Statistical Analysis of General Degradation Path Model and Failure Time Data with Multiple Failure Modes

ABSTRACT

This article considers degradation and failure time models with multiple failure modes which used to study the problem of longevity and aging in survival analysis and reliability. Degradation process is modeled using general nonparametric, nonlinear path models. Semi-parametric models for the intensities of the traumatic failures are used supposing that these intensities depend on degradation level. Semi-parametric estimators of various reliability characteristics are proposed and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. The theoretical results are illustrated using simulated data.     

Environmental Factors,Managerial Processes,and Information Technology Investment Strategies

Although significant research attention has been directed at understanding the value of information technology (IT) investments for firms, very little attention has been paid to understand the IT investment behavior of firms. This article seeks to fill this void. We introduce the concept of IT investment strategy, defined by dimensions of intensity and proactiveness, to characterize the IT investment behavior of firms. Synthesizing the environmental deterministic and strategic choice perspectives of a firm's strategic decision making, we examine the effects of environmental factors, managerial processes, and the interplay between them on IT investment strategy. Specifically, we examine the impact of environmental factors such as industry clockspeed and information intensity on IT investment strategy. We also incorporate the strategic choice perspective to argue that managerial processes such as frequent chief executive officer—chief information officer communications and collective information systems planning play a critical role in shaping the firm's IT investment strategy. The empirical results show that the environmental variables are related to IT investment strategy. Besides, managerial processes serve as a means to understand the environment and thus moderate the relationships between the environmental variables and the various facets of IT investment strategy. The conceptualization of IT investment strategy and the focus on both environmental determinism and strategic choice should enrich our understanding of firms’ IT investing behavior.     

Choice experiments for estimating main effects and interactions

Choice-based conjoint experiments are used when choice alternatives can be described in terms of attributes. The objective is to infer the value that respondents attach to attribute levels. This method involves the design of profiles on the basis of attributes specified at certain levels. Respondents are presented sets of profiles and asked to select the one they consider best. However if choice sets have too many profiles, they may be difficult to implement. In this paper we provide strategies for reducing the number of profiles in choice sets. We consider situations where only a subset of interactions is of interest, and we obtain connected main effect plans with smaller choice sets that are capable of estimating subsets of two-factor and three-factor interactions in 2ⁿ and 3ⁿ plans. We also provide connected main effect plans for mixed level designs.     

新生代农民工市民化意愿的影响因素分析——基于广东省三市的调查

通过对广州、深圳、东莞三市外出务工人员的调查数据,运用理性选择理论,分析了新生代农民工市民化意愿及其影响因素。结果发现,年龄、性别、受教育程度和月收入都对新生代农民工的市民化意愿产生了影响;是否在城市购买住房、城市融入感和自我身份认同也影响了新生代农民工的市民化决策;购买城市社会保险显著提高市民化意愿。而务农经历、婚姻状况和是否获得技术等级证书则未对其市民化意愿产生影响。     

Older Persons’ Views on Using Cash‐for‐Care Allowances at the Crossroads of Gender,Socio‐economic Status and Care Needs in Vienna

The article aims to contribute to understanding social inequalities resulting from familization (or de‐familization) tendencies among cash‐for‐care beneficiaries in a Conservative welfare state. It highlights justifications for choices in accessing and using care in a cash‐for‐care scheme from the perspective of care recipients aged 80 years and older in Vienna. Along key dimensions characterizing care recipients’ experiences, we identify four different user groups, which reflect recipients’ individual characteristics, particularly gender, socio‐economic status (SES), and care needs, and the respective care arrangement. The groups are dubbed: (1) the self‐confident; (2) the illiterate; (3) the dependent; and (4) the lonely. Narrative interviews with 15 frail older people were held in 2014 and analyzed using the framework analysis method. Results show that familiarity with support structures associates with higher SES, while those who depend on others for acquiring information or organizing care express ambivalence in choosing between formal and informal care. Engagement in deciding which care type to use is limited among people of lower SES or with complex care needs, but own experience as informal caregiver for a family member increases care recipients’ long‐term care (LTC) system literacy. Gender differences among care recipients were limited, yet middle‐class female recipients often expressed normative claims for family care from female relatives. We conclude that unconditional care allowance schemes may reinforce existing gender relations, particularly among informal caregivers, as well as underpin socio‐economic differences among LTC users in old‐age. Results also partly question the assumptions of choice and empowerment implicit in many cash‐for‐care schemes.     

