Program Evaluation and Causal Inference With High‐Dimensional Data

In this paper, we provide efficient estimators and honest confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects including local average (LATE) and local quantile treatment effects (LQTE) in data‐rich environments. We can handle very many control variables, endogenous receipt of treatment, heterogeneous treatment effects, and function‐valued outcomes. Our framework covers the special case of exogenous receipt of treatment, either conditional on controls or unconditionally as in randomized control trials. In the latter case, our approach produces efficient estimators and honest bands for (functional) average treatment effects (ATE) and quantile treatment effects (QTE). To make informative inference possible, we assume that key reduced‐form predictive relationships are approximately sparse. This assumption allows the use of regularization and selection methods to estimate those relations, and we provide methods for post‐regularization and post‐selection inference that are uniformly valid (honest) across a wide range of models. We show that a key ingredient enabling honest inference is the use of orthogonal or doubly robust moment conditions in estimating certain reduced‐form functional parameters. We illustrate the use of the proposed methods with an application to estimating the effect of 401(k) eligibility and participation on accumulated assets. The results on program evaluation are obtained as a consequence of more general results on honest inference in a general moment‐condition framework, which arises from structural equation models in econometrics. Here, too, the crucial ingredient is the use of orthogonal moment conditions, which can be constructed from the initial moment conditions. We provide results on honest inference for (function‐valued) parameters within this general framework where any high‐quality, machine learning methods (e.g., boosted trees, deep neural networks, random forest, and their aggregated and hybrid versions) can be used to learn the nonparametric/high‐dimensional components of the model. These include a number of supporting auxiliary results that are of major independent interest: namely, we (1) prove uniform validity of a multiplier bootstrap, (2) offer a uniformly valid functional delta method, and (3) provide results for sparsity‐based estimation of regression functions for function‐valued outcomes.     

关于刘半农的评价问题

刘半农是我国新文学运动的倡导者之一 ,考查他后期的思想轨迹和生活道路 ,发现与鲁迅先生在《且介亭杂文·忆刘半农君》中所批评的情形不符合。应当实事求是地给予公允的评价。     

应用灰色关联度分析法评价毛竹种源的研究

应用灰色关联度分析法，对毛竹9个种源10个测试指标进行了量化评估，通过各种源加权关联度的比较，较为全面、客观地评价了各种源在不同经营目标上的优劣，为确定适宜推广的种源提供理论依据。     

"鞍钢宪法"的历史教训与我国跨越式发展战略

组织革命是跨越式发展的基础。战后以来 ,西方发达国家的经济组织正经历着从福特制向后福特制的转变。“鞍钢宪法”与日本模式曾同为后福特制的先驱 ,但与日本模式启发了知识经济在组织上的变革有很大不同 ,不利的国际结构制约条件、制度变迁的路径依赖以及对生态资源条件的不恰当认识等使“鞍钢宪法”无法成长为未来组织演变的基础。“鞍钢宪法”为我国跨越式发展战略提供了重要启示 :对世界发展潮流高度敏感并对直觉意识不断反思 ;利用传统的文化和组织资源实现制度创新 ;不断突破思维和视野的局限 ;探索后福特制在我国发展的道路     

后现代主义与现代主义、马克思主义关系的再思考

后现代主义的崛起在现实性上有两大根源 :一是两次世界大战 ,尤其是第二次世界大战的爆发 ;二是科技领域所发生的巨大变革。后现代主义与现代主义是并蒂共生的统一体。后现代主义是从现代主义派生出来的。利奥塔和哈贝马斯认为 ,后现代主义就其实质而言 ,就是“重写”、“重振”现代性。某些西方哲学家认为 ,马克思主义与后现代主义有着紧密的关联 ,因此 ,有“解构的马克思主义”和“后现代的马克思主义”。实际上 ,马克思主义不是一种后结构主义或后现代主义 ,也不存在所谓的“解构主义的马克思主义”、“后现代主义的马克思主义”。但二者的关系的确是一个有待于深入研究的重大课题。     

浅谈90后职业学校学生现状及教育管理

本文结合90后职业学校的学生特征及原因分析,从班级管理和学生个性发展等方面提出,要在课堂管理、师生互动等上建立新型的师生关系成为职校学生教育管理的发展方向和有效途径。     

东北地区大城市现代化水平比较研究

以东北地区主要城市为研究区,采用AHP法用反映城市现代化不同侧面内涵的经济现代化、城市建设现代化、社会现代化与科技教育现代化四个层次20项指标构建城市现代化水平评价指标体系,分析实施振兴东北老工业基地重大战略以来各城市现代化发展变化。研究表明,2005-2010年东北地区的城市化进程明显加快,但位序上没有发生变化,依次是大连、沈阳、长春和哈尔滨。同时也表明长春与哈尔滨的城市化水平离现代化还有一段距离,但处于快速发展阶段。城市化各子系统分析还表明实现城市现代化需要在发展经济的同时协调好各个方面的关系以便共同提高。     

北京山区生态农业的功能定位、模式与评价指标体系

北京山区生态农业包括三项基本功能,这就是水资源与环境功能、经济功能和社会文化功能。北京山区在长期的生产实践中,逐步形成了两种类型的生态农业模式:一种是农户生态园式的生态农业模式;另一种是产业化经营式的生态农业模式。北京山区生态农业的评价应从系统结构、系统功能、系统效益三个方面进行整体评价。通过系统评价,择优选择系统结构合理、系统功能较强、系统效益良好的生态农业模式。     

The implications of the Lima target: Explorations with a world industrialization model

The Second General Conference of the UNIDO held in Lima in 1975 declared that the share of developing countries in total world industrial production should reach 25% by the year 2000. The model presented in this article has been constructed in order to investigate whether this target is consistent with other more generally accepted goals of development and is feasible within the area of production and trade possibilities.The model is a dynamic, multisectoral, multiregional input-output model. It focuses on the impacts and mutual consistency of targets of growth, regional income distribution, industrialization, consumption levels, and trade. In the empirical application three periods, three regions, and nine sectors have been distinguished to produce intersectorally, interregionally, and intertemporally consistent accounts for the main variables. Since the study is concerned with the maximum possible growth of industrial output of the developing countries, a linear programming approach has been used.The report is organized as follows. After an introduction, the second section describes the mathematical model. The third section contains a detailed explanation of the data basis and of the assumptions made to stimulate the model. The numerical results of the model are discussed in the fourth section, and the main conclusions are given in the fifth.     

辽西地域人文历史与生态环境变迁研究：清代盛京大凌河东马厂的设置、放垦与建治研究

大凌河马厂是清代著名的马厂之一。大凌河马厂分为两个部分,即西马厂和东马厂。因为东马厂地势低洼,加之设置的时间较晚,开垦的时间较早,多年来为学界所忽视,论说者易陷入误区。通过研究中国第一历史档案馆馆藏的朱批奏折和军机处录副奏折,对大凌河东马厂的设置、放垦与建治等问题重新进行了梳理,力求在事实清楚的基础上进行分析和研究,以期对此地的历史发展和社会变迁给出完整且清晰的线索,从而恢复对清代大凌河马厂的整体和全面认识。