惆怅的献祭--《纯真年代》中阿切尔的伦理选择及动因诠释

以二十世纪初的纽约上流社会为伦理语境，追溯《纯真年代》中男主人公纽兰·阿切尔的情感成长历程。通过对阿切尔与埃伦七次约会的回顾，探析阿切尔在面临婚外爱情时是怎样以及为何最终做出回归家庭这一伦理选择的。阿切尔对其婚姻伦理身份的回归是惆怅的，对家庭伦理秩序的重建是悲情的，这是对老纽约社会道德秩序的一份惆怅的献祭。     

Strategic pricing with reference effects in a competitive supply chain

The reference-price effect refers to the demand deviation caused by consumers’ perceived losses or gains when the current market price of a product differs from a cognitive benchmark (known as a reference price) formed by the customers based on past prices. The impact of such a reference effect on the dynamic pricing policy of a monopolist has been widely studied in the literature. However, despite the importance of the topic due to the growing transparency of price information in the Internet era, its relevance in the context of a distribution channel has never been explored. In this study, we consider a supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer in a bilateral monopoly setting. The two channel members independently choose their pricing strategies to optimize their own benefits in the presence of consumers’ reference-price effects. Based on a deterministic demand function, we derive the equilibrium prices and analyze the resulting profit sensitivity with respect to various factors that crucially shape the reference effects. We conclude that both the centralized and decentralized channels should want consumers to have a higher initial reference price, be more sensitive to the reference-price effect, and be more loyal to their product.     

翟理斯英译《聊斋志异》的道德和诗学取向

由于受译者所处的维多利亚时代道德风尚的影响，翟理斯在其英译《聊斋志异》中对原文中不符合清教道德规范的性爱描写进行了删除或改写。另外，因为19世纪下半叶英国小说总体摈弃了作者或叙述者在文本中做“插入性评论”的叙事手法，翟理斯对原作故事末尾处的作者评论性文字“异史氏曰”部分全部删除。译者的这种翻译处理，源于当时英国小说的兴盛和自足。     

Detecting Variance Change-Points for Blocked Time Series and Dependent Panel Data

This article proposes a class of weighted differences of averages (WDA) statistics to test and estimate possible change-points in variance for time series with weakly dependent blocks and dependent panel data without specific distributional assumptions. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics for testing the existence of a single variance change-point under the null and local alternatives. We also study the consistency of the change-point estimator. Within the proposed class of the WDA test statistics, a standardized WDA test is shown to have the best consistency rate and is recommended for practical use. An iterative binary searching procedure is suggested for estimating the locations of possible multiple change-points in variance, whose consistency is also established. Simulation studies are conducted to compare detection power and number of wrong rejections of the proposed procedure to that of a cumulative sum (CUSUM) based test and a likelihood ratio-based test. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a stock index dataset and an unemployment rate dataset. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

本雅明眼中机械复制时代的文艺审美特征

20世纪初是继19世纪资本主义高速发展后西方文艺从古典向现代递变的时期，此期的文艺作品生产者、文艺作品以及文艺作品接受者较前代有了极大的转变。本雅明目睹了这种变化，并对各种文艺现象进行研究，提出了此期文艺审美的特征。     

明代中国棉桑及其地理分布

棉桑作为明代的主要经济作物，在农业发展中的地位不可忽视。其中棉花种植十分普及，并有江花、北花和浙花三大种系，并以此形成了三大植棉区；桑的分布则是南长北衰，尤其是随着明中后期桑蚕业的发展主要分布在江南地区。文章旨在通过探讨这两大经济作物的分布，来从侧面了解其对明代农业及社会经济的影响。     

Replacement policies for age and working numbers with random life cycle

It has been modeled for several replacement policies in literatures that the whole life cycle or operating interval of an operating unit should be finite rather than infinite as is done with the traditional method. However, it is more natural to consider the case in which the finite life cycle is a fluctuated parameter that could be used to estimate replacement times, which will be taken up in this article. For this, we first formulate a general model in which the unit is replaced at random age U, random time Y for the first working number, random life cycle S, or at failure X, whichever occurs first. The following models included in the general model, such that replacement done at age T when variable U is a degenerate distribution, and replacement done at working numbers N summed by number N of variable Y, are optimized. We obtain the total expected cost until replacement and the expected replacement cost rate for each model. Optimal age T, working number N, and a pair of (T, N) are discussed analytically and computed numerically.     

未来人口年龄结构变动对住宅需求的影响

不同年龄阶段的消费群体具有不同的需求特征,人口因素直接影响着住宅产品的市场定位和需求结构。本文按人口年龄因素进行了住宅市场细分,分析了未来人口年龄结构变动对住宅市场需求结构的影响。     

An Entropy‐Based Methodology for Valuation of Demand Uncertainty Reduction

We propose a distribution‐free entropy‐based methodology to calculate the expected value of an uncertainty reduction effort and present our results within the context of reducing demand uncertainty. In contrast to existing techniques, the methodology does not require a priori assumptions regarding the underlying demand distribution, does not require sampled observations to be the mechanism by which uncertainty is reduced, and provides an expectation of information value as opposed to an upper bound. In our methodology, a decision maker uses his existing knowledge combined with the maximum entropy principle to model both his present and potential future states of uncertainty as probability densities over all possible demand distributions. Modeling uncertainty in this way provides for a theoretically justified and intuitively satisfying method of valuing an uncertainty reduction effort without knowing the information to be revealed. We demonstrate the methodology's use in three different settings: (i) a newsvendor valuing knowledge of expected demand, (ii) a short life cycle product supply manager considering the adoption of a quick response strategy, and (iii) a revenue manager making a pricing decision with limited knowledge of the market potential for his product.     

潮阳新坡遗址的发掘及其意义

对2009年调查勘探的潮阳新坡遗址及发掘情况做了全面介绍;将此次勘察的遗址、遗物配以真实图片进行详细的分析。新坡遗址的发现,将潮汕地区有人类居住、劳动的历史上溯到4000多年前,改写了潮汕历史,填补了汕头市新石器时代商周时期遗址的空白。