人口转变的经济增长效应研究新进展：一个综述

关于人口转变对于经济增长的效应研究由来已久,但是研究大多只考虑了人口数量和人口增长率对于经济增长的效应。近二十年来,许多经济学家在揭示“东亚奇迹”和中国经济腾飞等一系列经济现象的原因时。发现了人口年龄结构对于经济增长的重要贡献,并提出了“人口红利”的概念以解释经济发展。本文将具体介绍近二十年来理论界对于人口转变影响经济增长的相关机制的研究以及经验分析。并对这些研究的政策含义和有待深入研究的问题作出简要评述。     

收入分配、技术进步与经济的持续增长——来自中国的经验

支撑中国经济近30年高增长的主要是要素投入而非技术进步,这种粗放型的增长方式以及这种方式下的经济增长都是不可持续的。中国经济发展正在进入"刘易斯转折区间",这可能为经济增长方式转变为主要依靠技术进步提供条件,也可能使经济进入均衡陷阱。技术进步本身有着内在的逻辑,它源于分工,而分工又具有自发演进的正反馈机制。建设"创新型国家"(或者说大范围的技术进步)难以依靠由政府动员全社会力量集中攻关的"举国体制"来实现,分工的深化才是技术进步,进而是经济持续增长的决定性因素。     

中国城乡发展动力结构调整的思考——收入分配视角的分析

近三十年来,中国经济实现了持续高速增长,但增长动力结构失衡。在投资、消费、净出口三大需求对国民经济发展的拉动中,消费率偏低是一个不争的事实。消费率,即消费需求在支出法国内生产总值中所占的比重,反映的是从长期考察的一个国家在其发展过程中所处的历史阶段,而不是短期内国家宏观和微观的经济运行情况。它的高低适中不能用宏观和微观经济运行情况来判定,而是要看其是否与国家或地方的经济发展方式和路径相适应。中国经济发展正处于消费率由低转高的历史阶段,中国消费率的上升是一个渐进的过程,需要从宏观上实现一系列的国民收入分配机理运行工程,即劳动收入的国家干预工程、要素收入的二次分配工程、扩大公共消费工程和加大财政转移支付工程。     

代际支持对老年人主观幸福感的影响--基于年龄组的差异性分析

本文从年龄组差异的角度分析了代际支持对老年人心理健康的影响。研究发现,在控制了客观健康状况等变量后,老年人的心理健康水平并非随着年龄增长呈现出下降趋势。其次,接受代际支持和给予代际支持都对老年人心理健康有着显著的促进作用。第三,对于不同年龄组来说,代际支持对老年人心理健康产生的效果既有共同点也存在着差异。相似之处在于充足的经济支持对65－74岁、75－84岁和85岁及以上这三个年龄组老人的心理健康都是有利的。然而,更突出的是这三个年龄组之间的相异点：对于65－74岁这一组别而言,老人与子女之间的经济交换最为频繁。这种经济上的互惠提升了老人的积极情绪、抑制了消极情绪的产生。就75－84岁的老年人来说,子女在日常照料的作用表现的十分显著。和子女共同居住、在生病时由子女照料的老人表现出更少的消极情绪。至于85岁以上的高龄老人,得到充足的情感支持对于提升主观幸福感的作用更为显著;最先和子女分享想法的老人有着更高的心理健康水平。因此就现实状况来看,当父母逐渐衰老,作为子女,应当更加关注对父母的日常照护和情感关怀。尤其是对于这些高龄老人,他们对子女的情感态度更为敏感;子女提供的充足的情感支持对其心理健康有着十分显著的促进作用。     

网络时代大学生思想政治教育的基本法则

随着信息技术的快速发展,网络以其不可抵挡的势头,将触角延伸到社会生活各个领域,也延伸到高等学校。大学生作为特殊的群体,网络正改变着他们的学习方式、思维方式和生活方式,影响他们的政治态度和价值取向等。网络的发展使思想政治教育工作的社会化、平等化以及立体性大大提高,但同时网络也造成部分大学生的网络道德失范,世界观和人生观被扭曲,心理健康受损害等负面情况。面对网络所带来的机遇与挑战,大学思想政治教育工作者应该从校园网络环境、思想政治教育者的网络素养、网络心理健康教育、网络使用规则等方面形成基本法则,全面推进网络无缝接入思想政治教育工作。     

Exact permutation inference for two sample repeated measures data

Experiments in which very few units are measured many times sometimes present particular difficulties. Interest often centers on simple location shifts between two treatment groups, but appropriate modeling of the error distribution can be challenging. For example, normality may be difficult to verify, or a single transformation stabilizing variance or improving normality for all units and all measurements may not exist. We propose an analysis of two sample repeated measures data based on the permutation distribution of units. This provides a distribution free alternative to standard analyses. The analysis includes testing, estimation and confidence intervals. By assuming a certain structure in the location shift model, the dimension of the problem is reduced by analyzing linear combinations of the marginal statistics. Recently proposed algorithms for computation of two sample permutation distributions, require only a few seconds for experiments having as many as 100 units and any number of repeated measures. The test has high asymptotic efficiency and good power with respect to tests based on the normal distribution. Since the computational burden is minimal, approximation of the permutation distribution is unnecessary.     

Risk-Reducing Legal Documents: Controlling Personal Health and Financial Resources

Every adult can eliminate the risk of losing control of personal health decisions and financial resources by having a last will and testament, health proxy, power of attorney, and living trust. Yet evidence suggests that less than a majority of adult Americans have these documents. We surveyed 900 adult Americans (25 plus years old) to determine what factors predict the possession of these risk-reducing documents. In total, 46% had a living will and testament, 32% a durable power of attorney, 30% a health proxy, and 18% a living trust. Events that prompt people with wealth to secure these documents, such as increasing age, getting married, having children, and experiencing a life-threatening event were the strongest predictors of having a will. These were also among the strongest predictors of having a health proxy, along with a personal history of being proactive, and a family history that fostered trust of attorneys. Affluence, age, and education were the strongest predictors of having a living trust, and the strongest correlate of having a durable power of attorney was having faced a life-threatening event, positive experiences with attorneys, and higher educational achievement.     

Girlz II women: Age‐grading,language change and stylistic variation

Informed by abstract models of language change or stability over time, we present a longitudinal study of two African American females, first interviewed as teenagers, and re‐recorded twenty years later. As teenagers, they used morpho‐syntactic features of AAVE voraciously. But as working adults, these women distance themselves from their teenage activities and social networks, and display a considerably reduced vernacular usage that accords with their articulated concern to get ahead. The diachronic interpretation that best characterizes their transformation is age‐grading rather than generational change, since change at the individual level is accompanied by stability at the community level. The picture is complicated by intermediate recordings showing that one of the speakers is a stylistic chameleon, capable since her teenage years of varying copula absence rates depending on addressee, topic, and projected persona. But the age‐grading interpretation of change at the individual level remains valid based on the evidence of her reduced use of habitual be2, and third singular present tense –s absence. The case highlights the importance of paying more attention to stylistic variation and including more than two time points in sociolinguistic studies of change in real and apparent time.     

前维京时代北欧与欧洲大陆的联系

考古学证据、历史语言学与人类学研究表明,由石器时代、铜器时代和铁器时代构成的前维京时代斯堪的纳维亚历史与欧洲大陆是密不可分的.     

Distribution of linear combination of exponential variates

The exact distribution of a linear combination of n independent negative exponential random variables, when the coefficients of the linear combination are distinct and positive quantities, is well-known. This paper extends the above result to the general case, namely when the coefficients are arbitrary real numbers, positive or negative, distinct or coincident.