我国城市化与工业化发展问题探究

在工业化与城市化的发展过程中,客观上存在着彼此适应的均衡性要求.而在现实中,又经常存在着二者不相适应的不均衡性矛盾这一问题,其表现形式有两种:一是过度城市化,二是城市化不足.中国城市化与工业化不均衡性矛盾的总体表现是城市化不足,主要是由历史的继承性原因和制度与政策的推动性原因决定的.这一问题的解决不能依赖小城镇战略,因为它既违背世界城市化发展的客观规律,又违背广大农民的自主意愿.在现阶段,集中型城市化比较符合中国的实际,相应地政府的职能也必须做根本性转变.     

服务定制情境下选项的战略呈现:呈现框架对消费者选择的影响

在服务定制情境下,企业可以采用两种不同方式让消费者定制服务包:呈现完整服务包让消费者从中删除不想要的业务(减法式);呈现基本服务包让消费者选择添加所需附加业务(加法式).本研究考察了这两种不同的选项呈现方式对消费者心理反应和选择行为的影响,分析了业务类型与呈现方式之间的交互作用,通过以移动通信服务为背景的实验发现:(1)相对于呈现基本服务包来让消费者进行"加法"定制来说,消费者在完整服务包基础上进行"减法"定制时会选择更多数量和更高总金额的附加服务;(2)选项呈现框架与业务类型之间具有显著的交互作用.相对于减法框架,在加法框架下,实用型业务会比享乐型业务更有可能被选择;而在减法框架下,享乐型业务会比实用型业务更有可能被选择;(3)在减法框架下,消费者的反应时间更长,感知到的决策乐趣更高,对决策结果更不易后悔.但是,两种框架下消费者的心理冲突和决策难度没有显著差别.基于上述研究发现,作者讨论了本研究的理论意义和应用价值,并围绕企业如何通过有效的服务业务组合和战略呈现来创造利润提出了管理建议.     

幼儿园“茶文化”课程资源开发研究

无论是维系历史,还是滋养当代,中华优秀的茶文化都有其自身独特的价值。本研究在充分挖掘茶文化精华的基础之上,从物质、精神和制度三个维度来阐释茶文化在幼儿教育中的内涵,并从创设浓郁的幼儿园茶文化环境;精心研发茶文化主题活动课程;带领幼儿走近真实的茶叶之乡等三个方面来落实幼儿园茶文化教育,培养具有民族情怀、时代精神的儿童。     

影响信息系统应用效果的关键管理能力分析

本文根据管理基本职能和管理过程,将机构对信息系统的管理能力和信息系统应用效果分解为29个观测变量,运用结构方程模型,分析机构对信息系统的领导能力、计划能力、组织能力、控制能力、人事能力对信息系统应用效果的影响.研究表明,目前,计划能力、组织能力尚无法对信息系统应用效果产生直接影响:而领导能力一应用效果、领导能力一人事能力一应用效果、领导能力一控制能力一应用效果、计划能力一控制能力一应用效果形成了影响信息系统应用效果的四条关键管理路径.其中,领导能力对信息系统应用效果的影响最为强烈.     

上海国际金融中心的建设和政府定位

在 2 1世纪 ,现代金融能力对一国国民经济的重要性毋庸置疑 ,上海建设国际金融中心的进程不断加快。本文在分析国际金融中心两种模式的基础上 ,考虑到上海作为国际金融中心将承担的责任 ,认为融资型国际金融中心应该是上海必然的选择 ,并分析了上海建设融资型国际金融中心的现实条件 ,同时建议政府应该实行“有所为有所不为”的金融政策、完善信息通讯等基础设施、降低金融机构在上海的经营成本、培养专业人才、完善中介服务体系、加强国际交流 ,以提高上海作为金融中心的吸引力和竞争力。