Sharing beliefs and the absence of betting in the Choquet expected utility model

Choquet expected utility maximizers tend to behave in a more “cautious” way than Bayesian agents, i. e. expected utility maximizers. We illustrate this phenomenon in the particular case of betting behavior. Specifically, consider agents who are Choquet expected utility maximizers. Then, if the economy is large, Pareto optimal allocations provide full insurance if and only if the agents share at least on prior, i. e., if the intersection of the core of the capacities representing their beliefs is non empty. In the expected utility case, this is true only if they have a common prior. Received: July 2000; revised version: May 2001     

How to combine pareto optimality with liberty considerations

I argue that the liberty condition of Sen's important impossibility of a Paretian liberal result is not a condition that liberals (or libertarians) would accept. The problem is that an appropriate liberty condition must be formulated in terms of consent - not in terms of preference. To formulate an adequate condition the framework needs to expand from collective choice rules (which only take information about preferences as input) to rights-based social choice rules (which also take as input information about which options have been consented to and which would violate someone's rights). I formulate a more adequate liberty condition based on the notion of consent that is acceptable to liberals, and then show that Pareto optimality is incompatible even with that condition. I then show how the liberty condition can be weakened in a plausible manner, and describe an interesting class of theories - rights-based Paretian theories - that satisfy the Pareto optimality requirement while being sensitive to liberty considerations.     

“竞合”理论的帕累托效应研究

企业竞争战略理论已经进入了合作竞争时代.为了揭示竞合理论的形成及其特性,通过运用博弈理论的分析方法,文章剖析了竞合理论形成的博弈机制,并得出了这种博弈机制不仅能满足企业追求利润最大化的要求,而且也符合整个社会的帕累托原则.     

城乡协调发展:理论与实证的分析——以黑龙江省为案例的讨论

在当前建设社会主义新农村目标提出之际,回顾以往关于城乡协调发展理论的讨论,我们需要深思:城乡协调发展的实质究竟是什么?正本清源,卡尔多改进作为城乡协调发展的实质,而建立收益——成本评估机制以期实现改进成本的最小化则成为必须要关注的内容。以城乡产业差异为主要对象的卡尔多改进的优化路径为通过农村中的产业化发展模式,实现增加非农产业人口、减少农业人口。文中以黑龙江省为案例展开了详细的讨论。     

情势变更原则的理论超越与完善

国内学界对情势变更原则的研究,并未超越史尚宽在50年前取得的成果,其研究思路仍局限在法学内部,即从衡平理念出发,围绕情势变更原则有效衡平合同当事人权利义务的作用而论证其存在意义。其实,根据经济学帕累托效率原理,在埃奇沃斯无差异曲线盒形模型中对情势变更原则的理论基础进行分析,可以看出情势更原则不仅在衡平合同当事人权益上发挥作用,更重要的是,其本身具有促进整个社会资源优化配置的经济意义。此外,学界关于情势变更原则适用条件等传统理论,存在诸多谬误,有必要进一步完善和明确。     

计算机辅助扩充频率法

本文基于Nyquest稳定性准则和扩充频率法,对含有滞后环节的被控对象的系统,提出一个能在微型计算机上实现的、能进行比例、比例加积分(和加微分)的整定参数计算的计算机辅助设计算法.本法使用了寻优技术,能快速求得结果.     

中国电信资费规制制度变迁的帕累托改进

本文对建国以来中国电信资费的规制制度进行四个阶段的划分,总结了每个阶段的资费政策和资费内容以及用户规模的发展。从实证数据上分析了每个阶段中国电信企业的经济效益,计算了电信用户每个阶段末期的固定通信和移动通信资费的市场平均价格,并对规制机构进行了管制成本趋势分析。得出了中国电信企业、电信用户和规制机构的利益在规制制度变迁中是保持增长的结论,中国电信资费的规制制度变迁是属于帕累托改进的,它不仅激励了电信企业的竞争与发展,提高了电信用户的利益,而且降低了政府实行管制的成本,有利于实现全社会福利最大化。     

A hierarchical model for extreme wind speeds

Summary.  A typical extreme value analysis is often carried out on the basis of simplistic inferential procedures, though the data being analysed may be structurally complex. Here we develop a hierarchical model for hourly gust maximum wind speed data, which attempts to identify site and seasonal effects for the marginal densities of hourly maxima, as well as for the serial dependence at each location. A Gaussian model for the random effects exploits the meteorological structure in the data, enabling increased precision for inferences at individual sites and in individual seasons. The Bayesian framework that is adopted is also exploited to obtain predictive return level estimates at each site, which incorporate uncertainty due to model estimation, as well as the randomness that is inherent in the processes that are involved.     

A robust prediction error criterion for pareto modelling of upper tails

Estimation of the Pareto tail index from extreme order statistics is an important problem in many settings. The upper tail of the distribution, where data are sparse, is typically fitted with a model, such as the Pareto model, from which quantities such as probabilities associated with extreme events are deduced. The success of this procedure relies heavily not only on the choice of the estimator for the Pareto tail index but also on the procedure used to determine the number k of extreme order statistics that are used for the estimation. The authors develop a robust prediction error criterion for choosing k and estimating the Pareto index. A Monte Carlo study shows the good performance of the new estimator and the analysis of real data sets illustrates that a robust procedure for selection, and not just for estimation, is needed.     

On additive and multiplicative damage models and the characterizations of linear and logarithmic exponential families

Rao (1963) has formulated a damage model which we call an additive damage model. A suitable damage model, which we call a multiplicative damage model, has been considered by Krishnaji (1970) for income-related problems. In these models, an original observation is subjected to damage, e.g., death or under-reporting, according to a specified probability law. Within the framework of an additive damage model, with a special form of damage, characterizations of the linear and logarithmic exponential families are formulated using regression properties of the damaged part on the undamaged part. The characterizations of the gamma and Pareto distributions that have been found of some use in the theory of income distributions, are obtained as special cases. Similar results are investigated within the framework of the multiplicative damage model.