“Risk Society”: The Cult of Theory and the Millennium?

The relation between theory and empirical data in sociology and social policy is explored through a critique of Ulrich Beck's influential book, Risk Society . Consideration is given to the extent to which a book that purports to describe contemporary societies in general is actually rooted in the unique circumstances of postwar Germany. The various arguments of Risk Society are reviewed and tested against relevant empirical reports from England. Many of the historical and contemporary generalizations made by Beck are shown to be questionable. The conclusion reflects on the popularity of the genre in which Beck is working and questions the consistent glumness of its attitude to contemporary societies—whether those of the 1890s or the 1990s. The new millennium might be a time for a new spirit and the rejection of the nostalgia and conservatism of humanities-oriented scholarship.     

Risk Perception, Federal Spending, and the Savannah River Site: Attitudes of Hunters and Fishermen

This paper examines the attitudes of 285 hunters and fishermen from South Carolina about hunting and fishing, risk, environmental issues, and future land use of the Savannah River Site. We test the null hypothesis that there is no difference in hunting and fishing rates, attitudes toward the safety of fish and deer obtained from SRS, attitudes toward future land use at SRS, and perceptions of the severity of environmental problems as a function of how far respondents lived from the site. Respondents hunted or fished an average of over 40 days a year, and only half felt that the fish and deer from SRS were safe to eat. Willingness to expend federal funds was correlated with perceptions of the severity of the problem. Preferences for future land use at SRS fell into three categories: high (environmental research park, hunting, fishing, camping), medium (nuclear production, factories, preserve only), and low (nuclear waste storage, residential). There were no differences in hunting and fishing rates, ranking of the severity of environmental problems, and willingness to expend federal funds as a function of distance of residence from SRS, but attitudes toward future land use differed significantly as a function of location of residence. Those living close to SRS were more willing to have the site used for factories, residential, nuclear material production and to store nuclear wastes than those living farther from the site. Our data on recreational rates, attitudes toward future land use, and willingness to expend federal funds to solve environmental problems reiterate the importance of assessing stakeholder attitudes toward decisions regarding future land use at DOE sites     

Gender differences in risk behaviour in financial decision-making: An experimental analysis

This paper examines whether gender differences in risk propensity and strategy in financial decision-making can be viewed as general traits, or whether they arise because of context factors. It presents the results of two computerised laboratory experiments designed to examine whether differences in risk preference and decision strategies are explained by the framing of tasks and level of task familiarity to subjects. The results show that females are less risk seeking than males irrespective of familiarity and framing, costs or ambiguity. The results also indicate that males and females adopt different strategies in financial decision environments but that these strategies have no significant impact on ability to perform. Because strategies are more easily observed than either risk preference or outcomes in day to day decisions, strategy differences may reinforce stereotypical beliefs that females are less able financial managers.     

Tobacco—the importance of relevant information on risk

Summary. Although it has been widely accepted since the 1960s that smoking cigarettes carries a substantial health risk, worldwide mortality from tobacco-related diseases is increasing rapidly at the beginning of the 21st century. To provide the motivation to control this epidemic there is a continuing and pressing need for information on the risks of tobacco consumption that is accurate, up to date, locally relevant and imaginatively presented.     

金融风险度量VaR与CVaR方法的比较研究及应用

风险价值(VaR)是近年来受到国际金融界的广泛支持和认可的一种度量金融风险的工具。文章指出了风险价值(VaR)模型两个重大的缺陷,并对它和条件风险价值(CVaR)金融风险度量模型进行了详细的介绍和对比分析,给出了它们的共同点和CVaR在投资组合应用中的优势,结合中国金融市场的实际情况,指出CvaR在中国金融市场中应用应注意的问题,对其应用前景提出了新的思路。     

农户在风险和不确定环境中决策的定量分析

在市场竞争日益激烈的今天,农户们几乎每天都面临结果不确定的情况。本文用定量的方法分析了农户主对付风险和不确定性环境的态度和目标,作出了一个包括收益变动率的边际分析模型,提出了农户对付风险和不确定性的一些对策。     

Evaluating Risk Communications: Completing and Correcting Mental Models of Hazardous Processes, Part II

We propose a decision-analytic framework, called the mental models approach , for evaluating the impact of risk communications. It employs multiple evaluation methods, including think-aloud protocol analysis, problem solving, and a true-false test that allows respondents to express uncertainty about their answers. The approach is illustrated in empirical comparisons of three brochures about indoor radon.     

Polarization in the Reaction to Health‐Risk Information: A Question of Social Position?

Dissemination of risk information is ubiquitous in contemporary society. We explore how individuals react in everyday life to health-risk information, based on what they report in personal interviews. Health-risk information was without exception recognized as unstable and inconsistent. This conformity, however, did not extend to the narratives regarding how health-risk information should be handled. Two opposite positions (ideal-typical strategies) are presented. Either you tend to process and evaluate new information or you tend to ignore it as a whole. Our attempt to reveal the underlying rationality in these two very different approaches involved the exploration of three different avenues of interpretation and brings together two scientific paradigms--economics and sociology--that provide the framework for our analysis. First, we suggest that a greater long-term experience of explicit choice implies that this kind of action becomes more natural and less resource consuming, whereas a reliance on habits in daily life--a natural adjustment to a lack of resources--makes it is more costly to bother about new information. Second, with fewer resources in the short run, fewer opportunities to mitigate bad outcomes, and greater exposure to social and material risks, one is less likely to devote resources to deal with health-risk information. Third, there are several possible links between a low propensity to take account of risk information and a high relative importance of genuine uncertainty in one's life. These theoretical perspectives provide a viable set of hypotheses regarding mechanisms that may contribute to social differences in the response to health-risk information.     

An Approach to Assessing the Impacts of Incident-Free Transportation of Radioactive Materials: II. Highway Transportation

Annual radiation doses and risks to the public living near, and traveling on, public highways, and occupational doses are calculated for highway shipments of radioactive materials under accident-free and incident-free conditions (i.e., under normal transportation conditions). The database developed by Sandia National Laboratories is used, and calculations are made using RADTRAN 4.0. This report is one of two reports estimating radiological risk associated with transportation of radioactive materials.     

美国商业方法专利质量问题分析及对我国的启示

分析了产生商业方法专利质量问题的原因，介绍了美国《商业方法专利促进法》对于解决这一问题提出的方案，最后结合我国国情，指出我国采取商业方法专利保护模式的必要性并分析了在确立专利审查标准时需考虑的因素。