发展经济学研究的最新进展

经过半个多世纪的发展,发展经济学研究在各个方面都取得了巨大的成就.主要分析发展经济学研究近十年以来所取得的最新进展,以及发展经济学已经解决和还未解决的几个问题,探讨发展经济学从"华盛顿共识"到"后华盛顿共识"的转变历程,解析发展经济学与增长理论从相互背离到相互融合的过程,讨论了在解释落后国家为什么会陷入贫困陷阱这个问题时,发展经济学所取得的最新进展.     

长寿风险对教育和退休决策的影响

本文在三阶段世代交叠及两部门经济模型的框架下研究长寿风险对劳动者受教育年限、退休年龄及长期收入的影响。个人的一生分为教育、工作及退休三个阶段,同时劳动者采用经验-工资的倒U型曲线,在此条件下分析劳动者的工作-闲暇决定和消费-储蓄决定。根据模型显示,长寿风险会增加个人的受教育年限、延长退休年龄以及增加劳动者的长期收入。同时,根据模型的敏感性分析,政府对劳动者征收的税率也会对劳动者个人决策产生影响,而且这种影响的程度超过了长寿风险的影响。最后,根据模型的结论提出了相应的政策性建议。     

The design of socially optimal decisions in a consensus scenario

Several situations of conflict between basic social principles can crop up during a consensus searching process. The majority principle and respect for minority groups is a possible example of a conflictive situation between two social principles. In this paper, we outline a specific consensus searching scenario, where individual preferences are expressed by “pairwise” comparison matrices. The set of compromise consensuses between the majority and minority principles is determined using a procedure based upon an adaptation of Yu's p-metric distances. Finally, we use three different theoretical approaches – utility theory, p-metric distance functions and bargaining theory – to obtain the social optimum from the set of compromise consensuses. The links and differences among the three approaches are analysed. Finally, the working of the proposed theoretical framework is illustrated with the help of a forestry case study.     

The Fount of All Knowledge: Training Required to Involve Service Users and Carers in Health and Social Care Education and Training

A modified Delphi study was carried out in order to obtain consensus regarding the content of a university training course to involve service users and carers at all stages of the health and social care educational process within a higher education environment. Telephone interviews were carried out with service users and carers, educationalists and leaders in the field of service user and carer involvement to generate curriculum ideas. A questionnaire was developed from their responses and sent to a purposive sample of 65 people (24 service users and carers, 28 health and social care educationalists and 13 leaders in the field of service user and carer involvement). Fifty‐five statements were generated with consensus being reached on 46 (84%) statements. Mismatches between service users and carers, educationalists and leaders in the field were explored. Key themes to be included in the curriculum were identified. This paper demonstrates that the best training is not imposed upon service users and carers by academics or others who think they know best; rather, that service users and carers themselves can play a leading role in identifying their training needs and devising strategies to ensure these needs are effectively met.     

The Effectiveness of Multistage Ranked Set Sampling in Stratifying the Population

The spectral analysis of Gaussian linear time-series processes is usually based on uni-frequential tools because the spectral density functions of degree 2 and higher are identically zero and there is no polyspectrum in this case. In finite samples, such an approach does not allow the resolution of closely adjacent spectral lines, except by using autoregressive models of excessively high order in the method of maximum entropy. In this article, multi-frequential periodograms designed for the analysis of discrete and mixed spectra are defined and studied for their properties in finite samples. For a given vector of frequencies ω, the sum of squares of the corresponding trigonometric regression model fitted to a time series by unweighted least squares defines the multi-frequential periodogram statistic IM(ω). When ω is unknown, it follows from the properties of nonlinear models whose parameters separate (i.e., the frequencies and the cosine and sine coefficients here) that the least-squares estimator of frequencies is obtained by maximizing I ^M(ω). The first-order, second-order and distribution properties of I ^M(ω) are established theoretically in finite samples, and are compared with those of Schuster's uni-frequential periodogram statistic. In the multi-frequential periodogram analysis, the least-squares estimator of frequencies is proved to be theoretically unbiased in finite samples if the number of periodic components of the time series is correctly estimated. Here, this number is estimated at the end of a stepwise procedure based on pseudo-Flikelihood ratio tests. Simulations are used to compare the stepwise procedure involving I ^M(ω) with a stepwise procedure using Schuster's periodogram, to study an approximation of the asymptotic theory for the frequency estimators in finite samples in relation to the proximity and signal-to-noise ratio of the periodic components, and to assess the robustness of I ^M(ω) against autocorrelation in the analysis of mixed spectra. Overall, the results show an improvement of the new method over the classical approach when spectral lines are adjacent. Finally, three examples with real data illustrate specific aspects of the method, and extensions (i.e., unequally spaced observations, trend modeling, replicated time series, periodogram matrices) are outlined.     

