中国在中东的风险分析:以海湾地区为例

极具地缘战略价值的中东特别是海湾地区是中国"大周边"战略的重要组成部分。中国在中东存在政治、经济、贸易、安全、文化等多方面利益。在"无政府状态"的国际体系中,中国获取中东利益时面临外部较为严峻的挑战。因此,在纷争四起、矛盾错综复杂的中东,中国需要具备强烈的风险意识,对其认知必须充分,分析必须深入,规避务必得当,以期把预期风险化解到最小,也只有这样,中国才能比较顺利地实现自己在中东尤其是海湾地区的利益最大化。     

建立西部地区旅游业风险投资机制的探讨

发展旅游业风险投资是西部地区实现区域经济大发展战略的必然选择,也是解决我国西部地区旅游项目开发融资难的一条有效途径．更重要的是有利于推动西部地区旅游资源的优化配置,改善西北地区旅游业的产业结构。为此,政府必须尽快建立我国西部地区旅游业的风险投资机制。首先,要更新思想观念,拓宽投融资思路．开拓融资市场,树立风险意识。其次,健全旅游业风险投资退出和进入机制．还要建立严格的旅游风险投资监管机制。最后,制定鼓励风险投资向旅游业的政策和地方法规。     

熵权双基点法在武器装备研制风险评估中的应用

基于某武器装备研制项目的风险评估数据,通过熵权双基点法对技术、计划、保障性、进度、费用风险进行评估、排序,克服了传统评价方法中主观确定权重的缺陷,为指导项目风险管理提供了科学依据。     

REFINEMENTS IN THE ISMAIL-LOUDERBACK STOCHASTIC CVP MODEL*

This paper presents results concerning the Ismail-Louderback stochastic cost-volume-profit model. For the case where demand is normally distributed, an analytic expression for the output that maximizes the probability of achieving specified profits is obtained and a new procedure for determining the output that maximizes the profits, given a target level of probability of their being achieved, is developed. If opportunity costs of lost sales are zero, then analytic expressions for both the above outputs are obtained for any demand distribution.     

Dissemination as success: Local emergency management communication practices

Local emergency managers are charged by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to increase the number of community members with emergency plans and kits. This outcome remains unrealized in part based upon in-depth interviews with 37 emergency managers in eight states revealing that emergency managers conceptualize communication as dissemination rather than as a process of research and evaluation. This study calls for local emergency managers to conduct outcome evaluations of risk communication campaigns to increase public participation.     

HIV seroprevalence and risk behaviors among clients attending tuberculosis clinics in Miami-Dade County,Florida, 1989–1996

Miami-Dade County is a major HIV epicenter and a port of entry for immigrants from nations with high endemic rates of tuberculosis (TB). We analyzed data from an unlinked (blinded) serosurvey of clients attending four Miami TB clinics to elucidate the dynamic HIV seroprevalence patterns in relation to demographics and risk behaviors. Data were analyzed from 3,107 consecutive TB patients at four TB treatment clinics over eight years. Overall HIV seroprevalence was 23.6% with a significantly higher infection rate for men (26.6%) compared to women (17.3%) (p < 0.0001). In rank order, the HIV infection rates were 30.3% for black non-Hispanics, 24.7% for white non-Hispanics and 14.2% for Hispanics. U.S.-born clients had significantly higher HIV rates compared with foreign-born clients (32.4% vs. 18.5%, p < 0.0001). HIV rates declined over six years from (32.5% to 15.9%, p < 0.0001) with significant trends observed for men and women; and for blacks, whites and Hispanics. Seroprevalence was 15.7% for clients identifying heterosexual contact as their only risk. Highly significant increases in seroprevalence above this heterosexual-contact-only `baseline', were found for clients disclosing the following high-risk behaviors: male-to-male sex, drug injection, smoking crack cocaine, receiving or giving money/drugs for sex, and sexual contact with a drug injector or HIV-infected partner. While highly significant elevations in HIV seroprevalence were associated with each of these definitive risk behaviors, even the baseline HIV infection rate of 15.7% in heterosexual-contact-only clients was markedly higher than that of the general population. These findings underscore the need to obtain routine HIV serology on all TB patients.     

Documenting risk: A comparison of policy and information pamphlets for using epidural or water in labour

BackgroundApproximately 30% of Australian women use epidural analgesia for pain relief in labour, and its use is increasing. While epidural analgesia is considered a safe option from an anaesthetic point of view, its use transfers a labouring woman out of the category of ‘normal’ labour and increases her risk of intervention. Judicious use of epidural may be beneficial in particular situations, but its current common use needs to be assessed more closely. This has not yet been explored in the Australian context.AimTo examine personal, social, institutional and cultural influences on women in their decision to use epidural analgesia in labour. Examining this one event in depth illuminates other birth practices, which can also be analysed according to how they fit within prevailing cultural beliefs about birth.MethodsEthnography, underpinned by a critical medical anthropology methodology.ResultsThese findings describe the influence of risk culture on labour ward practice; specifically, the policies and practices surrounding the use of epidural analgesia are contrasted with those on the use of water. Engaging with current risk theory, we identify the role of power in conceptualisations of risk, which are commonly perpetuated by authority rather than evidence.ConclusionsAs we move towards a risk-driven society, it is vital to identify both the conception and the consequences of promulgations of risk. The construction of waterbirth as a ‘risky’ practice had the effect of limiting midwifery practice and women's choices, despite evidence that points to the epidural as the more ‘dangerous’ option.     

Changing attitudes to risk at older ages: The role of health and other life events

This paper investigates risk attitudes at older ages in 14 European countries. Older individuals report lower willingness to take risks in all countries. Using panel data we are able to show that this relationship between financial risk attitudes and age is not due to cohort effects or selective mortality. We also show that key mechanisms driving this change with age are health changes and other life events – in our preferred specification around half of the overall evolution of risk attitudes with age can be explained by health shocks, retirement, and widowhood or marital change that occur increasingly frequently as individuals age. These life-events are a particularly important explanation of the evolution of risk attitudes for women.     

Communicating about infectious disease threats: Insights from public health information officers

The public health communication challenges that arise in times of infectious disease threats (IDTs) were examined using the Risk Amplification through Media Spread (RAMS) Framework and in-depth phone interviews with 40 national, state, and local public health information officers (PIOs). Interviewees shared their experiences and insights related to how IDTs are communicated to the public, including the different types of traditional and social media used, how they develop and assess IDT messages, and their perceptions regarding the IDT risk amplification process. Theoretical and practical implications for health public relations and public health communication are discussed.