A new extension of the FGM copula for negative association

In this paper we introduced a single parameter, absolutely continuous and radially symmetric bivariate extension of the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) family of copulas. Specifically, this extension measures the higher negative dependencies than most FGM extensions available in literature. Closed-form formulas for distribution, quantile, density, conditional distribution, regression, Spearman's rho, Kendall's tau, and Gini's gamma are obtained. In addition, a formula for random variate generations is presented in closed-form to facilitate simulation studies. We conduct both paired and multiple comparisons with Frank, Gaussian, and Plackett copulas to investigate the performance based on Vuong's test. Furthermore, the new copula is compared with Frank, Gaussian, and Plackett copulas using both Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises type test statistics. Finally, a bivariate dataset is analyzed to compare and illustrate the flexibility of the new copula for negative dependence.     

Managing Demand Risk in Tactical Supply Chain Planning for a Global Consumer Electronics Company

We consider the problem of managing demand risk in tactical supply chain planning for a particular global consumer electronics company. The company follows a deterministic replenishment‐and‐planning process despite considerable demand uncertainty. As a possible way to formally address uncertainty, we provide two risk measures, “demand‐at‐risk” (DaR) and “inventory‐at‐risk” (IaR) and two linear programming models to help manage demand uncertainty. The first model is deterministic and can be used to allocate the replenishment schedule from the plants among the customers as per the existing process. The other model is stochastic and can be used to determine the “ideal” replenishment request from the plants under demand uncertainty. The gap between the output of the two models as regards requested replenishment and the values of the risk measures can be used by the company to reallocate capacity among different products and to thus manage demand/inventory risk.     

A General Formula for Valuing Defaultable Securities

Previous research has shown that under a suitable no‐jump condition, the price of a defaultable security is equal to its risk‐neutral expected discounted cash flows if a modified discount rate is introduced to account for the possibility of default. Below, we generalize this result by demonstrating that one can always value defaultable claims using expected risk‐adjusted discounting provided that the expectation is taken under a slightly modified probability measure. This new probability measure puts zero probability on paths where default occurs prior to the maturity, and is thus only absolutely continuous with respect to the risk‐neutral probability measure. After establishing the general result and discussing its relation with the existing literature, we investigate several examples for which the no‐jump condition fails. Each example illustrates the power of our general formula by providing simple analytic solutions for the prices of defaultable securities.     

辽宁海洋水产业可持续发展中几个问题的探讨

通过分析海洋水产业可持续发展的多方面的影响因素──海洋环境污染、海洋生物污染、海洋环境资源的过度开发利用、科技进步、海洋水产业的综合管理等,针对目前辽宁省海洋水产业发展中存在的近海生态环境恶化、养殖病害大规模流行、近海渔业过度捕捞、水产科技落后于产业发展等问题,提出了大力发展海洋水产科学技术、综合治理近海环境、恢复生态平衡、引进和培育优良品种、建立海洋生物种质资源库等对策。     

国有企业兼并的障碍因素分析

当前我国国有企业兼并受到不少因素的制约, 主要有： 政府在企业兼并中的角色冲突、产权交易市场和中介机构不发达、缺乏有效的长期资金来源、产权关系模糊、法律法规及政策措施不健全、资产评估不规范、地方保护主义严重、企业债务负担沉重、社会保障制度不健全等     

Comparing two measures of creatinine clearance: an application of errors-in-variables and bootstrap techniques

Two indices of creatinine clearance (an index of kidney function) are compared on a group of cancer patients who underwent chemotherapy with a potentially nephrotoxic drug. The standard index, measured creatinine clearance MCC, is cumbersome to use, whereas the more convenient alternative, estimated creatinine clearance ECC, has not yet been conclusively evaluated on cancer patients. We conclude that under certain clinical conditions ECC and MCC are identically calibrated for males, but not for females, and we obtain estimated true and false positive rates for assessing the use of ECC instead of MCC as a diagnostic tool. We use a model that is formally equivalent to an errors-in-variables model with (unbalanced) repeated observations and correlated measurement errors. The bootstrap is used to obtain standard errors and confidence limits.     

当前高校学风滑坡:现状、成因与对策

高等学校的学风滑坡现象令人忧虑。主要表现在缺乏基本的学习动力、严谨的学习态度、刻苦的学习精神、良好的学习道德四个方面。其矫正对策为:强化教学过程管理,培养学生严谨的学习态度;强化学分学籍管理,培养学生严明的纪律观念;强化学习诚信教育,培养学生优良的学习品德;强化基础素质教育,提高高校招生生源质量;强化社会综合治理,优化高校的办学环境。     

创建服务型政府研究——以广州市深化行政审批制度改革为例

深化行政审批制度改革,对于加快转变政府职能,建设服务型政府,预防腐败,具有重要意义。近年来广州市加大行政审批制度改革的力度,削减一大批行政审批项目,取得了一定的成效。但行政审批制度改革仍有一些亟待解决的问题,需要我们不断地探索和完善。     

多媒体外语教学手段在俄语教学中的应用

从采用计算机技术、利用多媒体手段辅助语言教学的角度 ,分析了多媒体外语教学系统的构成和作用 ;以外语教育现代化的发展和需求为市场定位 ,探讨了如何结合俄语教育目的、语言学习特点及学校的实际情况 ,开展现代化俄语教学 ,最大程度上满足学习者的需求。     

绿色建筑发展和推广的国外经验借鉴

国外绿色建筑发展的实践表明,以可持续发展原则为指导的立法是实现建筑可持续发展的保障,政府采取的经济激励措施调动了投资者和消费者的积极性,而在制定和完善绿色建筑评估认证体系中,相关的行业组织则发挥了重要作用,同时,绿色建筑的教育和培训计划畅通了信息交流的渠道,扩大了市场需求。