Worries of the poor: The impact of financial burden on the risk attitudes of micro-entrepreneurs

We randomly expose the owners of small retail businesses in Vietnam to scenarios that trigger financial worries and study the effect of this intervention on risk attitudes using an incentive-compatible elicitation method. We find that entrepreneurs exposed to financial worries behave less risk-averse than those assigned to a placebo treatment. This effect is stronger for owners of shops which are smaller and those less exposed to large income shocks in their everyday business. We further show that the effect of financial worries on risk attitudes is not explained by changes in the cognitive functioning of the treated. The findings are consistent with previous results from laboratory experiments with students in developed countries. As such, the paper provides evidence for the external validity of these findings in the context of micro-entrepreneurship in a developing country and points to financial worries as one understudied psychological channel for the effect of material deprivation on decision-making.     

Exploring differences in crisis literacy and efficacy on behavioral responses during infectious disease outbreaks

This study examined the effects of literacy and efficacy on individuals’ protective action taking and information seeking during the early phase of infectious disease outbreaks through a nationally representative survey of 1164 U.S. adults. New measures of disaster literacy and crisis efficacy were tested. Overall, results revealed that crisis efficacy and organizational efficacy drove protective action taking and information seeking intentions, while health literacy did not. Disaster literacy negatively predicted both protective action advice seeking and information seeking. The findings highlight the importance of strengthening public efficacy and improving relationships between health authorities and the public, which is greatly influenced by the public’s confidence in the health authority’s management of the crisis.     

Risk and protective factors in problem gambling: an examination of psychological resilience

Psychological resilience – successful adaptation when faced with adversity – is a product of the balance of risk and protective factors relevant to an outcome. This study examined if protective factors (perceived resilience; mindfulness; grit; self-efficacy) explained variance in problem gambling tendencies (assessed with the Problem Gambling Severity Index) beyond the HEXACO personality traits (honesty-humility, emotionality, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, openness to experience) and risk factors for problem gambling (gender; age; socio-economic status; high frequency gambling behaviour; harsh unpredictable childhood environments; sensation-seeking; impulsivity; self-control; stress). This study used a crowdsourced community sample (n = 469) recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk. Bivariate analyses showed that risk factors and some HEXACO traits (especially honesty-humility) were associated with problem gambling issues. Among protective factors, only trait mindfulness showed a bivariate association with problem gambling issues. Somewhat surprisingly, regression analyses revealed that protective factors did not explain variance in problem gambling beyond HEXACO traits and risk factors. However, in exploratory analyses, mindfulness and self-efficacy – both modifiable protective factors – moderated the relationship between high-frequency gambling (a key proximate antecedent of problem gambling) and problem gambling tendencies. These results suggest mindfulness and self-efficacy may serve as ‘buffers’ against the development of problem gambling issues and may be promising targets for clinical interventions.     

Replication: Belief elicitation with quadratic and binarized scoring rules

Researchers increasingly elicit beliefs to understand the underlying motivations of decision makers. Two commonly used methods are the quadratic scoring rule (QSR) and the binarized scoring rule (BSR). Hossain and Okui (2013) use a within-subject design to evaluate the performance of these two methods in an environment where subjects report probabilistic beliefs over binary outcomes with objective probabilities. In a near replication of their study, we show that their results continue to hold with a between-subject design. This is an important validation of the BSR given that researchers typically implement only one method to elicit beliefs. In favor of the BSR, reported beliefs are less accurate under the QSR than the BSR. Consistent with theoretical predictions, risk-averse subjects distort their reported beliefs under the QSR.     

How to reconsider risk management in SMEs? An Advanced,Reasoned and Organised Literature Review

The purpose of this paper is two-fold: to reconsider the fundamental role of risk management (RM) in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) by identifying and critically analysing the most important international works; and to define opportunities for further studies by suggesting a different approach to study the topic. This research is based on a new hybrid method developed by the authors, called Advanced, Reasoned and Organised (ARO) literature review, which improves the quality of literature reviews by integrating the systematic review for quantitative papers, the meta-synthesis for qualitative research and the critical interpretative analysis. Forty-eight articles were included in the literature review. Bibliometric and cluster analyses were carried out. Two hypotheses were applied as filters in the interpretative synthesis of the content and guided the analysis to answer two research questions. The findings underline that RM in SMEs is still a ‘spot’ subject as they put little effort into the risk identification, assessment and monitoring. The lack of procedures and strategies is due to the lack of risk mindfulness and knowledge, and it is related to the managers’ and owners’ risk attitudes. It is fundamental to understand why risk procedures are not implemented and to find a way to raise awareness of the potential benefits of risk and control measures. The topic is current, and the multidisciplinary perspective and mixed-method approach enhance both theoretical and practical contributions for academics and SME owners.     

