蒋介石与援闽粤军

蒋介石与援闽粤军(含东路讨贼军)的关系是其军事生涯的起点和重要环节,对其一生有很大影响。总的来看,他能站在孙中山一边,其军事才华得到锻炼与释放;但同时.他个人性格中的弱点也暴露无遗,主义不真,功名利禄思想过重,是这一时期蒋的真实写照。     

Family-Centered,Community-Based Asset Building: A Strategic Use of Individual Development Accounts

This research examines individual development account (IDA) programs as part of a broader community development strategy for low-income/low-wealth communities, particularly communities of color. Through a review of multiple literatures and detailed case studies, we explore the potential of explicitly creating a community-based, family-centered development account program as a step toward a comprehensive community asset building approach in low-income urban neighborhoods. From the perspective of IDA practitioners, such an approach provides program participants with local support networks and access to additional services. From the perspective of grassroots community organizers, such an approach provides tangible benefits to low-income residents of their neighborhoods. The likelihood of success may depend on the availability of local resources to build areas of strength and reduce vulnerabilities, but there are examples where a family-centered, community-based asset building approach seems to thrive.     

Social Support and Depression Among Low Income Elderly

Abstract

Demographic, functional and social characteristics of residents living in a low-income senior housing complex are explored. These variables and perceptions of social support were analyzed for their effects on depression. The strongest predictor of depression was perceptions of social support. The findings are consistent with the research which shows that support through family and friends is important to consider when older adults experience health problems that lead to functional disability.     

Predicting State Investment in Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services, 2000–2011

Although state use of Medicaid home- and community-based services (HCBS) to provide long-term services and supports to older adults and individuals with physical disabilities continues to increase, progress is uneven across states. We used generalized linear models to examine state factors associated with increased allocation of Medicaid dollars to HCBS for the period 2000 to 2011. We observed enhanced growth in states that began the period with limited investment in HCBS, as reflected in significant year trends among these states. The political environment appeared to be an important influence on states’ investment for states with limited initial allocation to HCBS, as was housing affordability, a policy amenable variable. There continues to be wide variation in states’ relative investment, calling for additional policy attention and research.     

论价格同盟对消费者剩余的影响

消费者在社会经济生活中的地位是由现代社会分工体系引发并决定的。消费者权益是现代市场经济体制的内在要求和必然产物。在我国社会主义市场经济条件下，消费者剩余对于经济增长的影响愈渐显得重要，深入研究价格同盟对消费者剩余的影响，不仅具有理论意义，而且具有实践意义和政策意义。我们应该运用市场经济理论中的消费者剩余理论来分析价格同盟的危害，并采取相应措施，解决价格同盟问题，保护消费者权益。     

基于大数据的碳价预测

为了研究大数据是否能够帮助我们预测碳排放权价格,本文讨论了结构化数据和非结构化信息对预测碳价所起的作用。结构化数据选取了国际碳现货价格、碳期货价格和汇率,非结构化信息选择百度搜索指数和媒体指数。考虑到当解释变量很多时,平等对待每一个解释变量是不合理的,所以提出了网络结构自回归分布滞后（ADL）模型,在参数估计和变量选择的同时兼顾了解释变量之间的网络关系。实证分析表明,网络结构ADL模型明显优于其他模型,可以获得较高的预测准确性,更适合基于大数据的预测。     

人力资本、要素价格与配置效率

要素相对价格左右着要素配置效率,是影响TFP的重要因素,本文将劳动要素细分为普通劳动与人力资本的基础上,运用随机前沿超越对数生产函数模型估计31个省市TFP变动,据以观察要素配置效率对TFP的影响,模拟要素价格在其中的作用。主要结论如下：(1)2003年以来要素配置效率呈负增长,是TFP增长率下降的最主要原因;(2)东部TFP增长率高于中西部且差距趋于扩大,与此相伴随的是东西部之间要素配置效率差异以更快的速度趋于扩大,进一步表明要素配置效率对TFP增长的制约;(3)要素价格是影响要素配置效率的直接原因,要素价格的扭曲在现阶段总体上表现为物质资本要素价格相对偏高;(4)分别模拟物质资本价格下降、人力资本和普通劳动价格上升,结果显示均改善了要素配置效率并相应地实现TFP增长,其中物质资本价格下降起着最显著的改善作用。为此,要重视市场环境建设并让市场在资源配置中起决定作用,从要素配置效率上推动TFP增长。     

国际油价波动对中国经济影响的一般均衡分析

本文构建动态可计算一般均衡模型来定量研究国际石油价格上涨对我国经济的影响。研究结果表明,国际石油价格上升不利于我国实际GDP、投资、居民收入和进出口等主要经济指标;技术进步是抵消国际油价上升的重要工具。最后,本文根据数量结果提出了一些政策建议。     

Modeling Electricity Price Using A Threshold Conditional Autoregressive Geometric Process Jump Model

Electricity market prices are highly volatile and often have high spikes. Both government authorities and market participants require sophisticated models and techniques for forecasting future prices and managing relevant financial risks in such a volatile market. This article extends the conditional autoregressive geometric process (CARGP) model (Chan et al., 2012 Chan, J. S.K., Lam, C. P.Y., Yu, P. L.H., Choy, S. T.B., Chen, C. W.S. (2012). A Bayesian conditional autoregressive geometric process model for range data. Computat. Statist. Data Anal. 56:30063019.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to the CARGP model with thresholds and jumps, which is abbreviated as CARGP-TJ model in this article. We will demonstrate that the proposed CARGP-TJ model not only captures the unique features of the electricity price but also performs better than other existing models. For robustness consideration, a heavy-tailed error distribution is adopted. Model implementation relies on the powerful Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques via WinBUGS software. The analysis of the daily maximum electricity prices of the New South Wales, Australia reveals that the proposed CARGP-TJ model captures the price spikes well for both in-sample estimation and out-of-sample forecast.     

ICP与CPI关系比较和整合研究

广义上看,全球国际比较项目（ICP）和消费者价格指数（CPI）都属于价格统计的范畴。比较分析发现,虽然二者在理论基础、测度目标等方面存在差异,但在原始数据类型、指标生成过程、编制方法和原则等方面相同或非常相近,为二者关系的协调和整合提供了理论支撑。在此基础上,探讨了ICP与CPI整合的总体思路,从基本、扩展和系统三个层面研究二者整合的方法,并提出若干政策建议。