On the Use of Buy Up as a Model of Customer Choice in Revenue Management

We consider settings in which a revenue manager controls bookings over a sequence of flights. The revenue manager uses a buy‐up model to select booking limits and updates estimates of the model parameters as data are accumulated. The buy‐up model we consider is based upon a simple model of customer choice, wherein each low‐fare customer who is not able to purchase a low‐fare ticket will, with a fixed probability, “buy up” to the high fare, independent of everything else. We analyze the evolution of the parameter estimates (e.g., the buy‐up probability) and chosen booking limits in situations where the buy‐up model is misspecified, that is, in situations where there is no setting of its parameters for which its objective function gives an accurate representation of expected revenue as a function of the booking limit. The analysis is motivated by the common situation in which a revenue manager does not know precisely how customers behave but nevertheless uses a parametric model to make decisions. Under some assumptions, we prove that the booking limits and parameter estimates converge and we compare the actual expected revenue at the limiting values with that associated with the booking limits that would be chosen if the revenue manager knew the actual behavior of customers. The analysis shows that the buy‐up model often works reasonably well even when it is misspecified, and also reveals the importance of understanding how parameter estimates of misspecified models vary as functions of decisions.     

百越古道的文化遗存和文化线路

文章论述了百越古道的文化资源,对百越古道定名的缘由及其文化线路进行了阐述,对打造百越古道提出了建议。     

乡村社区公共品供给模式变迁:历史断裂与接合——基于乡村秩序演进的理论视角

乡村秩序与乡村社区公共品供给密切相关.在乡村秩序形态的演进中形成了不同的村社公共品供给模式,在传统乡村社会,内生秩序占主导的乡村社会形态形成了村社自足的公共品供给模式.而新中国建立后至税费改革前,外生秩序占主导的乡村社会形态形成了国家统合的公共品供给模式.时至当下后税费时代,乡村社会外生、内生秩序出现了双向并弱的态势,造成了公共品供给的困境.由此,必须重塑乡村社会秩序,并通过国家与村社的有效接合.     

农村“宗教热”原因探究：宗教社会风险假说

基于宗教理性选择理论,提出宗教风险假说,认为风险以及风险应对能力是人们做出宗教选择的一个重要因素。从市场经济、贫困和弱势群体等角度,根据作者调查数据、国家统计数据以及其他全国和局部调查数据,对上述假设进行了检验。结果表明:(1)市场经济中的宗教需求要高于计划经济;(2)市场经济越发达的地区,信教密度就越高;(3)弱势群体的宗教需求要高于强势群体。这些结果证明了宗教风险假说的合理性。最后依据该假说,提出针对当前农村"宗教热"政策建议主要有两点:(1)降低农村人口所面临的风险;(2)提高其应对风险的能力。     

大学生思想政治教育精细化现状及路径探析

精细化日益成为提高大学生思想政治教育实效性一种有效途径。进一步探讨大学生思想政治教育精细化的内涵,分析大学生思想政治教育精细化时代诉求,以调查数据为依据,分析福建高校大学生思想政治教育精细化现状,并从思想政治教育精细化运行过程、运行机制、运行载体、执行保障等方面提出大学生思想政治教育精细化实现途径,以期进一步提升大学生思想政治教育的针对性和实效性,促进大学生的全面发展。     

淮安市老年人养老模式选择意愿实证分析

以淮安市869例老人的问卷调查数据为依据,运用Logistic模型对淮安市老年人养老模式的选择意愿进行了实证分析.研究发现:年龄、性别、文化程度、健康状况对养老方式的选择没有显著影响,而婚姻状况、家庭类型、居住地、月收入和最担心的问题有显著影响.     

自由职业者面临的问题及社会工作介入路径与目标选择

自由职业者是新的社会阶层的重要组成部分，他们作为改革开放以后社会主义市场经济发展的产物，呈现快速增长的态势，在经济社会中的作用越来越突出的同时，也面临着来自各方面的巨大压力。根据这一社会群体流动性大、组织化程度低、社会生活边缘化倾向等特点，社会工作应该有针对性的调整介入路径，尤其是做出正确的工作目标选择，以帮助他们解决生活和工作中的实际问题，促进社会和谐发展。     

制度与经济增长:一个数理模型分析

将制度引入内生经济增长模型,从消费者效用最大化出发,构建了一个包含资本、劳动、技术和制度的经济增长模型,分析了制度质量对经济增长过程中均衡点的存在性影响.模型的结论是:良好的制度质量可以使得经济中存在正的均衡点;可以提高人均产出增长率和总体经济增长率,加快经济增长,从而可以解释后发优势现象.反之,不好的制度使得经济系统中无法肯定地得到正的均衡点,使得人均产出增长率和总体经济增长率出现负增长,从而可以解释一个富裕的国家亦可以变穷现象,即制度的逆转.     

Using Choice Experiments to Assess People''s Preferences for Railway Transports of Hazardous Materials

This article investigates whether the choice experiment approach can be used to assess people's preferences and the determinants of these preferences in order to estimate the costs and benefits of different configurations of the transport of hazardous materials by rail. Changes in the exposure to hazardous materials that people are subjected to are used rather than changes in accident risk. To the best knowledge of the author, this has not been done before in a study of people's preferences toward hazardous materials. A mail survey, carried out in two cities in Sweden, is used to obtain tentative estimates of the willingness to pay for a reduction in exposure as well as the willingness to accept an increase in exposure. Special attention is given to viability, since the complexity of the activity studied, transport of hazardous materials, and the method used pose particular challenges. The response rate and tests of validity and consistency indicate that this method can be applied. Moreover, the results suggest that studies of this kind may provide guidance on changes in the transport of hazardous materials, especially because policymakers may influence the attributes presented here. Referring to the exposure of hazardous materials highlights the importance of providing the respondents with adequate information regarding hazardous transports. An important finding is that the amount of background information may have some effect on the stated preferences.     

Revealed Preference and Expected Utility

This essay gives necessary and sufficient conditions for recovering expected utility from choice behavior in several popular models of uncertainty. In particular, these techniques handle a finite state model; a model for which the choice space consists of probability densities and the expected utility representation requires bounded, measurable utility; and a model for which the choice space consists of Borel probability measures and the expected utility representation requires bounded, continuous utility. The key result is the identification of the continuity condition necessary for the revelation of linear utility.