教派主义与叙利亚危机教派化机制浅析

关于教派因素在叙利亚危机中作用的现有研究多持工具论观点,忽视了教派身份认同被精英工具化的必要条件以及教派动员的微观机制。本文认为,教派因素确非叙利亚危机爆发的根本原因,但阿萨德家族统治时期叙利亚社会长期积累的教派间利益分流、社会区隔和敌对情绪,一定程度上构成了危机教派化的前提条件和大众动员的最初框架。2011年叙利亚危机爆发伊始,民间自发的地方性教派动员和暴力已然出现。叙国内外精英通过不同政策迅速直接或间接介入民间自发性的教派动员,制造或强化了历史积累和新近出现的教派敌意、利益冲突、能力、机会等因素,触发并加剧了“安全困境/暴力螺旋”和“群体内—群体间交互作用”两大机制,最终导致了危机的教派化。     

Substance use disorders and referral to treatment in substantiated cases of child maltreatment

Parents with substance use disorders (SUD) require treatment and support in order to provide children with appropriate care and protection. Using the 2012 National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS), this paper analysed 464 313 substantiated child maltreatment reports to determine (i) the proportion and characteristics of reports involving substance abuse; and (ii) the child and caregiver/perpetrator (C/P) characteristics that predicted referral to treatment as recorded in service plans. Findings indicate that 12% (N = 53 234) of maltreatment reports involved C/P SUD. Yet, of those reports, only (19%) (N = 10 088) were referred to substance abuse treatment as part of their service plan, indicating a large gap between those who need treatment and those who receive it. This finding is important given that parental SUD is consistently linked to poorer child outcomes. Amongst other variables, reports indicate that C/P with co‐occurring emotional disturbance were three times more likely to be referred to treatment for SUD as part of service plans. Additional research is needed regarding the characteristics that distinguish C/P who receive referrals for SUD treatment in substantiated cases of child maltreatment.     

我国残疾人服务体系的完善对策

中国残疾人服务体系亟待完善。推进残疾人服务体系建设必须注重发展的均等化与体系的一体化,设施的标准化与内容的规范化,队伍的专业化与评估的科学化,资源的多元化与管理的合理化。     

Whither practice-near research in the modernization programme? Policy blunders in children's services

In this article, we lament the effects of practice-distant research and associated policy initiatives on contemporary children's services in England. In the last decade, as a result of high profile inquiries into non-accidental child deaths, statutory children's social care services in the UK have been subject to a wide-reaching ‘modernization’ programme. We studied decision-making in the high blame environment of local authority children's services. Our research sought to examine the relationship between performance management and the impact of anticipated blame within the decision-making practices of those providing, supervising and managing these services. We show that systems and technologies can be developed which both assist the users in their daily work and achieve desired organizational goals, but without an ethnographically informed, practice-near approach, unsafe work regimes and practices can ensue.     

Quality and Reliability in Top-event Estimation: Quantitative Fault Tree Analysis in Case of Dependent Events

This article deals with the quantitative Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and the estimation method of the top-event in case of dependent events. It aims at addressing two main issues: (1) the decomposition of variability for the top-event according to several error components linked to the estimation of the top-event and sources of internal and external variations for a complex system; and (2) the definition of a Performance Measure Independent of Adjustment in order to set the quality of the top-event as a complex measure of the system failure. A simulated study applied to the health system is also carried out.     

Extending systems thinking in planning and evaluation using group concept mapping and system dynamics to tackle complex problems

Group concept mapping (GCM) has been successfully employed in program planning and evaluation for over 25 years. The broader set of systems thinking methodologies (of which GCM is one), have only recently found their way into the field. We present an overview of systems thinking emerging from a system dynamics (SD) perspective, and illustrate the potential synergy between GCM and SD. As with GCM, participatory processes are frequently employed when building SD models; however, it can be challenging to engage a large and diverse group of stakeholders in the iterative cycles of divergent thinking and consensus building required, while maintaining a broad perspective on the issue being studied. GCM provides a compelling resource for overcoming this challenge, by richly engaging a diverse set of stakeholders in broad exploration, structuring, and prioritization. SD provides an opportunity to extend GCM findings by embedding constructs in a testable hypothesis (SD model) describing how system structure and changes in constructs affect outcomes over time. SD can be used to simulate the hypothesized dynamics inherent in GCM concept maps. We illustrate the potential of the marriage of these methodologies in a case study of BECOMING, a federally-funded program aimed at strengthening the cross-sector system of care for youth with severe emotional disturbances.     

学分绩点制在武汉七所部属高校的实践与探索

学分绩点制是一种能客观衡量学生学习质量的教学管理制度。学分绩点制在武汉地区七校联合办学实践中的应用,为联合办学的可持续发展提供了有益的探索。     

中国高校泛行政化的源与流——基于对古代官学系统的图谱分析

高校的泛行政化并不是当下才有的现象,而是古已有之。弄清高校的这种泛行政化现象的源头所在以及高校泛行政化的具体流变过程,需要对我国古代官学系统进行系统的分析,用图谱演绎的方法来对古代官学系统演进过程进行研究,是实现对高校泛行政化溯本求源的有效方法之一。     

Bayesian Design of Special Type of Double Sampling Plans for Compliance Testing

Bayesian acceptance sampling plans, which utilize prior information on the process variation, can be employed as an alternative to conventional types of plans for taking decisions on the disposition of submitted lots. A special type of double sampling inspection plans by attributes with small acceptance numbers using Bayesian methodology is presented in this paper emphasizing its significance over small acceptance number single sampling plans. The procedures for designing such sampling plans for specified degree of discrimination which would ensure protection to the producer and consumer are discussed with illustrations under the conditions for the application of gamma-Poisson distribution.     

浅析社会工作的结构化过程

本文旨在分析社会工作的运行机制,试图溯源社会工作广泛的主客体关系,借助吉登斯的结构化理论,反思社会工作领域内的多重解释和二元对立,并将社会工作的运行机制归结到结构化的构成之中,在密布资源和规则的结构之中发现充满"实践意识"的行动者,从而感应社会工作发展的脉动。