Bayesian Inference for Assessing Effects of Email Marketing Campaigns

Email marketing has been an increasingly important tool for today’s businesses. In this article, we propose a counting-process-based Bayesian method for quantifying the effectiveness of email marketing campaigns in conjunction with customer characteristics. Our model explicitly addresses the seasonality of data, accounts for the impact of customer characteristics on their purchasing behavior, and evaluates effects of email offers as well as their interactions with customer characteristics. Using the proposed method, together with a propensity-score-based unit-matching technique for alleviating potential confounding, we analyze a large email marketing dataset of an online ticket marketplace to evaluate the short- and long-term effectiveness of their email campaigns. It is shown that email offers can increase customer purchase rate both immediately and during a longer term. Customers’ characteristics such as length of shopping history, purchase recency, average ticket price, average ticket count, and number of genres purchased also affect customers’ purchase rate. A strong positive interaction is uncovered between email offer and purchase recency, suggesting that customers who have been inactive recently are more likely to take advantage of promotional offers. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

大学生心理压力的应对方式与教育对策

压力是当代大学生面临的一个日益突出的问题.从分析大学生的主要心理压力源和压力应对方式入手,探讨了影响大学生应对方式的主要因素,在此基础上提出,大学生应该在教育引导下,建立积极健康的人格,掌握一定的压力管理技能,以更加成熟的方式应对人生的挑战.     

四川高校教职工心理压力现状的调查研究

目的:了解四川省高校教职工心理压力现状。调查对象:四川7所高校682名教职工的心理压力情况。调查结果:1)感受到中重度心理压力的教职工占75.9%,感到压力对自己目前的生活产生了中重度影响的教职工占63.7%,仅有35.3%的教职工应对压力的方式是基本有效的;2)教职工的压力源主要来自工作方面,压力源对30~45岁的中等资历教职工群体,离婚、再婚等特殊困难教职工群体的影响程度较大;3)部分教职工的压力认知还存在偏差,多数教职工的压力应对方式还不够完善。学校可通过针对不同群体的心理压力实际情况相应改善政策、普及心理压力知识、构建组织文化等途径来缓解教职工的心理压力。     

Selecting the best normal population better than a standard under unequal variances

In this article we consider a problem of selecting the best normal population that is better than a standard when the variances are unequal. Single-stage selection procedures are proposed when the variances are known. Wilcox (1984) and Taneja and Dudewicz (1992) proposed two-stage selection procedures when the variances are unknown. In addition to these procedures, we propose a two-stage selection procedure based on the method of Lam (1988). Comparisons are made between these selection procedures in terms of the sample sizes.     

A matrix variance inequality

In the course of solving a variational problem Chernoff (Ann. Probab. 9 (1981) 533) obtained what appears to be a specialized inequality for a variance, namely, that for a standard normal variable X, Var[g(X)]E[g^′(X)]². However, both the simplicity and usefulness of the inequality has generated a plethora of extensions, as well as alternative proofs. All previous papers have focused on a single function. We provide here an inequality for the covariance matrix of k functions, which leads to a matrix inequality in the sense of Loewner.     

华夏饮食心态与饮食文化

华夏人具有求美品味、重养尚补、助兴寄情等伙食心态，构成了独具一格的饮食观，它对华夏饮食文化的发达及其特色的形成，都起着重要作用。华夏饮食文化是一种以品味为核心、以养生为目的、以寄情为最高境界的文化     

一种对拉式挡土结构的受力计算研究

本文对一种新型的轻型挡土结构－对拉式挡土结构的受力计算进行了研究，提出了在不同荷载情况下的土压力计算，并提出了拉杆受力计算方法。通过与其它计算方法的比较，解决了挡土结构顶部土压力出现负值的问题，证明了该方法是可行的。     

论民族高校文科学报“讲政治”

民族高校文科学报“讲政治”是由其意识形态性质决定的；民族高校文科学报“讲政治”有客观标准可循；民族高校文科学报“讲政治”的关键是提高编辑的政治业务素质     

和谐社会的健康型组织建设

和谐社会建设的对象主要涉及的是人,处理好人与人、人与组织、人与社会和人与自然的关系尤为重要.把关心民众的生理、心理健康作为稳定和谐的评价指标,不断调整执政者的决策行为,才能保证经济增长与社会进步的和谐统一.本文作者认为,可以把健康型组织(Healthy Organization)作为和谐社会构建的评价标准,从社会心理学、组织行为学和人力资源管理的角度,探索我国社会经济转型时期和谐社会建设的影响机制和标准度量问题.作者提出,健康型组织包括正常的心理状态、成功的胜任特征和创新的组织文化三方面.近年来,我国经济建设取得了举世瞩目的高速发展,但是处理好经济发展和社会和谐的关系至关重要,系统地探索我国社会经济转型时期健康型组织建设的影响机制,不仅利于和谐社会的建设,而且有助于管理科学理论自身的知识创新.为此,和谐社会的健康型组织建设可以从如下六方面来开展研究:各类健康型组织的心理行为的健康标准体系;危机事件的社会心理行为预警系统;转型时期劳工冲突的心理行为机制;企业的员工心理援助和压力管理研究;领导者执政能力模型及开发模式研究;健康型组织文化的形成机制研究.最后,本文提出了实施健康型组织建设的几点建议.     

论我国刑法中善与恶的偏重及均衡发展

刑法的善表现为对自由的保障和对秩序的保护,刑法的恶表现为对刑罚权的限制和对自由、财产、资格和生命的限制或剥夺。在刑事法治视阈中,刑法的善与恶及其结合具有均衡性,而我国刑法中的善与恶及其结合却表现出了偏重性。因而,实行我国刑法的善、恶以及善与恶结合的均衡性,对构建刑事法治具有重要意义。