艾布·优素福公共财政思想研究

受熊彼特大缺陷理论的影响,间断论断在许多文献均有反映,这一论点认为,圣·托马斯·阿奎那之前的五百年没有任何关涉经济及其他知识的追求。事实上,伊斯兰历史上的黄金时期在文化科学上的成就深刻影响了欧洲文艺复兴,对经济思想的探索也有诸多精辟之处,中世纪早期著名的伊斯兰经院哲学家艾布·优素福对经济议题的精辟论述即为突出的代表之一。     

What to Learn from Near Misses: An Inductive Learning Approach to Credit Risk Assessment

This paper presents a new dimension of inductive learning for credit risk analysis based on the specific impact of Type I and Type II credit errors on the accuracy of the learning process. A Dynamic Updating Process is proposed to refine the credit granting decision over time and therefore improve the accuracy of the learning process. The new dimension is tested on credit files of small Belgian businesses. Results indicate an improvement of the learning process in terms of predictive accuracy, stability, and conceptual validity of the final decision tree.     

Adaptive Percolation Using Subjective Likelihoods

A phenomenon that I call “adaptive percolation” commonly arises in biology, business, economics, defense, finance, manufacturing, and the social sciences. Here one wishes to select a handful of entities from a large pool of entities via a process of screening through a hierarchy of sieves. The process is not unlike the percolation of a liquid through a porous medium. The probability model developed here is based on a nested and adaptive Bayesian approach that results in the product of beta-binomial distributions with common parameters. The common parameters happen to be the observed data. I call this the percolated beta-binomial distribution . The model turns out to be a slight generalization of the probabilistic model used in percolation theory. The generalization is a consequence of using a subjectively specified likelihood function to construct a probability model. The notion of using likelihoods for constructing probability models is not a part of the conventional toolkit of applied probabilists. To the best of my knowledge, a use of the product of beta-binomial distributions as a probability model for Bernoulli trials appears to be new. The development of the material of this article is illustrated via data from the 2009 astronaut selection program, which motivated this work.     

A Nonparametric Test of the Predictive Regression Model

This article considers testing the significance of a regressor with a near unit root in a predictive regression model. The procedures discussed in this article are nonparametric, so one can test the significance of a regressor without specifying a functional form. The results are used to test the null hypothesis that the entire function takes the value of zero. We show that the standardized test has a normal distribution regardless of whether there is a near unit root in the regressor. This is in contrast to tests based on linear regression for this model where tests have a nonstandard limiting distribution that depends on nuisance parameters. Our results have practical implications in testing the significance of a regressor since there is no need to conduct pretests for a unit root in the regressor and the same procedure can be used if the regressor has a unit root or not. A Monte Carlo experiment explores the performance of the test for various levels of persistence of the regressors and for various linear and nonlinear alternatives. The test has superior performance against certain nonlinear alternatives. An application of the test applied to stock returns shows how the test can improve inference about predictability.     

国际金融中心法制环境建设的政策与法律措施——以中国金融安全保障为视角

中国建立国际金融中心以及改善法制环境的目的在于取得国际金融监管体系变革中的话语权,以保障国家的金融安全与经济的可持续发展。这一战略目标通过何种路径得以实现是亟需解决的理论问题。为此,有必要借鉴国际金融法律环境与监管制度的理论,结合中国现状提出有针对性的政策与立法建议。本文通过考察"功能理论"与"支配理论"的内涵及其应用,结合中国特殊的经济地位,认为"功能理论"可为构建完备的金融监管体制与国际合作机制提供可行、合理的结构图;"支配理论"可为中国取得国际金融监管事务的话语权、保障金融安全、完善法制环境提供较为全面的路线图。在此基础上,本文就中国获得相关领域的话语权提出了具体的政策与立法建议。     

浅议中小企业应收账款管理问题

应收账款是企业流动资金的重要组成部分,也是企业收入中不确定的部分。如果企业应收账款积累过大且不能及时收回就会影响资金的周转和使用,会造成企业的现金流危机,尤其对于融资能力较弱的中小企业而言,应收账款能否及时收回更是企业生存和发展的关键。本文主要分析我国中小企业应收账款的现状及问题,并针对这些问题给出相应的解决措施。     

Mastering ‘Lady Credit’

This article politicizes current understandings of financial crises. It is argued that financial discourse, and specifically the discourse that locates financial crises in the realm of madness and delusion, is founded upon a distinctively masculine conception of agency. This argument is made by looking at early eighteenth-century debates concerning the emergence of credit and paper money. The article examines Daniel Defoe's satirical personification, Lady Credit. Lady Credit embodies all the irrational, inconstant and effeminate aspects that had to be purged from financial discourse before it was able to gain respectability as a rational, disinterested and scientific sphere of action. Lady Credit is not unlike ancient goddess, Fortuna, who ruled capriciously over the affairs of men. The financial discourse under examination implies that it is in times of crisis that financial man loses self-control and is prevented from seeing economic reality by the delusions that Lady Credit generates in him. Through the virile mastering of Lady Credit, it is implied, the smooth and neutral workings of the financial sphere are guaranteed. The article contends that this inherently gendered manner of understanding financial crises informs debates on financial crisis today, as can be exemplified by the public discussion on the recent crisis in Asia.     

中国民间金融的法律监管问题

民间金融作为一种非正规的金融形式对中国经济的发展贡献突出,但由于对民间金融一直缺乏专门的法律法规监管,民间金融极易产生巨大风险,影响金融市场的安全与稳定.2011年温州民间金融危机的爆发,使民间金融的监管问题再一次引起了社会各方的关注.民间金融法律监管的完善应遵循适度干预原则、经济安全原则、平衡协调原则;采取赋予民间金融合法地位,建立健全市场准入机制与市场退出机制,对民间金融实行分类监管等措施.     

中国商业银行发展碳金融的风险及防范措施

[摘 要]商业银行应该发展碳金融,但其发展过程中存在较多风险,针对这些风险,可以采取以下几条措施防范: 建立并完善法律体系,规避法律风险;制定稳定的政策制度,降低政策风险;构建完善的内控体系,管理和控制经营风险;多渠道培养专业人才,解决人才风险;建立并健全的碳金融市场,减少市场环境风险。     

我国县域金融竞争力指标的设计与提升路径的研究——以连云港四县为样本的分析

县域金融作为推动县域经济发展的核心力量之一,其金融竞争力已成为县域金融发展的主要标志与目标。准确的界定金融竞争力内涵,科学的设计评价指标,对于明确一个县级地方的金融发展目标和措施至关重要。本文以区域金融竞争为理论基础,进一步探讨县域金融竞争力的基本内涵与外延,构建评价县域金融竞争力的指标体系,并以连云港四个典型县为分析样本,比较县金融竞争力的差距,并提出发展的导向建议,为全国县域经济与金融的耦合协同发展提供参考性蓝本。