Sequential and Simultaneous Decision Making for Optimizing Health Care Resource Flexibilities

Health care administrators commonly employ two types of resource flexibilities (demand upgrades and staffing flexibility) to efficiently coordinate two critical internal resources, nursing staff and beds, and an external resource (contract nurses) to satisfy stochastic patient demand. Under demand upgrades, when beds are unavailable for patients in a less acute unit, patients are upgraded to a more acute unit if space is available in that unit. Under staffing flexibility, nurses cross‐trained to work in more than one unit are used in addition to dedicated and contract nurses. Resource decisions (beds and staffing) can be made at a single point in time (simultaneous decision making) or at different points in time (sequential decision making). In this article, we address the following questions: for each flexibility configuration, under sequential and simultaneous decision making, what is the optimal resource level required to meet stochastic demand at minimum cost? Is one type of flexibility (e.g., demand upgrades) better than the other type of flexibility (e.g., staffing flexibility)? We use two‐stage stochastic programming to find optimal resource levels for two nonhomogeneous hospital units that face stochastic demand following a continuous, general distribution. We conduct a full‐factorial numerical experiment and find that the benefit of using staffing flexibility on average is greater than the benefit of using demand upgrades. However, the two types of flexibilities have a positive interaction effect and they complement each other. The type of flexibility and decision timing has an independent effect on system performance (capacity and staffing costs). The benefits of cross‐training can be largely realized even if beds and staffing levels have been determined prior to the establishment of a cross‐training initiative.     

Optimal Ordering Policies for Stochastic Inventory Problems with Observed Information Delays

Information delays exist in an inventory system when it takes time to collect, process, validate, and transmit inventory/demand data. A general framework is developed in this paper to describe information flows in an inventory system with information delays. We characterize the sufficient statistics for making optimal decisions. When the ordering cost is linear, the optimality of a state‐dependent base‐stock policy is established even when information flows are allowed to cross over time. Additional insights into the problem are obtained via a comparison between our models and the models with stochastic order lead times. We also show that inventory can substitute for information and vice versa.     

需求率受推广努力水平影响的新能源汽车租赁系统协调契约

考虑由新能源汽车租赁企业和政府组成的二级系统,在需求率为随机且与推广努力水平相关的市场环境下,建立了新能源汽车租赁企业和政府之间的博弈模型,探讨了分散决策、集中决策、收益共享与成本共担契约下的最优车队配置和推广努力水平,并对三种情形下的最优决策进行了比较和分析。研究结果表明：在分散决策情况下无法实现系统协调,通过引入成本共担与收益共享组合契约,当契约参数满足一定条件时,该组合契约模型不仅可以实现系统协调而且可以使系统成员达到帕累托改进。最后通过算例分析,验证了模型了可靠性和有效性。     

产需不确定下基于零售商风险规避的三级供应链组合契约模型

针对产需不确定下单一供应商、制造商和风险规避的零售商组成的三级供应链系统,建立了分散和集中情况下的最优决策模型。通过设计风险共担和GL组合契约实现了三级供应链的协调。讨论了风险规避零售商的最优订购决策,分析了风险规避对供应链期望效益的影响。比较了风险规避和风险中性两种情况下零售商的最优决策。探讨了组合契约的协调问题及契约参数之间的关系。研究表明供应链的期望利润随着产需不确定的增加而减少,风险规避下零售商的期望利润低于风险中性时的期望利润,零售商的期望利润随着风险规避程度的加大而减少,零售商最优订购量随风险规避程度的增加而变化。最后数值算例验证了模型和契约协调的有效性。     

面向服务的复杂成形装备产品架构设计与优化

复杂成形装备作为高端制造产业的基础装备,是各产业转型升级和技术进步的重要保障。同时快速发展的互联网与大数据等新兴信息技术已经成为装备制造业创新不可或缺的组成部分,极其深刻地影响着复杂成形装备产业的制造模式、发展战略以及产品的开发方式。本文研究了面向服务的复杂成形装备产品架构设计与优化方法。采用公理化设计的域结构思想,建立需求域、功能域和架构域之间的映射关系;提出了基于QFD的功能生成方法以及功能模型约简方法;利用DMM建立产品架构和服务架构之间的关联关系;利用模块化理论方法,并考虑成本因素对产品架构进行优化。     

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA)

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three‐step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk‐exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk‐benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice.     

Integrating risk and performance management in quality management systems for the development of complex bespoke systems (CBSs)

Abstract

Risk and performance management are at the core of complex bespoke systems (CBSs). CBSs are developed to customer–specified requirements in terms of structure, functionality and conformance. This article examines how risk and performance management are integrated as essential systems in the successful development of projects across multi-organizational functions in complex bespoke system (CBS) organizations. The article argues for the development of a quality management system that consists of two sub-processes: quality control and quality development. Using three case studies from engineering companies, we provide evidence and insights of the way change control, quality development and quality performance are developed in innovating business solutions.     

Facilitation and Dialogue as Methods of Reflective Practice in Professional Education

Students may fear sharing their learning in public because classrooms are not traditional places where we teach skills needed for mutual understanding, such as facilitation and dialogue. This is a pedagogical challenge for planning, policy, and design fields because contemporary teaching requires collaboration among participants. We propose that learning to work collaboratively in the classroom has broader relevance for practice because it mirrors the learning that happens in organizations. To address this opportunity, we trained students in facilitation and dialogue. In this article, we discuss the design, implementation, and outcomes of this intervention.     

中国企业渠道联盟关系影响因素研究

渠道联盟被认为是渠道关系中最高、最好的形式。学术界对渠道联盟关系影响因素的研究主要集中在承诺、信任、沟通与合作等方面。本文实证研究了影响中国企业渠道联盟关系的若干因素及其影响程度,特别是探讨了私人关系和行政因素等的影响程度。