Planning for the 1950 Censuses of Population and Agriculture

The change from the z of “Student's” 1908 paper to the t of present day statistical theory and practice is traced and documented. It is shown that the change was brought about by the extension of “Student's” approach, by R.A. Fisher, to a broader class of problems, in response to a direct appeal from “Student” for a solution to one of these problems.     

太平天国战争时期江西信丰的围城与守城——以吴秉衡《信丰守城记事略》为中心的讨论

自咸丰六年(1856)至同治三年(1864),信丰县城及县境经受了与太平军的多次战争,县城几番被围,最长的一次达二百二十余日。由于南赣官府、周边州县以及湘军的支援,另外署理知县吴秉衡的坚守,信丰县城得以保完。署理信丰知县吴秉衡的《信丰守城记事略》记载了太平军、匪寇围城的经过,该文献为认识咸、同时期江西地方史的重要史料,至今尚未得到学界的分析与解读。本文以《信丰守城记事略》等史料为主,讨论了太平军、匪寇的攻城策略,官府的应对措施以及信丰城乡战时的社会秩序等问题。     

Nonparametric regression with cross‐classified responses

In this article, we develop regression models with cross‐classified responses. Conditional independence structures can be explored/exploited through the selective inclusion/exclusion of terms in a certain functional ANOVA decomposition, and the estimation is done nonparametrically via the penalized likelihood method. A cohort of computational and data analytical tools are presented, which include cross‐validation for smoothing parameter selection, Kullback–Leibler projection for model selection, and Bayesian confidence intervals for odds ratios. Random effects are introduced to model possible correlations such as those found in longitudinal and clustered data. Empirical performances of the methods are explored in simulation studies of limited scales, and a real data example is presented using some eyetracking data from linguistic studies. The techniques are implemented in a suite of R functions, whose usage is briefly described in the appendix. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 591–609; 2011. © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

寻找快乐的家园——读王安忆长篇小说《上种红菱下种藕》

小说《上种红菱下种藕》表现了上海附近一个小镇上的特殊风景,这里的生活气息浓郁,且温情怡然,这里的人们质朴而善良,这些都是我们向往的最宝贵的东西。在现代化的进程中,经济的、科学技术的现代化一方面带来了富庶和繁荣,另一方面也刮走了精神中的营养。     

基于信号博弈的企业并购交易行为分析

企业并购是并购交易双方在追求各自利益最大化的前提下所进行的信号博弈过程。并购交易信号博弈分析表明,由于企业并购交易市场的信息不对称性和不完美性,企业并购交易将会出现市场完全成功、部分成功、接近失败和完全失败四种不同性质和效率的市场均衡,其中只有市场完全成功是最理想和有效率的均衡。但在具体的企业并购交易中出现哪种均衡,主要取决于企业并购交易博弈模型中不同质量目标企业的价值、交易价格、风险成本和质量高、低比例之间的相互关系。减少出现上述三种低效率均衡机会的最有效方法是克服企业并购交易市场的信息不对称性问题,并提高并购企业的识别能力。     

我国股票市场指数及指数证券投资组合

运用主成分分析法分析我国上海和深圳两个交易所几个市场指数对市场变化的反应情 况, 结果表明两个股票市场的综合指数和A 股指数可以反应市场的变化, 而其他指数不能反 映各自代表的股票市场变化. 由于这4 个指数都不是一个好的投资组合, 要得到与指数一致的 投资收益需要构造指数投资组合. 本文利用多因子定价模型, 结合统计分析和优化方法, 从每 个股票市场上选取20 余支股票, 经过适当的组合就可以得到与指数一致的收益.     

抚河河道的变迁

本文从抚河河道变迁的事实出发，得出其变迁的特点，分析其变迁的原因。提出应加固抚河右堤、疏通东汉河与开挖下游东分流河行洪的建议。     

Food security, consumption diversification and foreign exchange balances in Indonesia: Results from a multi-commodity simulation

Many countries adopt economic development strategies, within which an important element is the maintenance of low and stable food prices. In Indonesia, this is achieved principally through government subsidies to consumers of imported rice, the total cost of which fluctuates considerably from year to year, depending on world price movements and domestic production performance. Higher and possibly less stable domestic food prices appear inevitable in Indonesia, however, as the spectre of reduced oil revenues increases the government's concern with the cost of its food policy. Results from a stochastic simulation model of the agricultural sector show that the food price risk to which consumers and producers would be exposed in the absence of the stabilizing component of Indonesia's food policy would be considerable, rendering this component an unlikely area for significant change. A viable policy option appears to be the continuance of rice and wheat price stabilization, but with a graduated increase in the relative price of rice, reaching a total of 10% by 1985. Such a policy could result in net self-sufficiency in foreign exchange from staple food trade by 1990 and an improvement in aggregate economic surplus, although the expected decade improvement in food-energy consumption per capita would fall from 10% to 8%.     

《一间自己的房间》中的声音

该文选取了英国女作家弗吉尼亚•伍尔夫的长篇论文《一间自己的房间》,试图借美国马里兰州大学比较文学和女性研究中心教授苏珊•S•兰瑟的思路,将社会身份的声音和叙述形式的声音联系并结合起来,从叙事声音的角度切入,分析其背后所反映的现实中女性主义的声音,并借此梳理伍尔夫的女性主义思想。