Auditors' Assessment of Management's Disposition: An Attributional Analysis*

Auditors' assessment of management's dispositions presumably affects their subsequent judgments. However, little is known about the process by which auditors infer characteristics of management. This paper proposes the theory of correspondent inferences [25] as a framework for examining auditors' assessment of management's dispositions; the model is tested in a laboratory experiment using experienced audit managers. The results are consistent with the proposed theoretical framework. Implications for future research are discussed.     

Gender differences in risk behavior and the link to household effects and individual wealth

This study examined the differences in risk behavior between men and women using a household survey that captured the risk preferences of two members in a household and recorded wealth at the individual level instead of the usual approach of representing wealth at the household level. After controlling for commonly used explanatory variables, such as gender, education, age, and wealth, household fixed effects explain about 15% of the variation in risk behavior. This highlights the magnitude of household effects in shaping one’s risk behavior. In general, females in the study area are more risk averse than males based on a risk game with real payout. The gender differences disappear when focusing on only the top land owners. However, even in those cases, females consider themselves more risk averse, supporting results from previous studies that link culture and societal norms to the gender differences in risk behavior.     

The experiences of privately practising midwives in Australia who have been reported to the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency: A qualitative study

BackgroundIn Australia the majority of homebirths are attended by privately practising midwives (PPMs). In recent years PPMs have been increasingly reported to the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency (AHPRA) mostly by other health professionals.Purposeto explore the experiences of PPMs in Australia who have been reported to the AHPRA.MethodsA qualitative interpretive approach, employing in-depth interviews with eight PPMs was undertaken and analysed using thematic analysis. A feminist theoretical framework was used to underpin the research.ResultsThe majority of reports made to AHPRA occurred when midwives supported women who chose care considered outside the recommended Australian College of Midwives (ACM) Consultation and Referral Guidelines. During data analysis an overarching theme emerged, “Caught between women and the system”, which described the participants’ feelings of working as a PPM in Australia. There were six themes and several sub-themes: The suppression of midwifery, A flawed system, Lack of support, Devastation on so many levels, Making changes in the aftermath and Walking a tight rope forever. The findings from this study reveal that midwives who are under investigation suffer from emotional and psychological distress. Understanding the effects of the process of investigation is important to improve the quality of professional and personal support available to PPMs who are reported to AHPRA and to streamline processes.ConclusionIt is becoming increasingly difficult for PPMs to support the wishes and needs of individual women and also meet the requirements of the regulators, as well as the increasingly risk averse health service.     

Pearson-Tukey Three-Point Approximations Versus Monte Carlo Simulation

Accuracy of the Pearson-Tukey three-point approximation is measured in units of standard deviation and compared with that of Monte Carlo simulation. Using a variety of well-known distributions, comparisons are made for the mean of a random variable and for common functions of one and two random variables. Comparisons are also made for the mean of an assortment of risk-analysis (Monte Carlo) models drawn from the literature. The results suggest that the Pearson-Tukey approximation is a useful alternative to simulation in risk-analysis situations.     

基于高维波动率网络模型的股票市场风险特征研究

波动率是金融风险管理研究的重要内容之一。本文基于复杂网络理论和数据挖掘技术提出股票市场的高维波动率网络模型。首先运用互信息度量不同股票价格波动之间的相关关系,其次对股票市场不同周期下的波动情况建立度的中心势、平均距离、幂律分布等网络拓扑指标,再次根据这些指标利用Prim算法构建出高维波动率网络模型,最后运用Newman-Girvan算法对股票价格波动率的相关性进行分层研究。高维波动率网络模型突破了传统波动率模型关于变量维数的限制,能够在依赖少量假设的基础上,挖掘出多个金融市场主体间的相互关系,反映金融市场的风险特征及网络拓扑性质。实证结果发现：与常用的Pearson相关系数法相比,在互信息框架下,股价波动的非线性相关关系得到了更好的度量;股票市场的整体波动性与个股波动率相关性变化趋势相反,市场处在高波动时期资产组合分散化效果较好;网络中存在少量度数大的关键节点和中心节点,风险通过这些节点可以迅速传递到整个市场;股票市场的运行具有明显的行业聚集现象;网络分层研究进一步直观的展现了风险在层与层之间的传递规律和与之对应的行业特征。高维波动率网络模型为挖掘股票市场的风险特征与管理金融风险提供了一个新的工具。     

‘Scarier than another storm’: values at risk in the mapping and insuring of US floodplains

How do people respond to the ways in which insurance mediates environmental risks? Socio‐cultural risk research has characterized and analyzed the experiential dimension of risk, but has yet to focus on insurance, which is a key institution shaping how people understand and relate to risk. Insurance not only assesses and communicates risk; it also economizes it, making the problem on the ground not just one of risk, but also of value. This article addresses these issues with an investigation of the social life of the flood insurance rate map, the central technology of the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), as it grafts a new landscape of ‘value at risk’ onto the physical and social world of New York City in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Like other risk technologies, ubiquitous in modern societies as decision‐making and planning tools, the map disseminates information about value and risk in order to tame uncertainty and enable prudent action oriented toward the future. However, drawing together interview, ethnographic, and documentary data, I find that for its users on the ground, the map does not simply measure ‘value at risk’ in ways that produce clear strategies for protecting property values from flooding. Instead, it puts values‐beyond simply the financial worth of places‐at risk, as well as implicates past, present, and future risks beyond simply flooding. By informing and enlarging the stakes of what needs protecting, and from what, I argue that plural and interacting ‘values at risk’ shape how people live with and respond to environmental risks that are mediated by insurance technologies.     

A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL

In the 1967 Harvard-Cornell football game, Harvard was ahead 14–0 late in the game when Cornell scored two touchdowns. On both occasions, Cornell tried and failed on the two-point conversion attempt and lost the game 14–12. Postgame arguments were divided on the merits of Cornell's strategy. For this frequently occurring scenario in college football, we derive a maximum expected utility decision rule for the decision of kicking versus running/passing based on the relative utility of a win, a tie, or a loss and the probabilities of success with a kick as opposed to a run/pass.     

COST-VOLUME-PROFIT ANALYSIS IN STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING MODELS

This paper applies mathematical programming to cost-volume-profit (CVP) analysis under contribution margin uncertainty. Three CVP probabilistic chance-constraint models based on various safety-first criteria for decisions under uncertainty are presented and compared. It is shown that a break-even segment of the mean-standard deviation frontier is a set of optimal solutions for the proposed models. An operational parametric quadratic programming (QP) model is constructed, and the efficiency frontier is generated. The procedures for locating an optimal solution on the efficiency frontier are then presented. The recommended QP procedure offers both technical relief from the computational difficulties posed by the probabilistic constraints and a desired flexibility in generating and presenting the relevant information for decisions under uncertainty.     

银行监管、风险承担与公司价值

商业银行具有脆弱性和负外部性等特征,再考虑到信息不对称和众多中小债权人存在,政府便伸出援助之手对银行进行广泛监管,以免银行出现过度风险承担行为从而危及整个经济体运转。银行监管旨在限制银行机构风险、维持银行体系安全,但同时亦应有助于提升银行公司价值、提高金融和经济效率。本文着重分析了主要监管措施对银行风险承担和公司价值的影响,试图总结出各项监管措施的有效性。通过多国截面数据的实证模型我们发现,信息披露是激励相容的,资本充足要求和银行安全网有利于降低风险承担却不利于公司价值,而市场准入正好相反,监管权力、业务限制对两者均有反面影响。