风险社会下的抽象危险犯及其界域

风险社会催生了"安全刑法","安全刑法"以抽象危险犯为核心内容。然而抽象危险犯在立法实践中的大量应用遭到了传统刑法理论的质疑,因而有必要廓清抽象危险犯在理论和实践中的界域,以缓和理论上的冲突,增强实践上的操作性,进而使刑法对风险社会的介入更具妥当性。     

农业信贷与保险互联影响农户风险配给实证研究———基于江苏、湖北两省的调研数据

改善农户信贷配给、提高农户信贷获得性是农村金融改革的目标.首先阐述农业信贷与保险互联这种金融创新的国内外经验,其次构建了抵押品替代与个体声誉信号传递博弈分析框架,采用江苏、湖北两省的农户调研数据,实证检验了“农业信贷+人身意外险+政策性再保险+财政保费补贴冶的信贷与保险互联模式,结果表明:其能够有效改善农户风险配给,提高农户获得信贷的概率.     

宗教参与对我国高龄老人死亡风险的影响分析

根据中国高龄老人健康长寿跟踪调查数据(1998～2005年),利用Cox比例风险模型考察宗教参与对高龄老人死亡风险的影响机制,深入分析人口学特征、肌体健康、心理健康、健康行为及社会经济支持这五类因素在宗教参与和死亡风险关系中的交互作用,以此对西方文献中相关的4种理论模型进行实证检验。结果表明,宗教参与对死亡风险存在一定程度的影响,但是控制其他因素则会削弱这种影响,其中肌体健康因素所代表的"替代性机制"能够将两者关系的显著作用完全消除。     

HIV Risk Among Men Who Have Sex with Men Only (MSMO) and Men Who Have Sex with Men and Women (MSMW) in Baltimore

Men who have sex with men and women (MSMW) are at high risk for HIV. However, the majority of research on populations of men who have sex with men (MSM) combines MSMW and men who have sex with men only (MSMO) samples, which limits our understanding of HIV risk behaviors and factors associated with HIV risk among MSMW populations. We used the BESURE-MSM2, a venue-based cross-sectional study of HIV risk behaviors among MSM in Baltimore, MD, to examine HIV risk among MSMW. MSMW were less likely to report unprotected receptive anal intercourse than MSMO (6.8% vs. 19.6%, p = .0024). Among MSMW, 43.0% reported unprotected sex with a woman in the past year, but only 19.4% reported unprotected sex with both men and women, representing only 5.0% of the total MSM sample. In multivariate analyses, we found that among MSMW having unprotected sex with women in the past year, disclosing same sex behavior and having a main female partner were associated with unprotected anal intercourse with male partners. HIV prevention programs for MSMW are needed that address the complex partnerships of MSMW and the social contextual factors within which relationships and behaviors are embedded.     

Improving the estimators of the parameters of a probit regression model: A ridge regression approach

This paper considered the estimation of the regression parameters of a general probit regression model. Accordingly, we proposed five ridge regression (RR) estimators for the probit regression models for estimating the parameters (β)$(\beta )$ when the weighted design matrix is ill-conditioned and it is suspected that the parameter β$\beta$ may belong to a linear subspace defined by Hβ=h$H\beta =h$. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are studied with respect to quadratic biases, MSE matrices and quadratic risks. The regions of optimality of the proposed estimators are determined based on the quadratic risks. Some relative efficiency tables and risk graphs are provided to illustrate the numerical comparison of the estimators. We conclude that when q≥3$q\ge 3$, one would uses PRRRE; otherwise one uses PTRRE with some optimum size α$\alpha$. We also discuss the performance of the proposed estimators compare to the alternative ridge regression method due to Liu (1993).