Tenure Profiles and Efficient Separation in a Stochastic Productivity Model

We develop a theoretical model based on efficient bargaining, where both log outside productivity and log productivity in the current job follow a random walk. This setting allows the application of real option theory. We derive the efficient worker-firm separation rule. We show that wage data from completed job spells are uninformative about the true tenure profile. The model is estimated on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. It fits the observed distribution of job tenures well. Selection of favorable random walks can account for the concavity in tenure profiles. About 80% of the estimated wage returns to tenure is due to selectivity in the realized outside productivities.     

基于双因素理论的宁波高层次海归人才效能提升对策

通过政策创新、机制创新和环境创新,激活高层次海归人才的“保健因素”和“激励因素”,最大限度提升人才效能,是加快区域经济创新驱动与转型发展的重要途径。文章以赫茨伯格的双因素理论为视角,在分析制约因素的基础上,从建设人才特区、落实创业扶持政策、提供心理调适服务、创新考评机制、完善创业平台等方面提出发挥人才效能的对策。     

汉唐灾异认识论初探

汉唐时期对灾异的认识有一个发展的历程。两汉时期,人们认为水、旱、震、日月食等属于灾异范畴,基本上是用阴阳五行说、天人感应论等来解释灾异的产生,表达其对灾异的认识。唐代,仍然注重与农业相关的灾异,与汉代相比,基本忽视了地震、日食、火灾等灾异。在两汉灾异认识论的基础上,唐代仍然认为灾异为天谴,但是也有人淡化了董仲舒"天地之物,有不常之变者,谓之异"的思想,认为"灾变"非"灾异",灾变有常,是客观存在或者是人为造成的,这就是唐代出现的灾变自然成因说和社会成因说。相较两汉而言,唐代对于灾异的认识更加深入、更加客观。     

Measurement Equivalence Using Generalizability Theory: An Examination of Manufacturing Flexibility Dimensions

As the field of decision sciences in general and operations management in particular has matured from theory building to theory testing over the past two decades, it has witnessed an explosion in empirical research. Much of this work is anchored in survey‐based methodologies in which data are collected from the field in the form of scale items that are then analyzed to measure latent unobservable constructs. It is important to assess the invariance of scales across groups in order to reach valid, scientifically sound conclusions. Because studies have often been conducted in the field of decision sciences with small sample sizes, it further exacerbates the problem of reaching incorrect conclusions. Generalizability theory can more effectively test for measurement equivalence in the presence of small sample sizes than the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) tests that have been conventionally used for assessing measurement equivalency across groups. Consequently, we introduce and explain the generalizability theory (G‐theory) in this article to examine measurement equivalence of 24 manufacturing flexibility dimension scales that have been published in prior literature and also compare and contrast G‐theory with CFA. We show that all the manufacturing flexibility scales tested in this study were invariant across the three industry SIC groups from which data were collected. We strongly recommend that G‐theory should always be used for determining measurement equivalence in empirical survey‐based studies. In addition, because using G‐theory alone does not always reveal the complete picture, CFA techniques for establishing measurement equivalence should also be invoked when sample sizes are large enough to do so. Implications of G‐theory for practice and its future use in operations management and decision sciences research are also presented.     

Understanding the Determinants of Service Channel Preference in the Early Stages of Adoption: A Social Cognitive Perspective on Online Brokerage Services*

In today's increasingly technology‐mediated world, individuals are often confronted with a decision of whether to obtain services through online, self‐service technologies or traditional, nontechnological alternatives. Understanding the mechanisms by which consumers choose among these competing service channels represents an important concern for organizations, consumers, and Web site designers. This study develops a research model based on Social Cognitive Theory to explain and predict service channel preferences that arise in the early stages of adoption, before a consumer conducts business using a particular channel. The model is subsequently tested in the brokerage services context, using observations obtained via survey. Given the growing popularity of online investing combined with the challenging prospect of making optimal decisions in an inherently risky environment, the context offers insights of practical and theoretical importance. The results suggest that task‐specific self‐efficacy beliefs serve as the activating mechanism kicking off a chain of psychological events that entice consumers to favor a particular service channel. Higher levels of self‐efficacy induce individuals to prefer the online approach. In addition to its direct effect on preference for the online service channel, higher levels of self‐efficacy influence one's propensity to take risks and expectations of performance‐oriented rewards, which, in turn, sway consumers to favor the online service channel. Furthermore, self‐efficacy and perceptions concerning the credibility of online information interact to affect service channel preference. Consumers are more likely to prefer the online service channel when they view themselves as capable and perceive online sources to be credible. Implications for theory and practice are discussed in light of the findings.     

