常州市育龄人群生育意愿及影响因素

基于调查研究数据,对常州市育龄人群的理想子女数、性别偏好和预期初育年龄进行了定量分析,并对不同特征人群的理想子女数进行对比研究。结果表明,常州市育龄人群不存在明显的生育性别偏好,少生晚生已成为其自觉自愿的选择。     

中美贸易摩擦、全球价值链分工与福利效应

基于全球价值链分工,本文利用2018年中美贸易摩擦加征关税清单、世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)和中美家庭消费支出调查等数据,使用Taylor一阶展开法和考虑消费异质性的Creedy方法测算了中美贸易摩擦给全球价值链参与者带来的福利效应。研究发现:第一,无论基于Taylor一阶展开法还是Creedy方法,本轮贸易摩擦给中美两国自身带来的福利损失最大,且美国受损程度明显高于中国;第二,全球价值链上加拿大、墨西哥等北美自由贸易区(NAFTA)成员以及日本、德国、英国等经济体受中美贸易摩擦影响的福利损失较大;第三,国别责任分解表明中美福利损失主要来源于自身加税行为,而其他绝大多数经济体的损失主要由美国加税引致;第四,收入分配方面,中美贸易摩擦引致的中国福利损失是累退性的,而美国福利受损程度与收入呈现非线性的“倒U型”关系,表明中美贸易摩擦不利于收入分配格局的改善。全球价值链各参与者应秉持人类命运共同体理念,积极主动维护多边贸易规则和国际治理秩序。     

Professional vitality and career success: Mediation,age and outcomes

We propose a model that explains the complex phenomenon of successful career at work, and focuses on the antecedents of professional vitality at the workplace. The model sheds light on the role of professional vitality as an essential ingredient for successful careers. Using a survey design, we tested our model with a sample of 545 managers and professionals. The findings suggest effects of career attitudes on career outcomes, mediated by professional vitality. The relationship between professional vitality and age at work environment forms an inverse U shape curve, peaking at age of fifties, an optimistic note for the global aging workforce.     

论毛泽东对价值规律认识的演变

毛泽东对价值规律的态度和认识经历了一个演变过程。在新民主主义革命时期,他在指导根据地经济建设的时候自觉遵循价值规律;在社会主义改造完成以后,因为无视价值规律,他发动了大跃进和人民公社化运动,但通过人民公社化运动的惨痛教训,他又认识到价值规律不可违背;在国民经济得到恢复以后,他一方面承认价值规律存在的历史必然性,但在另一方面又企图超越价值规律。     

加入WTO后的中国经济及日本的对策

虽然东亚产业分布正从"一极集中"到"多极分散",中国东部沿海也在迅速崛起,但笔者依然反对"中国威胁论",认为中国实行的是"非完全、彻底的"市场化,且沿海地区的迅速发展不能代替说明整个中国的发展。与此同时,加入WTO之后会对中国经济和世界经济产生深远的影响,并将成为日本及其国民真正迈向国际化的契机。日本要想有效地利用好中国的优势,一方面应与中国地方政府合作,支持本地中小企业的对外发展,另一方面必须大力推进内部国际化。     

Age stratification at work: Trends in occupational age segregation in the United States, 1950–2000

This paper adjudicates between competing accounts of recent trends in the amount and patterning of occupational age segregation. These accounts rely on narratives about: (1) the decline of age-graded mobility, (2) the rise of occupational volatility, and (3) the existence of dual labor markets, in particular increasingly bimodal age distributions in low-skill occupations. Using new log-multiplicative models and related methods, the findings show that overall age segregation declined between 1950 and 1990, which is consistent with the decline of age-graded mobility. Among women, though not among men, the findings show increasingly bimodal age distributions in particular low-skill occupations, which is consistent with a dual labor market. Starting in 1990, age segregation increased among men and may have increased among women, which is consistent with the occupational volatility narrative.     

A theory of age exclusion through closure: ‘Chronological age’ to ‘clinical need’

In an approach, I term ‘age exclusion through closure,’ I describe the exclusion of older people, from the workforce, and from hospital-based continuing care in Britain. Nineteenth century socioeconomic changes—the introduction of workplace technology, social surveys, the New Poor Law, and workhouse isolation, culminated in workforce exclusion on the grounds of chronological age. In the 20th century, the Poor Law ‘therapy’/‘succour’ divide, was recast in the Welfare State ‘health’/‘social care’ divide. Socioeconomic changes—the rising cost of health care, demographic change, the development of geriatric medicine, and economic restructuring, have served to allocatively ration ‘continuing care’ at this interface through the criteria of ‘clinical need.’ To conclude, age has become forged to clinical need, to become a formidable force of exclusion and exploitation perpetuating Poor Law closure between those ‘able’ and ‘unable’ to work, and creating a consequent ‘process of subordination’ within Welfare State capitalism.     

物流管理在现代会展业的应用分析

我国经济的持续快速发展和经济全球化趋势为我国会展业发展提供了难得的机遇,本文在对会展物流的定义、特征和会展物流系统的内容阐述之后,针对我国会展物流业的现状,提出了发展现代会展物流的对策措施。     

哈尔滨市人口分布问题研究

从整个市域来看,哈尔滨市人口分布具有不平衡性,为圈层结构。从城乡人口分布来看,市区与市辖市县之间形成了二元结构。在城镇规模结构体系上,表现为不够协调。哈尔滨市的人口分布对在土地利用效益、人居环境和城市的区域影响力等方面都构成了一定影响,因此,改善人口分布状态是哈尔滨市未来人口发展中必须着重解决的问题。     

多维最大值吸引场中分布函数的尾等价问题

本文将[3」中对一维情况的分布函数的尾等价定义推广到多维情况,得到两个多维尾等价的分布函数属于同一最大值吸引场的结论。