各省区季度GDP数据质量评估

  国内外学者对我国GDP数据质量的质疑重点已从年度数据转到季度数据,从全国数据转向地方数据。本文通过设计一套较为系统且可操作性强的季度GDP评估指标体系,运用空间面板数据模型对各省区的季度GDP数据质量进行了实证检验。结果表明,整体来看,中国各省区季度GDP同各经济指标的匹配性较好,数据质量较高,并不存在明显的失真现象;从时间上来看,每年一、二季度的GDP存在一定程度的高估,而每年三、四季度的GDP则存在一定程度的低估,但是这种偏差在统计上不显著;分地区来看,尽管一半省区的季度GDP存在一定程度的高估,另一半省区存在一定程度的低估,但大部分省区高估或低估的程度在统计上不显著。文章进一步分析了其中的原因。     

“后新儒学”对传统儒学实践观的省察

通过对牟宗三道德形而上哲学的反思,"后新儒学"认为当今儒学发展的关键在于其实践观的转变。传统的实践观内缩于心性修养和道德形而上的探求,主要偏向于道德的维度。"后新儒学"融摄马克思主义和船山哲学,提出以社会历史生活为总归的新的实践观,此种实践观旨在克服儒家传统实践观的缺陷,真正进入生活世界。     

How performance management regulations shape evaluation practice in South African municipalities

South African municipalities are taking hesitant steps towards institutionalising evaluation practice. This paper explores how evaluation is being institutionalised at a municipal level, looking at both the legislative and regulatory requirements in terms of planning, budgeting, and reporting, as well as opportunities for evaluative practice. A well-established performance management system, coupled with certain constraints to innovation and building an evaluative culture are contributing to the creation of an evaluation function that serves a monitoring purpose. A combination of desktop research and participatory action research was used to understand the municipal practice of evaluation. The results have implications for how decentralised public sector evaluation systems are understood.     

基于BP神经网络的油气产量历史预测

分析了常规油田开发模型所存在的问题;探讨了应用神经网络技术进行油气产量历史预测的可行性。油田实际资料验证评价结果表明:该法模拟预测精度高,效果好,简单实用,不失为油气产量动态预测的一条新途径。     

Between power and perception: Understanding youth perspectives in participatory monitoring and evaluation (PM&E) in Ghana

Participatory monitoring and evaluation (PM&E) approaches have been touted as an important concept for local participation in social interventions programmes. Utilizing a process analysis approaches, the PM&E data gathered through key informant interviews, formal surveys, and policy frameworks were analyzed. The study revealed three dominant power struggles between youth and programme implementers in three districts at the Greater Accra region, Ghana. The first and pervasive form of power dynamics involves the youth and programme implementers. The second involves a variety of arrangements with the government on one hand and implementers and youth on the other side. The third is who qualifies to be a beneficiary and for that matter participate in the PM&E. In these three forms of power struggles the paper reveals superior implementers control of who participate in the programme PM&E and at what stage in the process. The power imbalance between programme implementer and target beneficiaries impeded the level of beneficiaries’ participation in the PM&E.     

The participatory design of a performance oriented monitoring and evaluation system in an international development environment

This article illustrates the application of the impact monitoring and evaluation process for the design and development of a performance monitoring and evaluation framework in the context of human and institutional capacity development. This participative process facilitated stakeholder ownership in several areas including the design, development, and use of a new monitoring and evaluation system, as well their targeted results and accomplishments through the use of timely performance data gathered through ongoing monitoring and evaluation. The process produced a performance indicator map, a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation framework, and data collection templates to promote the development, implementation, and sustainability of the monitoring and evaluation system of a farmer's trade union in an African country.     

Designing centralized waiting lists for attachment to a primary care provider: Considerations from a logic analysis

Access to a regular primary care provider is essential to quality care. In Canada, where 15 % of patients are unattached (i.e., without a regular provider), centralized waiting lists (CWLs) help attach patients to a primary care provider (family physician or nurse practitioner). Previous studies reveal mechanisms needed for CWLs to work, but focus mostly on CWLs for specialized health care. We aim to better understand how to design CWLs for unattached patients in primary care.In this study, a logic analysis compares empirical evidence from a qualitative case study of CWLs for unattached patients in seven Canadian provinces to programme theory derived from a realist review on CWLs. Data is analyzed using context-intervention-mechanism-outcome configurations.Results identify mechanisms involved in three components of CWL design: patient registration, patient prioritization, and patient assignment to a provider for attachment. CWL programme theory is revised to integrate mechanisms specific to primary care, where patients, rather than referring providers, are responsible for registering on the CWL, where prioritization must consider a broad range of conditions and characteristics, and where long-term acceptability of attachment is important. The study provides new insight into mechanisms that enable CWLs for unattached patients to work.     

发展干预项目的有效性评估：功能定位与操作难题

发展干预项目的评估是确定发展目标、发展效率、干预影响以及可持续性同项目实施之间的相关性的过程。它至少包含两方面的现实功能,学术层面上,是回应当前知识界对于发展项目是否真正有效的学术争论的最直接手段;实践层面上,能够对特定发展项目的持续或中止进行合法化描述。发展干预是由多元因素长期共同作用下产生的改变,要展示其项目多大程度上推动了发展变迁,是一件十分困难的事情,其操作性难题主要包括：复杂社会系统中干预效果的归因偏差议题;阶段性影响与最终效果的关系平衡议题;普遍性与情景化的评估方法的采用偏向议题;项目评估的时间节点的动态选择议题。操作性难题归结成最重要的一点,其实就在于如何判断发展干预行动是否真正推动了减贫发展与社会变迁。     

Evaluation of Embedded Intelligent Real‐time Systems*

Over the past two decades, questions have surfaced about the effectiveness and contribution of intelligent systems to decision makers in a variety of settings. This paper focuses on the evaluation challenges associated with intelligent real‐time software systems that are embedded in larger host systems. With the proliferation of such systems in operational settings such as aerospace, medical, manufacturing, and transportation systems, increased attention to evaluations of such systems, and to resulting software safety, is warranted. This paper describes one such evaluation and proposes a set of evaluation criteria for embedded intelligent real‐time systems (EIRTS). Implications of the evaluation and the evaluation criteria are discussed.