Testing the Equality of Two Exponential Distributions

This paper proposes an overlapping-based test statistic for testing the equality of two exponential distributions with different scale and location parameters. The test statistic is defined as the maximum likelihood estimate of the Weitzman's overlapping coefficient, which estimates the agreement of two densities. The proposed test statistic is derived in closed form. Simulated critical points are generated for the proposed test statistic for various sample sizes and significance levels via Monte Carlo Simulations. Statistical powers of the proposed test are computed via simulation studies and compared to those of the existing Log likelihood ratio test.     

哈贝马斯和利奥塔现代性理论之比较

在哈贝马斯和利奥塔之间进行的关于现代性的争论颇具代表性,一个声称现代性是"一项未竟的事业",另一个则对元叙事表示质疑。哈贝马斯的"共识"理论和利奥塔的"差异"理论,表面上思维迥异,但实际上却包藏了雷同与巧合,具有差异性的同时也具有共通性。在深层次进行整合,寻找两者理论及政治倾向中蕴藏的共同点,利于剖析两者理论的合理与局限,使超越两者形成新的理论成为可能。     

On qualitative multi-attribute group decision making and its consensus measure: A probability based perspective

This paper focuses on qualitative multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) with linguistic information in terms of single linguistic terms and/or flexible linguistic expressions. To do so, we propose a new linguistic decision rule based on the concepts of random preference and stochastic dominance, by a probability based interpretation of weight information. The importance weights and the concept of fuzzy majority are incorporated into both the multi-attribute and collective decision rule by the so-called weighted ordered weighted averaging operator with the input parameters expressed as probability distributions over a linguistic term set. Moreover, a probability based method is proposed to measure the consensus degree between individual and collective overall random preferences based on the concept of stochastic dominance, which also takes both the importance weights and the fuzzy majority into account. As such, our proposed approaches are based on the ordinal semantics of linguistic terms and voting statistics. By this, on one hand, the strict constraint of the uniform linguistic term set in linguistic decision making can be released; on the other hand, the difference and variation of individual opinions can be captured. The proposed approaches can deal with qualitative MAGDM with single linguistic terms and flexible linguistic expressions. Two application examples taken from the literature are used to illuminate the proposed techniques by comparisons with existing studies. The results show that our proposed approaches are comparable with existing studies.     

Is Risk Analysis Scientific?

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact‐based or value‐based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk‐related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part).     

Fuzzy duocentric community detection model in social networks

The main goal of this paper is to present a clustering model to identify duocentric communities in the complex networks. A duocentric community is built around two central nodes which are as close as possible to other nodes, while the central nodes are connected enough to each other to shape the center of the community. To detect such communities, we develop a new objective function based clustering model. The network's nodes are assigned to the duocentric communities by the type-2 fuzzy numbers which indicate the degrees of belonging to the communities by upper and lower membership values. Generated interval type-2 fuzzy membership values by our proposed model are able to determine how much each node belongs to the both central nodes and how it is shared among communities. Also, the compatible verification index with the proposed model is introduced to evaluate and compare the results of the proposed model with the existing approach in the literature. Finally, the performance of the proposed algorithm is validated by detecting duocentric communities in three artificial networks and two real social networks.     

Between group variance component interval estimation for the unbalanced heteroscedastic one-way random effects model

The studied topic is motivated by the problem of interlaboratory comparisons. This paper focuses on the confidence interval estimation of the between group variance in the unbalanced heteroscedastic one-way random effects model. Several interval estimators are proposed and compared by means of the simulation study. The most recommended (safest) is the confidence interval based on Bonferroni's inequality.     

An approach to consensus measurement of linguistic preference relations in multi-attribute group decision making and application

This paper studies the group decision making problem with linguistic preference relations. We first study the consensus measure between the individual preference relations and the collective (group) preference relation by defining the concept of degree of similarity between two linguistic values and two linguistic preference relations. Then we propose a concept of the acceptance consensus threshold value for group decision making with linguistic preference information. We show that the consensus between individual preference relations and the collective (group) preference relation is greater than the weighted similarity degree of a given individual preference relation with respect to other individual preference relations in group decision making with linguistic preference relations. The results will help in the analysis of crucial issues of conflict and agreement among preferences of decision-makers, which affect the consensus of group decision making with linguistic preference relations. Theoretical foundations are then established for the proposed method. Finally, the proposed method is applied to evaluate the degree of consensus of individual overall preference values with respect to the collective overall preference values for multi-attribute group decision making with linguistic information. The main contribution of this paper is twofold. One is to present a new way to measure the consensus between the individual preference relations and the collective (group) preference relation in group decision making with linguistic preference information. Another is to provide an effective approach to evaluating individual overall preference values with respect to the collective overall preference values in multi-attribute group decision making with linguistic information.     

Group decision analysis and its application to combining opinions

This paper is about the graphical depiction of the set of feasible gains-in-utilities accruing to three Bayesians involved in the joint estimation of a multivatiate normal mean vector. The basic theory for this problem is sketched. Then a suitable parametrization of surface contours is developed. These contours allow the surface to be mapped and graphically displayed. This is done with the LIG language for interactive graphics. As the opinions of the three Bayesians diverge, the illustrations contained in the paper show how the initially smooth balloon shaped structure develops and ‘clicks’ through a flat spot and eventually becomes highly irregular with a central indentation. The result provides insight into the nature of disensus where explicit mathematical analysis is extremely difficult.     

发展经济学研究的最新进展

经过半个多世纪的发展,发展经济学研究在各个方面都取得了巨大的成就.主要分析发展经济学研究近十年以来所取得的最新进展,以及发展经济学已经解决和还未解决的几个问题,探讨发展经济学从"华盛顿共识"到"后华盛顿共识"的转变历程,解析发展经济学与增长理论从相互背离到相互融合的过程,讨论了在解释落后国家为什么会陷入贫困陷阱这个问题时,发展经济学所取得的最新进展.     

哈贝马斯的商谈共识论及其理论形式

面对技术理性统治所带来的西方社会的合法化危机,哈贝马斯在其商谈政治观的理论框架下提出了商谈共识的理论思想,试图为解决价值多元社会的发展困境提供一个可行的路径。哈贝马斯的商谈共识在哲学认知论、政治哲学论以及政治实践论三个层次上表现为不同的理论形式。把握商谈共识论的理论形式,可以为建构政治共识论的一般性理论形式提供有益的借鉴和启示。