The impact of autonomy on information systems planning effectiveness

Autonomy for information systems planning may have an impact on the effectiveness of that planning. Theory Y suggests that when managers have more autonomy, they have greater feelings of ownership, commitment, and responsibility, and thus perform better. A postal survey of 131 chief information officers of US subsidiaries of multinational firms collected data to test hypotheses based on the theory. Data analysis revealed that autonomy for IS planning in general and the strategy selection planning activity in particular significantly predicted IS planning effectiveness. These findings thus extend the theory to a new domain, namely IS planning in multinational firms, and thereby facilitate a better understanding of the management of IS planning. They further suggest that parent managers consider delegating greater autonomy to the managers of their foreign subsidiaries.     

合并商誉的本质及会计处理:企业资源基础理论和交易费用视角

合并商誉一直是会计界争论较多的问题之一,本文试图以企业资源基础论对合并商誉的本质进行解释,先从无交易费用的理想情况着手建立模型并逐渐放松假设,考虑各种情况下合并商誉的含义以及出现合并负商誉的条件,最后对合并商誉的会计处理提出一些建议。本文认为,合并正商誉的实质是被并购企业的异质性资源加入并购企业为其带来的商誉增值,合并负商誉产生的根本原因是被并企业本身的价值因素而非交易费用。当被并企业的持续经营价值大于清算价值时,合并负商誉与企业本身的价值因素更相关;反之则与交易费用、清算成本更相关。     

期望不一致对满意影响的函数形式:展望理论的预测

展望理论有关价值函数具有参考点依赖、敏感性递减(非线性)和损失厌恶(非对称)等性质的预测,在顾客满意领域日益得到关注。尽管在理解满意的时候,人们将"期望不一致"作为主导范式,但是大多数实证研究不恰当地将负向(正向)绩效等同于负向(正向)不一致,从而未能严格检验参考点依赖的作用。此外,展望理论中的敏感性递减和损失厌恶两方面性质很少同时得到验证。为弥补上述不足,作者根据来自四个产品类别,即手机(n=2518)、笔记本电脑(n=1932)、台式电脑(n=1954)和电视机(n=2204)的调查数据对上述预测进行了实证检验。通过直接将"期望不一致"操作为绩效期望与感知绩效之间的差值,并且以三次多项式函数设定"期望不一致"与满意之间的关系,展望理论的预测得到了一致的实证支持。     

ISCED（2011）：理论发展与分类变化

ISCED（2011）是联合国教科文组织（UNESCO）即将在全球实施的一套新的教育统计国际标准。本文分析了ISCED（2011）教育理论和分类方法的重要变化：教育理论方面,修订了教育概念、强调了非正规教育、确认了公认资格证书在教育活动中的作用、突出了高等教育的多样化;分类方法方面,构建了双变量交叉分类的框架、建立了受教育程度的分类、对教育等级分类进行了改进、采用了三级编码方法。论文最后指出,我国应在教育路径多元化、高等教育多样化、终身教育等方面予以借鉴。     

论共识的缺失与"州废止国会法令运动"

"州废止国会法令运动"是美国内战前的一次重大政治危机.关税问题是直接诱因;斗争双方在区城经济发展方向、主权归属和宪法内涵等根本问题上缺乏必要的共识则是导致该事件发生的深层原因.危机在形式上的解决非但没能形成宪政共识,相反却使南北间的政治分歧进一步加大、州权理论系统化和南部奴隶主自我保全的危机意识加剧,最终导致了内战的爆发.