家庭式迁移女性农民工劳动供给行为研究

随着城市化的不断推进,家庭式迁移已经成为农民工流动的重要模式。家庭式迁移的女性农民工需要同时扮演雇佣劳动者和家务主要承担者的双重角色,这种迁移模式对女性的劳动供给行为会造成重大的影响。利用浙江省农民工的调查数据,试图考察家庭式迁移女性农民工劳动供给的影响因素。分析结果表明:工作经验、培训经历、本地生活时间、工资对女性农民工的劳动供给具有显著影响;家庭结构的影响不显著,但子女或老人随迁会显著降低女性的劳动参与率和工作时间;分位数回归结果表明,各因素对女性工作时间不同分位数上的影响具有明显变化。     

Decomposing the predictive performance of the moving average trading rule of technical analysis: the contribution of linear and non-linear dependencies in stock returns

The main purpose of this work is to decompose the predictive performance of the moving average (MA) trading rule and find out the portion that could be attributed to the possible exploitation of linear and non-linear dependencies in stock returns. Data from the General Index of the Athens Stock Exchange, from the Standard and Poor-500 Index of the New York Stock Exchange and from the Austrian Traded Index of the Vienna Stock Exchange are filtered by linear filters so as the resulting simulated ‘returns’ exhibit no serial correlation. Applying MA trading rules to both the original and the simulated indices and using a new statistical testing procedure that takes into account the sensitivity of the performance of the trading rule as a function of the length of the MA it is found that the predictive performance of the trading rule is clearly weakened when applied to the simulated indices indicating that a substantial part of the rule's predictive performance is due to the exploitation of linear dependencies in stock returns. This weakening is uneven; in general the shorter the MA length the more pronounced the attenuation.     

Three-part model for fractional response variables with application to Chinese household health insurance coverage

A survey on health insurance was conducted in July and August of 2011 in three major cities in China. In this study, we analyze the household coverage rate, which is an important index of the quality of health insurance. The coverage rate is restricted to the unit interval [0, 1], and it may differ from other rate data in that the “two corners” are nonzero. That is, there are nonzero probabilities of zero and full coverage. Such data may also be encountered in economics, finance, medicine, and many other areas. The existing approaches may not be able to properly accommodate such data. In this study, we develop a three-part model that properly describes fractional response variables with non-ignorable zeros and ones. We investigate estimation and inference under two proportional constraints on the regression parameters. Such constraints may lead to more lucid interpretations and fewer unknown parameters and hence more accurate estimation. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of constrained and unconstrained models and show that estimation under constraint can be more efficient. The analysis of household health insurance coverage data suggests that household size, income, expense, and presence of chronic disease are associated with insurance coverage.     

精算思想的演进与精算理论发展综述

精算是保险发展的基础,是保险经营的技术支持。精算在国外有四百年的发展历史,引入中国只有二十年。要使精算技术在中国得到发展创新并为社会需要服务,必须了解精算思想产生的历史背景,厘清精算理论发展的脉络,真正把握精算思想的实质。基于此,介绍了精算各发展时期的主要代表人物及其学术思想,阐述精算技术对各时期保险发展的影响,同时对精算学与复利理论、数学、统计学、计算技术、金融经济学交叉融合的历史过程进行了分析述评。     

Pseudo New Modified Latin Square (NML m (m)) Type PBIB Designs

A New Modified Latin square [NML _i (m)] association scheme with i constraints for v = m ² treatments was introduced by Garg (2008 Garg , D. K. ( 2008 ). New modified Latin square (NMLi) type PBIB designs . J. Math. Syst. Sci. 1 ( 4 ): 83 – 89 . [Google Scholar]). In this article, a new association scheme known as Pseudo New Modified Latin square [Pseudo NML _m (m)] type association scheme is defined. The parameters of Pseudo NML _m (m) association scheme turned out to be parameters of NML _i (m) association scheme by taking i = m in NML _i (m) association scheme. The Pseudo NML _m (m) association scheme will be the usual NML _m (m) association scheme when m is a prime or a prime power. The PBIB designs following Pseudo NML _m (m) association scheme will be called the Pseudo NML _m (m) type PBIB designs. Analysis of Pseudo NML _m (m) designs along with a construction method of these designs is also given in this article.     

An exact test for nbue class of survival functions

Let F(x) be a life distribution. An exact test is given for testing H₀ F is exponential, versusH₁Fε NBUE (NWUE); along with a table of critical values for n=5(l)80, and n=80(5)65. An asymptotic test is made available for large values of n, where the standardized normal table can be used for testing.     

Predicting Insurance Losses Under Cross-Classification: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches

Various mathematical and statistical models for estimation of automobile insurance pricing are reviewed. The methods are compared on their predictive ability based on two sets of automobile insurance data for two different states collected over two different periods. The issue of model complexity versus data availability is resolved through a comparison of the accuracy of prediction. The models reviewed range from the use of simple cell means to various multiplicative-additive schemes to the empirical-Bayes approach. The empirical-Bayes approach, with prediction based on both model-based and individual cell estimates, seems to yield the best forecast.     

Measuring the Influence of Unemployment Insurance on Unemployment Experiences

This article investigates the comprehensive effects of unemployment insurance (UI) policies on the amount of time and unemployment that individuals report between jobs. The econometric model jointly determines the effects of UI on the lengths of nonemployment spells, the classification of these spells as unemployment, and the likelihood of collecting program benefits. The model carefully attempts to isolate variation in UI benefits attributable to differences in generosity across programs to avoid biases in estimating policy effects induced by other contaminating sources of benefit variation. Using data on men from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, the empirical results find (a) UI recipients typically experience longer spells between jobs, at least up to the exhaustion of UI benefits, and report substantially larger fractions of these spells as unemployment; (b) weekly benefit amounts exert no significant influence on the likelihood of UI recipiency, on the length of spells between jobs, or on the fraction of these spells classified as unemployment; and (c) increases in weeks of UI eligibility raise the likelihood of UI collection and lengthen the number of weeks of unemployment between jobs by inducing long spells to become longer and not by altering short-duration behavior.     

The Quality Adjusted Price Index in the Pure Characteristics Demand Model

This paper computes a quality adjusted price index for the personal computer CPU from 1996 to 2000. The index is based on the pure characteristics demand model. I first compute the quality adjusted price index for the whole market, and show that it is very comparable with the hedonic price index but more sensitive to changes in product quality. Two types of the hedonic index are considered. One is the dummy variable index and the other is the formulation in Pakes (2003). When I group consumers by their willingness to pay for attribute improvement, the index shows consumer groups are differently affected by their product choices.     

梁漱溟生命化儒学对其乡村建设思想的影响

人生态度的不同决定了中国文化与西方文化有着不同的前途。新中国的嫩芽必由旧中国的老根——乡村长出。乡建时期较之“五四”时期梁漱溟的理论具有更浓厚的儒学色彩,但并未改其生命哲学特质,并在多方面影响着乡村建设思想:对生命主体性的认识使其注重农民自觉;有机整体思想使其反对阶级斗争;中庸之道导致其思想的第三条道路特色;相对主义导向政治的改良主义。