西部开发、劳动就业与人力资源证券化战略

高效地配置、使用我国丰富人力资源,使人力资源优势转化为经济优势,对加强西部开发、西部防务与国家劳动就业有重要意义。劳动原始积累—待遇期权—期权转股—周期性人口流动制度,作为人力资源证券化、资本化的核心模式,能把中国丰富劳动力资源转化成像货币资本一样的生产要素自由流动和配置,能把大量劳动者和西部开发紧密“屯”在一起,大大拉动西部乃至国家经济的增长,全面提高综合国力。     

A Cross-Validation Analysis of Neural Network Out-of-Sample Performance in Exchange Rate Forecasting

Econometric methods used in foreign exchange rate forecasting have produced inferior out-of-sample results compared to a random walk model. Applications of neural networks have shown mixed findings. In this paper, we investigate the potentials of neural network models by employing two cross-validation schemes. The effects of different in-sample time periods and sample sizes are examined. Out-of-sample performance evaluated with four criteria across three forecasting horizons shows that neural networks are a more robust forecasting method than the random walk model. Moreover, neural network predictions are quite accurate even when the sample size is relatively small.     

Incorporating Price and Replacement Purchases in New Product Diffusion Models for Consumer Durables*

The article presents theoretical and empirical research findings which incorporate price and replacement purchases in new product diffusion models. On the theoretical side, this paper characterizes, qualitatively, optimum pricing policies for new products. Possible entry of rivals is not considered, but repeat sales, cost learning dynamics and discounting of future profit streams are allowed. Theoretical research findings suggest that the inclusion of repeat purchases in the diffusion model significantly changes the derived optimal pricing policy even if replacements were not price dependent. On the empirical side, alternative first purchase and repeat purchase models have been estimated and compared using nonlinear procedures. The diffusion data analyzed is related to nine consumer durables. Empirical research findings suggest that, for the considered product categories, diffusion is basically an imitative process, price can affect first and replacement purchases, and unit production cost is a decreasing function of cumulative first purchases. Managerial implications of the research findings are also discussed.     

A Dynamic Model of Product Quality and Pricing Decisions on Sales Response

This paper presents a dynamic model that examines the influence of price and customer perception of product quality on the sales rate of a firm producing durable goods. The sales rate of the firm is modeled as a function of its price, average product life, perceived quality, and market potential. Specifically, the model considers: (1) the process by which perceived quality is determined by including the effects of the average life of a product and quality weighted units in the market; (2) the time delay in the influence of actual quality on perceived quality; (3) the process by which demand (i.e., potential sales) is converted to realized sales due to the effects of price and perceived quality; and (4) the saturation effect and associated non-linearity in the demand function. The model presented is a reformulation and extension of the model originally proposed by Bass [2]. The validity of the model is tested using historical data on For Mustang.     

Optimal Cash Tender Offers*

This paper develops a contingent claims analysis, a simple decision model for determining the optimal price in a cash tender offer. The implied behavior of the optimal tender offer premium over the market price of the target common stock is also investigated. Those readers interested in applying the model may obtain an interactive computer program written in FORTRAN and implementable on a personal computer from the authors on request.     

A Test of the Cross-Sectional Robustness of the Arbitrage Pricing Model Using Foreign Exchange Rates*

This paper tests the cross-sectional robustness of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) model using foreign exchange rate data to determine if the model is robust with respect to the various random samples and various factor analytic techniques. Factor scores are developed using various samples and factor analytic techniques to explain the returns for other samples and groupings. The APT model is found to be robust across samples and techniques.     

可转换债券的定价及其影响因素的实证分析

作为我国证券市场上一种新兴的保值增值的投资工具 ,可转换债券具有债券和期权的双重特征 ,兼具筹资和避险的双重功能。引入这一融资工具 ,有助于培养正确的投资理念、平易证券市场的剧烈波动、促进我国证券市场的发展。了解可转债的定价原理以及影响其价格的因素有助于市场参与者制定成功的投资筹资策略 ,从而加快可转换债券的发展。本文以江苏阳光可转债为例 ,具体应用了B -S期权定价模型 ,并分析了其投资价值。     

高校科技成果转化的实物期权分析

本文针对高校科技成果转化中的投资采用实物期权的方法进行了分析 ,分别对高校的技术产品的研发和企业对新技术产品的市场化提出了实物期权决策的框架     

确定性等值法在经理股票期权定价中的应用研究

布莱克-斯科尔斯模型是国际上通用的期权定价模型,但这一模型应用于经理股票期权价值的确定却遭到越来越多的批判。针对经理股票期权的特征,文章拟采用“确定性等值法”来科学、合理地解决经理股票期权价值的确定问题。这将有利于股权激励机制的优化,从而达到最优激励效果。     

合理的人力资本投资风险定价对我国西部地区开发人力资本的影响

面对西部地区劳动素质低下的现状 ,本文通过投资 -收益比较分析 ,提出了确立合理的人力资本投资风险定价是开发和形成西部地区人力资本的重要因素 ,也是促进人们对人力资本投资的重要依据。