Geospatial Modeling of Containment Probability for Escaped Wildfires in a Mediterranean Region

Despite escalating expenditures in firefighting, extreme fire events continue to pose a major threat to ecosystem services and human communities in Mediterranean areas. Developing a safe and effective fire response is paramount to efficiently restrict fire spread, reduce negative effects to natural values, prevent residential housing losses, and avoid causalties. Though current fire policies in most countries demand full suppression, few studies have attempted to identify the strategic locations where firefighting efforts would likely contain catastrophic fire events. The success in containing those fires that escape initial attack is determined by diverse structural factors such as ground accessibility, airborne support, barriers to surface fire spread, and vegetation impedance. In this study, we predicted the success in fire containment across Catalonia (northeastern Spain) using a model generated with random forest from detailed geospatial data and a set of 73 fire perimeters for the period 2008–2016. The model attained a high predictive performance (AUC = 0.88), and the results were provided at fine resolution (25 m) for the entire study area (32,108 km²). The highest success rates were found in agricultural plains along the nonburnable barriers such as major road corridors and largest rivers. Low levels of containment likelihood were predicted for dense forest lands and steep-relief mountainous areas. The results can assist in suppression resource pre-positioning and extended attack decision making, but also in strategic fuels management oriented at creating defensive locations and fragmenting the landscape in operational firefighting areas. Our modeling workflow and methods may serve as a baseline to generate locally adapted models in fire-prone areas elsewhere.     

美丽忧伤的乡村牧歌——评姜贻斌长篇小说《火鲤鱼》

姜贻斌长篇小说《火鲤鱼》,运用传统艺术技巧和现代魔幻手法,描绘了一幅中国乡村社会几十年发展变迁的美丽而宁静、喧嚣而忧伤的风俗画,表现了卑微乡民的苦难生活和他们对幸福的勇敢追寻,是我国近年来长篇小说创作的重大收获。     

Risk Preferences in Strategic Wildfire Decision Making: A Choice Experiment with U.S. Wildfire Managers

Federal policy has embraced risa management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risas of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risa aversion, and risa seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers respond to wildfire risa, including the potential effect of wildfires (on ecological values, structures, and safety) and the likelihood of different fire outcomes. We use responses to a choice experiment questionnaire of U.S. federal wildfire managers to measure attitudes toward several components of wildfire risa and to test whether observed risa attitudes are consistent with the efficient allocation of wildfire suppression resources. Our results indicate that fire managers’ decisions are consistent with nonexpected utility theories of decisions under risa. Managers may overallocate firefighting resources when the likelihood or potential magnitude of damage from fires is low, and sensitivity to changes in the probability of fire outcomes depends on whether probabilities are close to one or zero and the magnitude of the potential harm.     

《水浒传》的"夜化"叙事形态及其文化意蕴

《水浒传》的"夜化"叙事大致可分为传奇性的"夜行"、"夜走"、"夜闹"、"夜战"等形态。"夜行"叙事突出了各位英雄好汉孤身只影行走于荒郊旷野或偏僻地带的"虎胆";"夜走"叙事渲染了英雄失路和仓皇逃逸的悲情;"夜闹"叙事展现了"月黑杀人夜,风高放火天"的壮观;"夜战"叙事搬弄出惊心动魄的刀光剑影、战火阴霾。在传统农耕社会,人们每提及"昼伏夜出"、"夜聚晓散"等"夜间"活动,就容易产生"妖淫谋逆"等作奸犯科的"滋事"联想,因而《水浒传》的各种形态的"夜化"叙事包涵着挑战伦理秩序的寓意,特别有利于英雄好汉的"壮心"打造。同时,《水浒传》所叙之"夜"多集中在"秋夕"、"冬夜"等寒夜,符合传统社会"沙场秋点兵"的战争规律,尤其是那些发生于元宵、中秋等节日的"夜闹"故事,有利于渲染英雄悲情。     

论《死火》的时间意识

鲁迅名篇《死火》的时间意识具有现代品质。“空无的时间”和“充实的时间”是其并存的两种时间经验，它们分别体现了两种不同的意义建构模式。“抛入的此在时间”和“断裂的梦幻时间”是其共有的两种现在的瞬时类型，时间经验在当下瞬时呈“空间化”的聚集和撒播形状。从相对中看取绝对、虚无与实有的转化生成的时间“辩证性”，是其“中间物”意识的内核。     

Early Warning Indicators for Challenges in Underground Coal Storage

Early warning or leading indicators are discussed for unexpected incidences in case of large‐scale underground coal storage at a power plant. The experience is compared with above‐ground stockpiles for which established procedures are available but where access for prevention and mitigation are much easier. It is suggested that while the explicit organization, procedures, and the general safety systems aim to provide the targeted levels of performance for the storage, representing new technology without much precedence elsewhere in the world, the extensive experience and tacit knowledge from above‐ground open and closed storage systems can help to prepare for and to prevent unwanted incidents in the underground storage. This kind of experience has been also found useful for developing the leading or early warning indicators for underground storage. Examples are given on observed autoignition and freezing of coal in the storage silos, and on occupational hazards. Selection of the leading indicators needs to consider the specific features of the unique underground facility.     

《绿野仙踪》火龙真人形象考论

从唐诗到《绿野仙踪》之前的明清小说，火龙真人这一文学形象，经历数百年的发展，虽渐以形成、具备了诸如度人成仙并使之救助人世等主要特点，但总体上并不够引人注目，距离一成功人物形象颇为遥远。至李百川《绿野仙踪》出来，第一次给这一人物较全面的设定与描写，给他以全书故事发展提线人与掌控者的地位，才使这一形象有了质的变化，生动可感，内涵丰富。其在全书作为叙事之主脑与纲领人物的地位与作用，有似于《西游记》中观音菩萨和《水浒传》中九天玄女，并实际是模拟《西游记》中观音菩萨而有所创新的产物。     

Fire Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants: Methodological Developments and Applications

A methodology to quantify the risk from fires in nuclear power plants is described. This methodology combines engineering judgment, statistical evidence, fire phenomenology, and plant system analysis. It can be divided into two major parts: (1) fire scenario identification and quantification, and (2) analysis of the impact on plant safety. This article primarily concentrates on the first part. Statistical analysis of fire occurrence data is used to establish the likelihood of ignition. The temporal behaviors of the two competing phenomena, fire propagation and fire detection and suppression, are studied and their characteristic times are compared. Severity measures are used to further specialize the frequency of the fire scenario. The methodology is applied to a switchgear room of a nuclear power plant.     

Responses of children and adolescents to a fire in their homes

House fires are a common occurrence in the United States, often happening as isolated, personal disasters. This qualitative study examines the responses of 12 children, ages 6 to 17, who were survivors of 12 separate home fires in a Mid-Atlantic city. Two thirds of the families involved were single-parent families receiving public welfare. Children were interviewed between three and four months after the fire. Nine categories concerning the fire experience and its aftermath were identified: exposure, loss, displacement, attribution, stress responses, changes in relationships, self-report of changes in behavior, child's perception of parent's stress and child's view of adulthood and the future. Psychosocial themes that emerged included a sense of fear and blame, sleep disturbances, and a sense of vulnerability. Parents rated their children on a quantitative measure of behavior and social competence. The behavior rating scale revealed that half of the parents rated their child's adjustment after the fire as not normal. Children's reactions to larger-scale disasters are indicated. Implications of these findings for social work practice are discussed.This study was supported by a grant from the Hassel Foundation, Philadelphia, PA.