`Sex-Equal' Stable Matchings

The paper defines a measure on the set of stable matchings in the marriage problem. This measure is based on the minimization of the envy difference between the sets of men and women, while preserving stability and selects stable matchings with the least conflict of interest between both groups of agents. The solution concept proposed is called Sex-equal Matching (SEM) and the paper also provides an algorithm to compute the set of SEM.     

Conditional interval estimation of the mean following rejection of a two sided test

The effect of rejecting a two-sided preliminary test of significance for the mean of a normal distribution upon subsequent interval estimation of the mean is examined. For the case where the variance is known, conditional confidence intervals may be shorter than unconditional intervals, in contrast to the one-sided preliminary test case examined by Meeks and D’Agostino (1983, The American Statistician, 7, 134-136) . For the case where the variance is unknown and must be estimated by the sample variance, it is shown that customary intervals do not offer uniformly greater or lesser coverage than the nominal level.     

女性人口文化程度对其婚育状况的影响探析

本文以1995年全国1％人口抽样调查资料为基础，对女性人口文化程度与其早婚状况、平均初婚年龄．以及女性初婚年龄与其平均活产子女数间的相关关系进行了深入的定量分析．     

炎黄时空初探

炎黄称谓最初可能为氏族中杰出的族长人物名字,进而成为部族集群之血缘和精神的宗主神,最终发展成为部族集群的称谓.炎黄早期诞生、发展、迁徒的空间,是今之渭水与泾水流域,这是可以得到文献与考古资料互证的.新石器时代中期,也就是距今8000多年至距今5000多年的"农业革命"时代应为炎黄时代.     

Serial dependence and regression of Poisson INARMA models

Time series of counts occur in many fields of practice, with the Poisson distribution as a popular choice for the marginal process distribution. A great variety of serial dependence structures of stationary count processes can be modelled by the INARMA family. In this article, we propose a new approach to the INMA(q) family in general, including previously known results as special cases. In the particular case of Poisson marginals, we will derive new results concerning regression properties and the serial dependence structure of INAR(1) and INMA(q) models. Finally, we present explicit expressions for the distribution of jumps in such processes.     

Some theory and practical uses of trimmed L-moments

Trimmed L-moments, defined by Elamir and Seheult [2003. Trimmed L-moments. Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 43, 299–314], summarize the shape of probability distributions or data samples in a way that remains viable for heavy-tailed distributions, even those for which the mean may not exist. We derive some further theoretical results concerning trimmed L-moments: a relation with the expansion of the quantile function as a weighted sum of Jacobi polynomials; the bounds that must be satisfied by trimmed L-moments; recurrences between trimmed L-moments with different degrees of trimming; and the asymptotic distributions of sample estimators of trimmed L-moments. We also give examples of how trimmed L-moments can be used, analogously to L-moments, in the analysis of heavy-tailed data. Examples include identification of distributions using a trimmed L-moment ratio diagram, shape parameter estimation for the generalized Pareto distribution, and fitting generalized Pareto distributions to a heavy-tailed data sample of computer network traffic.     

中世纪欧洲妇女文学之影响因素分析

欧洲中世纪时期,女性作家及作品受到了社会政治、宗教、文化教育等因素的影响。首先,在政治上,女性居于从属地位,不可能去专心写作,而且家庭内部的不平等,客观上也阻碍了女性进行创作。其次,由于宗教的影响,女性作家在作品题材上多为日记、书信、自传、诗歌,并且只能关注日常生活中的琐碎小事。第三,文化教育对女性的歧视,使得女性作家除了修道院的修女外,只有少数几位贵族妇女在中世纪的文学中留有一笔。第四,中世纪后期女性意识的觉醒,使得女性作家的作品内容较前丰富。     

Forecasting mortality rates via density ratio modeling

The authors propose a semiparametric approach to modeling and forecasting age‐specific mortality in the United States. Their method is based on an extension of a class of semiparametric models to time series. It combines information from several time series and estimates the predictive distribution conditional on past data. The conditional expectation, which is the most commonly used predictor in practice, is the first moment of this distribution. The authors compare their method to that of Lee and Carter.     

拯救辩证法还是消解辩证法——与田海平、马英林二先生商榷

一个半世纪前,马克思提出要从黑格尔哲学的神秘形式中把"一切辩证法的基本形式"解救出来。一个半世纪后,田海平、马英林二先生在《拯救辩证法:后形而上学时代的思想任务》一文中,重提"拯救辩证法"这一课题,对当代的辩证法研究是一个极大的推动。马克思的哲学研究,不仅有效地拯救了以黑格尔为代表的思辨辩证法,而且卓有成效地创立了合理形态的辩证法。但是,田、马二先生却认为,马克思的工作只是拯救辩证法这一"漫长旅程的开端或开始",而更重要的任务乃是进一步从形而上学的思想谱系与现实运作中"拯救"辩证法,并且认为,这是"后形而上学时代的思想任务"。不难看出,田、马二先生的"拯救辩证法"与马克思的"拯救辩证法"是根本不同的:马克思的拯救辩证法,是剔除神秘主义的思辨形式,救出"一切辩证法的基本形式",其结果是救出了辩证法;而田、马二先生的拯救辩证法,则是只保留辩证法的批判本性,而否定辩证法的形而上的本体论意蕴,从而否定一切辩证法共同具有的"基本形式",其结果是消解了辩证法。     

Bayesian Multivariate Spatial Interpolation with Data Missing by Design

In a network of s _g sites, responses like levels of airborne pollutant concentrations may be monitored over time. The sites need not all measure the same set of response items and unmeasured items are considered as data missing by design . We propose a hierarchical Bayesian approach to interpolate the levels of, say, k responses at s _u other locations called ungauged sites and also the unmeasured levels of the k responses at the gauged sites. Our method involves two steps. First, when all hyperparameters are assumed to be known, a predictive distribution is derived. In turn, an interpolator, its variance and a simultaneous interpolation region are obtained. In step two, we propose the use of an empirical Bayesian approach to estimate the hyperparameters through an EM algorithm. We base our theory on a linear Gaussian model and the relationship between a multivariate normal and matrix T -distribution. Our theory allows us to pool data from several existing networks that measure different subsets of response items for interpolation.