nonparametric regressions and defined as logarithmic functions of restricted and unrestricted mean square forecast errors. They are easily and consistently estimated by replacing the unknown mean square forecast errors by their nonparametric kernel estimates. We derive the asymptotic normality of nonparametric estimator of causality measures, which we use to build tests for their statistical significance. We establish the validity of smoothed local bootstrap that one can use in finite sample settings to perform statistical tests. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the proposed test has good finite sample size and power properties for a variety of data-generating processes and different sample sizes. Finally, the empirical importance of measuring nonlinear causality in mean is also illustrated. We quantify the degree of nonlinear predictability of equity risk premium using variance risk premium. Our empirical results show that the variance risk premium is a very good predictor of risk premium at horizons less than 6 months. We also find that there is a high degree of predictability at the 1-month horizon, that can be attributed to a nonlinear causal effect. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. 相似文献
164.
不应单纯将暑期社会实践当作一项思想政治教育活动,而应将之同时作为实践教学的重要环节和学生实践能力培养的重要举措。可以开展专题调研、挂职锻炼、管理咨询等与专业能力密切相关的多样化的实践形式。为保证实践效果,需实现暑期实践活动的课程化、机制化和基地化。 相似文献
165.
从理论上剖析Beta系数跨期时变、时间要素设定差异对系统性风险度量及公司估值结果的影响,并以2005年1月1日至2014年12月31日为样本周期,以有色、钢铁、石化、房地产、银行等5个周期性行业板块收益率及市场平均收益率的周数据和月数据为研究样本,对理论分析结论进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)时间要素设定差异会显著影响Beta系数稳定性;(2)时间要素设定差异对系统性风险度量及公司估值结果影响显著;(3)审慎设定时间要素,有利于提高Beta系数稳定性,同时降低系统性风险度量及公司估值误差。其中,“5~10年”是更为可取的Beta系数估计时段,并应优先选择以“周”为单位的收益率度量时限,其次是以“月”为单位。 相似文献
166.
Mahmoud Torabi 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2012,142(1):358-365
The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics publishes monthly unemployment rate estimates for its 50 states, the District of Columbia, and all counties, under Current Population Survey. However, the unemployment rate estimates for some states are unreliable due to low sample sizes in these states. Datta et al. (1999) proposed a hierarchical Bayes (HB) method using a time series generalization of a widely used cross-sectional model in small-area estimation. However, the geographical variation is also likely to be important. To have an efficient model, a comprehensive mixed normal model that accounts for the spatial and temporal effects is considered. A HB approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo is used for the analysis of the U.S. state-level unemployment rate estimates for January 2004-December 2007. The sensitivity of such type of analysis to prior assumptions in the Gaussian context is also studied. 相似文献
167.
Fukang Zhu 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2012,142(4):826-839
Zero inflation means that the proportion of 0's of a model is greater than the proportion of 0's of the corresponding Poisson model, which is a common phenomenon in count data. To model the zero-inflated characteristic of time series of counts, we propose zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial INGARCH models, which are useful and flexible generalizations of the Poisson and negative binomial INGARCH models, respectively. The stationarity conditions and the autocorrelation function are given. Based on the EM algorithm, the estimating procedure is simple and easy to be implemented. A simulation study shows that the estimation method is accurate and reliable as long as the sample size is reasonably large. A real data example leads to superior performance of the proposed models compared with other competitive models in the literature. 相似文献
168.
Consistency and asymptotic normality of quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLEs) for the fractionally integrated asymmetric power ARCH (FIAPARCH) process are proved. The moment conditions are assumed only for standardized errors. We show the properties for a wide range of QMLEs including Gaussian QMLE. 相似文献
169.
Network research focuses on patterns of stable relationships, where stability represents the unfolding of social processes over long time frames. We argue that social interactions exhibit important regularities in different time frames (short and long term), reflecting distinct social processes. We illustrate the value of this distinction through a comparative case study of technology-mediated communication, within two project teams in a digital marketing agency. We examine how the embedding of interpersonal interactions in processes of reciprocity and closure over different time horizons enables the emergence of cohesion in the face of constant compositional changes. We propose that the time frames in which stable patterns of interactions develop are the key to understanding the nature of the underlying social processes with short-term patterns of closure and reciprocity representing adaptation to change while longer term patterns indicate cohesion. Our results are supportive of this argument and show that the two teams exhibit the same regularities in interactions but across different time horizons. We discuss the implication of our findings and argue that distinguishing between short- and long-term stability of social networks offers a novel and promising avenue for network research. 相似文献
170.
陈爱香 《成都理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2013,(6)
20世纪90年代初期苏联解体,社会急剧转型,导致了人们的价值观念和思维方式的巨大变化,并深刻地影响了文学的发展进程。这一时期,文学中的“苏联”叙事主要呈现出政治祛魅的特征:褪去神圣光环的十月革命、正义性遭受质疑的卫国战争、被消解的乌托邦神话体制等在文学中得以书写。作家通过这种陌生化的手法诉说历史之痛,解构苏联官方话语的宏大叙事。 相似文献