浅析女大学生就业难

就业是民生之本,现阶段总体就业形势严峻。随着高校的大规模扩招,毕业生总体供大于求。大学生就业难仅仅是一般劳动就业问题,女大学生就业难除了劳动就业问题以外,还附带有劳动力市场上的性别歧视问题。本文首先对女大学生的现状进行分析,然后对女大学生就业难提出具体有针对性的对策,以便消除女大学生就业中的"性别歧视",实现男女大学生的平等就业,充分发挥女性人力资源的重要作用。     

利率期限结构预测、国债定价及国债组合管理

国债利率期限结构是固定收益产品定价和投资组合管理的核心问题。本文利用NARX（Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous inputs）神经网络模型研究利率曲线的运动机制,拟合并预测利率期限结构,在此基础上利用Hermite插值方法构造平滑的利率曲线并计算得到国债理论价格及其预测值。实证分析发现我国国债定价效率不足,交易价格显著偏离理论价格,但国债的理论价格的实际值和预测值均对交易价格具有显著的预测能力。基于上述发现本文提出了主动国债组合管理策略,通过预测的期限结构得到国债理论价格的预测值构建的多空对冲组合和单边多头组合均能获得显著的收益。本文的研究丰富了利率期限结构的研究方法,提出的主动国债组合管理策略对通过交易提高国债定价有效性具有参考价值。     

住房价格、土地价格与地方政府行为

本文基于中国35个大中城市2005至2015年的面板数据,通过构建具有“空间依赖”性质的房价地价空间面板联立方程模型,深入研究房价与地价关系、地方政府行为对房价和地价的作用机制以及城际间的相互作用。研究表明,临近城市间的房价相互“模仿”并一同推动地价上涨,房价对地价的影响呈现“模仿促进”的作用特征;各城市通过尽可能抬高本地地价来拉大与临近城市地价水平的差距,进而推高房价,实现“以地生财”。此外,研究还证实地方政府通过“价格途径”和“政策途径”均能对房价进行有效调控,且“价格途径”具有一定的传染性;而“数量途径”和“结构途径”作为地方政府控制地价的有效手段,具有较强的溢出效应。     

The rise of Trump and an agenda for regulatory reform

The arrival of Trump in the White House does not augur well for the long-run prospects of the US economy. The protectionism that is gathering steam under his presidency may yield some short-term gains, but at the detriment of the long-run. Examining the discontent among ordinary voters that brought Trump to power, this paper argues that this should be treated as an opportunity for a major regulatory reform. With the advance of digital technology, we have increasing returns to scale, and that, in turn, is making our antitrust laws backfire and hurt the well-being of ordinary people, thereby sowing discontent. The paper builds a simple model to illustrate this and makes the case for revoking the older antitrust laws and replacing them with some simple profit-sharing rules at the level of the firm, and the economy.     

我国35个大中城市房价-持久收入比研究

房价收入比是反映居民购房可支付能力的重要指标。为了更真实准确反映我国居民长期承受的购房负担,本文基于持久收入假说,利用我国35个大中城市数据,建立状态空间模型,估计出持久收入意义下的房价收入比,通过情景分析确定其合理上限,并分析主要特征。研究表明：①我国房价-持久收入比的合理上限为7.6,2002-2013年35个大中城市的房价-持久收入比均值是9.2,其中28个城市已超过该上限,比值最高的北京已达到14.9;②城市越发达,则房价-持久收入比越高,居民需要承受的购房压力越大,且在时间趋势上,一线与二三线城市间的差距呈现扩大趋势;③在地理分布上,我国东部、中部、东北地区、西部大中城市的房价-持久收入比呈现从高到低的排列顺序;④相比于传统方法中根据可支配收入测算的房价收入比,房价-持久收入比与其约有10%的差异。当前我国政府应采取有效措施继续限制房价,减轻居民购房负担。     

An adjusted cumulative Kullback-Leibler information with application to test of exponentiality

Abstract

In order to discriminate between two probability distributions extensions of Kullback–Leibler (KL) information have been proposed in the literature. In recent years, an extension called cumulative Kullback–Leibler (CKL) information is considered by authors which is closely related to equilibrium distributions. In this paper, we propose an adjusted version of CKL based on equilibrium distributions. Some properties of the proposed measure of divergence are investigated. A test of exponentiality based on the adjusted measure, is proposed. The empirical power of the presented test is calculated and compared with some existing standard tests of exponentiality. The results show that our proposed test, for some important alternative distributions, has better performance than some of the existing tests.     

住房价格应该纳入通货膨胀的统计范围吗？

 本文分别从度量生活成本和执行货币政策的角度研究住房价格是否应该纳入通货膨胀的统计范围。从度量生活成本的角度看,应该将住房价格纳入CPI的统计范围,然而本文的文献回顾表明,如何在CPI的统计框架下妥善处理住房价格仍然没有一致的结论。从执行货币政策的角度看,考虑到核心通货膨胀更适合作为货币政策的通货膨胀目标,本文研究了住房价格对核心通货膨胀的影响,发现住房价格对我国核心通货膨胀的影响微乎其微。这表明,如果稳定物价是货币政策的唯一目标,则货币政策无需考虑住房价格。然而,由于我国的货币政策需要兼顾多个目标且住房价格会显著影响产出水平,所以从稳定产出的角度看,货币政策仍须重视住房价格。     

租售比与房地产市场宏观调控

我国房地产业发展历程充满着关于房地产泡沫的争论。近年来,随着房价的上涨,这种争论持续升温。房地产泡沫一旦发生,将给国家的经济和社会生活带来严重的后果,因此,防范房地产泡沫的发生具有重要的现实意义。本文通过对我国房屋租售比现状的分析,指出了我国住宅销售价格过高,住宅需求更多地体现为投资和投机的需求,住房价格中存在着泡沫。在此基础之上,本文就我国房屋租售比失调的成因进行了简要的讨论,并针对房地产市场宏观调控提出了一系列建议。     

An Examination of Factors Affecting Perception of Workplace Discrimination

This study investigates perceptions of workplace discrimination among racial minorities in Canada. Specifically, the study examines how objective experiences of disadvantage and expectations for equity influence racial minorities’ perceptions of discrimination. The results indicate that while both of these factors affect perceptions of discrimination, expectations for equity may be especially important. Although new immigrants are among the most disadvantaged groups in the Canadian labor market, they are less likely to perceive discrimination than longer term immigrants, who may have higher expectations for equitable treatment. Education also increases the perception of discrimination among immigrants, perhaps due to the higher expectations of educated immigrants. Lastly, objective income inequity is not found to be related to perceived discrimination.

Price Incentives and Coordination in a Two‐Product Decentralized Supply Chain

We investigate pricing incentives for competing retailers who distribute two variants of a manufacturer's product in a decentralized supply chain. Under a two‐dimensional Hotelling model, we derive decentralized retailers' prices for the products, and distortions in pricing when compared to centrally optimal prices. We show that price distortions decrease as consumers' travel cost between retailers increases, due to less intense competition. However, price distortions do not change monotonically in consumers' switching cost between products within stores. To fix decentralized retailers' price distortions, we construct a two‐part pricing contract that coordinates the supply chain. We show that the coordinating contract is Pareto‐improving and analyze increase in the supply chain profit under coordination.