采取有效措施 预防艾滋病蔓延

我国自 1985年发现首例艾滋病患者以来 ,艾滋病在中国的流行经历了传入期、播散期 ,目前处于快速发展期。建议有关部门采取新的、更完善的措施 ,以便更有效地预防、控制艾滋病的发生及蔓延。     

信用证欺诈及其防范对策

作为国际贸易主要支付方式的信用证 ,被誉为“国际商业的生命液”。但是一些不法分子却利用信用证单证交易的特点 ,相互勾结串通 ,在信用证运转的各个环节上疯狂地实施欺诈活动 ,给权益人造成巨大的经济损失 ,影响企业的正常发展 ,损害银行信誉 ,破坏交易秩序 ,危及整个信用证制度。因此 ,信用证各方当事人应对信用证欺诈进行有效的预防 ,本文就预防信用证欺诈的原则性措施和技术性措施进行了论述。     

Conditional time-dependent nonparametric estimators with an application to healthcare production function

ABSTRACT

By using the probabilistic framework of production efficiency, the paper develops time-dependent conditional efficiency estimators performing a non-parametric frontier analysis. Specifically, by applying both full and quantile (robust) time-dependent conditional estimators, it models the dynamic effect of health expenditure on countries’ technological change and technological catch-up levels. The results from the application reveal that the effect of per capita health expenditure on countries’ technological change and technological catch-up is nonlinear and is subject to countries’ specific income levels.     

A new extension of the FGM copula for negative association

In this paper we introduced a single parameter, absolutely continuous and radially symmetric bivariate extension of the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) family of copulas. Specifically, this extension measures the higher negative dependencies than most FGM extensions available in literature. Closed-form formulas for distribution, quantile, density, conditional distribution, regression, Spearman's rho, Kendall's tau, and Gini's gamma are obtained. In addition, a formula for random variate generations is presented in closed-form to facilitate simulation studies. We conduct both paired and multiple comparisons with Frank, Gaussian, and Plackett copulas to investigate the performance based on Vuong's test. Furthermore, the new copula is compared with Frank, Gaussian, and Plackett copulas using both Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises type test statistics. Finally, a bivariate dataset is analyzed to compare and illustrate the flexibility of the new copula for negative dependence.     

Systemic risk statistics with scenario analysis

In this paper, we introduce two new classes of risk statistics, named convex and positively homogeneous systemic risk statistics, respectively. Structural decomposition results and representation results for them are provided. These new risk statistics can be considered as a kind of systemic risk extension of risk statistics introduced by Kou, Peng, and Heyde, and also empirical versions of system risk measures introduced by Cehn, Iyengar, and Mollemi and Kromer, Overbeck, and Zich. Finally, some examples are also given.     

Some Results Based on a Version of the Generalized Dynamic Entropies

We propose new dynamic measures of uncertainty based on the notion of generalized dynamic entropy introduced in Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (2006). These can uniquely determine distribution functions in continuous and discrete cases, and the characterizations of some well-known distributions are provided. We also define some orderings and aging notions based on the generalized dynamic measures, and prove some of their properties, obtaining as corollaries results that have recently appeared in the literature.     

Multilevel models for longitudinal data

Summary.  Repeated measures and repeated events data have a hierarchical structure which can be analysed by using multilevel models. A growth curve model is an example of a multilevel random-coefficients model, whereas a discrete time event history model for recurrent events can be fitted as a multilevel logistic regression model. The paper describes extensions to the basic growth curve model to handle auto-correlated residuals, multiple-indicator latent variables and correlated growth processes, and event history models for correlated event processes. The multilevel approach to the analysis of repeated measures data is contrasted with structural equation modelling. The methods are illustrated in analyses of children's growth, changes in social and political attitudes, and the interrelationship between partnership transitions and childbearing.     

Closeness centrality via the Condorcet principle

We provide a characterization of closeness centrality in the class of distance-based centralities. To this end, we introduce a natural property, called majority comparison, that states that out of two adjacent nodes the one closer to more nodes is more central. We prove that any distance-based centrality that satisfies this property gives the same ranking in every graph as closeness centrality. The axiom is inspired by the interpretation of the graph as an election in which nodes are both voters and candidates and their preferences are determined by the distances to the other nodes.     

关于实施非物质文化遗产保护工程的若干思考

非物质文化遗产的衰落是必然的,要做好保护工作,就要发掘其自身的生长要素,从而采取相宜的措施。这些措施主要有提高民众的自觉意识、实现可能的功能转换、政府的重视和支持等几个方面。实施非物质文化遗产保护工程,要防止只做“搭台”的角色、搞“官员工程”、脱离群众、不看对象搞“一刀切”、过度开发和文化造假。     

Intensity and persistence of individuals' social exclusion in Australia

We construct a measure of social exclusion that recognises its multidimensionality at the individual level, including its potential variability in intensity at a point in time and in persistence over time. We distinguish seven dimensions or domains of social exclusion: material resources; employment; education and skills; health and disability; social; community; and personal safety. For each of these seven domains, several indicators of social exclusion are produced. Our exclusion measure identifies 20 to 30 per cent of the Australian population aged 15 years and over as experiencing ‘marginal’ or worse levels of exclusion at any given point in time. However, there is considerable variation in both the extent and persistence of exclusion among the excluded. We further find that, although there are commonalities in the demographic composition of the socially excluded and the income poor, there are also some important differences. For example, persons 65 years and over represent a much smaller share of the most ‘excluded’ group than they do of the ‘poorest‘; and – adopting a household‐level measure of exclusion – children represent a larger share of the excluded than they do of the poor.