试论邓小平人才资源管理思想

邓小平人才资源管理思想是邓小平理论的重要组成部分。本文论述了邓小平关于人才总体性开发、人才结构配置、人才环境优化等管理思想,以及我国人才人事工作努力实践邓小平人才资源管理思想取得的巨大成就。     

资源约束项目计划内在稳健性与资源使用效率关系

资源约束项目计划的内在稳健性受资源使用效率的影响,查明二者之间的影响关系,可为稳健性的项目计划制定和项目计划稳健性的预测提供依据。文章应用16种优先规则对Kolisch的j30算例集中的480个算例制定项目计划,计算出各项目计划的资源使用效率,通过仿真的方法得到各项目计划的内在稳健性值;实验结果表明,项目计划的内在稳健性与资源使用效率之间存在显著的负相关关系,即资源使用效率越高,项目计划的内在稳健性越低,这与直觉一致。     

制定管理信息系统(MIS)总体规划的方法

本文论述了制定管理信息系统总体规划的方法。自顶向下逐层分解与自底向上逐层综合是制定总体规划的有效方法。文章详细讨论了使用这一方法的过程和有关的辅助方法,包括确定規划范围的总体法(Portfolio),定义职能领域、职能、管理活动和有关实体的自顶向下分析,确定系统结构的实体分析与组合、实体活动分析和U-C数据库计划。     

古村落保护整治规划中的有机更新——以休宁县石屋坑村保护整治规划为例

针对目前古村落保护整治利用中存在的机械单一保护古建筑的现象,引入"有机更新"的规划理念,以休宁县"百村千幢"工程——石屋坑村保护整治利用规划为例,从古村落的规划布局、总体形态、道路系统、建筑、村落环境等多方面进行有效更新,突出古村落的特点,盘活古村落,让其重新焕发生机和活力。规划针对古村落的现实状况,从管理机制、政策法规制订、资金筹措等方面提出具体有效的更新措施,以确保古村落保护整治利用规划的实施。并希望以此为案例,探讨适合古村落自身特点的保护对策和实施路径。     

基于消费者品牌偏好的Hotelling博弈模型

Hotelling模型假设异质产品的单位运输成本相同,其结果是产品价格相等时均分市场,这一结论无法解释市场竞争中的品牌效应。本文假设在Hotelling模型中产品单位运输成本存在差异,以区分消费者不同的品牌偏好,通过分析Nash博弈均衡与Stackelberg博弈均衡下运输成本对产品价格、市场份额、厂商利润以及社会福利的影响,得出消费品牌偏好是制定产品竞争策略的重要依据。     

“教育是国之大计、党之大计”论断的三重逻辑

习近平总书记站在中华民族伟大复兴的高度,从党的长期执政和社会主义事业长治久安的战略目标出发,提出了“教育是国之大计、党之大计”的重要论断。这一论断是我们党在新时代对教育重大战略地位的新认识,体现着历史逻辑、理论逻辑与实践逻辑的统一。探析这一论断的历史逻辑进程、科学理论内涵以及实践根源和发展路径,对我国教育改革发展具有重大指导意义。     

Reliability acceptance sampling plans for the Weibull distribution under accelerated Type-I censoring

Type-I censored reliability acceptance sampling plans (RASPs) are developed for the Weibull lifetime distribution with unknown shape and scale parameters such that the producer and consumer risks are satisfied. It is assumed that the life test is conducted at an accelerated condition for which the acceleration factor (AF) is known, and each item is continuously monitored for failure. Sensitivity analyses are also conducted to assess the effect of the uncertainty in the assumed AF on the actual producer and consumer risks, and a method is developed for constructing RASPs that can accommodate the uncertainty in AF.     

USING CONJOINT ANALYSIS TO PREDICT TRIAL AND REPEAT-PURCHASE PATTERNS OF NEW FREQUENTLY PURCHASED PRODUCTS*

A new approach is proposed to evaluate new-product opportunities. This approach uses the distribution of brand-purchase probability of the new product over a population of potential customers and the outputs from conjoint analysis. The heterogeneous distribution of brand-purchase probability is expressed by a beta binomial brand-choice model compounded with a negative binomial product-class purchase-incidence model. The resulting model provides a way to predict trial and repeat-purchase patterns of new-product concepts. The paper discusses the development of the model. It also discusses issues of measurement, estimation, testing, and implementation of the proposed approach based on actual empirical data.     

A powerful and efficient algorithm for breaking the links between aliased effects in asymmetric designs

Fractional factorial (FF) designs are no doubt the most widely used designs in experimental investigations due to their efficient use of experimental runs. One price we pay for using FF designs is, clearly, our inability to obtain estimates of some important effects (main effects or second order interactions) that are separate from estimates of other effects (usually higher order interactions). When the estimate of an effect also includes the influence of one or more other effects the effects are said to be aliased. Folding over an FF design is a method for breaking the links between aliased effects in a design. The question is, how do we define the foldover structure for asymmetric FF designs, whether regular or nonregular? How do we choose the optimal foldover plan? How do we use optimal foldover plans to construct combined designs which have better capability of estimating lower order effects? The main objective of the present paper is to provide answers to these questions. Using the new results in this paper as benchmarks, we can implement a powerful and efficient algorithm for finding optimal foldover plans which can be used to break links between aliased effects.     

Estimating function method for product autoregressive models

The first-order product autoregressive (PAR(1)) model introduced by McKenzie in 1982 McKenzie, E. D. (1982). Product autoregression: A time series characterization of the gamma distribution. Journal of Applied Probability 19:463–468. [Google Scholar] did not attract the attention of practitioners due to the unavailability of a proper estimation method. This article proposes an estimating function (EF) method to fill the gap. In particular, we suggest an optimal combination of linear and quadratic EFs to overcome the problem of parameter identification. The procedure is applied to Weibull and Gamma PAR(1) models. Simulation and data analysis show that the proposed method performs better than the existing methods.