The Asbestos Case: A Comment on the Appointment and Use of Nonpartisan Experts in World Trade Organization Dispute Resolution Involving Health Risk

The World Trade Organization is currently evolving its approach to incorporating scientific and technological evidence into its dispute-resolution process. In European Communities-Measures Affecting Asbestos and Asbestos-Containing Products, the Panel was faced with a large amount of complex and conflicting scientific evidence presented by the partisan experts. The Asbestos Panel's solution was to appoint independent, nonpartisan experts to help it understand and evaluate the scientific evidence. While this was far better than trying to unravel the conflicting scientific evidence on its own, two aspects of the Panel's adopted procedure merit scrutiny. First, the expert-selection process used by the Panel may not assure that the collective expertise of the appointed experts is broad enough when the dispute involves multidisciplinary scientific issues. Second, the process adopted by the Panel for consulting the appointed experts-which involved individual consultation rather than a consensus process-may leave a panel with a distorted or confused picture of the science. A consensus approach is the best means of obtaining scientific advice from appointed experts; it is most calculated to provide a clear and accurate report of the scientific information needed by a panel to make a fair and informed decision on the dispute before it. The underlying principle of world trade agreements is that it is beneficial to all of us to have free trade. Among other things, this requires an effective means of resolving disputes, and increasingly that includes disputes involving complex scientific and technological issues. This can be achieved only if the parties have confidence that their disputes will be decided in a fair and informed manner, based on the best science available. To achieve this goal, we suggest that future WTO panels depart in certain respects from the procedures utilized by the Asbestos Panel.     

International consensus definition of critical thinking in midwifery practice: A Delphi study

ProblemCurrently there is no discipline-specific definition of critical thinking in midwifery practice.BackgroundCritical thinking in midwifery practice is the cornerstone for safe, evidence based, and woman centred clinical decision-making. Available definitions of critical thinking in other disciplines do not align with midwifery practice which is distinctive, multidimensional and complex.AimTo develop an international consensus definition of critical thinking in midwifery practice.MethodsA two round Delphi study was used. Thirty-two international midwifery experts contributed to the first round which was qualitative in nature. Twenty one of these experts then ranked the relevance and clarity of concepts from round one.FindingsA consensus definition of critical thinking in midwifery practice was achieved. The expert panel identified and defined 14 ‘Habits of Mind’ and 12 Skills that are the core of critical thinking in midwifery practice. Skills included; analysis, constructive application and contextualisation of best available evidence, problem solving, discriminating, predicting, evaluation of care, collect and interpret clinical cues, collaboration/ negotiation, reflexivity, facilitates shared decision-making, communication, and transforming knowledge. Habits of Mind included; intellectual curiosity, reflective, holistic view, intellectual integrity, flexibility, questioning/challenging, participatory, open mindedness, listening with understanding and empathy, cultural humility, woman centred, being brave, confidence, and creativity.Discussion/conclusionThis study is an international first and delineates characteristics of critical thinking in midwifery. Development of a consensus definition provides a common and shared understanding of the skills and attributes required for critical thinking in midwifery practice and can also be applied in education and research.